A fund manager explains how he uses stage analysis, a framework based on price cycles, to manage $50 million across stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto. He argues cycles are universal: cells divide and die, credit tightens and loosens, markets boom and bust. The same pattern repeats everywhere.
In a trading strategy, or really in any strategy and system, you want it to be based off timeless principles. And in the universe, you know, one phenomenon that comes up time and time again is the concept of cycles, cyclicality. You think about, you know, from life, you have the cell cycle. I was a bio major. You have the cell cycle, you know, cell division, it goes through, and then eventually cells die. And our bodies have processes of destroying cells and then creating new cells. In the business world, you have a business cycle, you have boom and bust in the business cycle. You have the credit cycle with the Fed jacking up interest rates, pulling it back down, the loosening and tightening monetary policy. In the markets, you have the economic cycle, and then we're going to talk about the price cycle today. His price cycle is called stage analysis, and we will find out why it's timeless. You'll see this repeat in equities, commodities, fixed income, crypto, all the asset classes.
