Short advice on identifying and validating a trading ‘edge’: define a repeatable criterion that gives you a higher-than-50% probability of success (example: ~60%), then backtest across market conditions to find when it does/doesn’t work, forward-test with small real-money stakes, and scale/tweak gradually.
So an edge in the market is where you have a higher probability in a trade going in your favor than not. Let's just say There is a 60% of a probability of a trade going higher. You essentially have an edge. Now, the idea is identifying what is the criteria of that edge. Once you identify the criteria, go and back test it, applying it, looking at different market days and saying, well, does it work? Does it not work? What are the criteria that make it work? What are the criteria that don't make it work? And then forward test it. Once you do that, put a little bit money in, minimal risk, test it out, and then start tweaking it with real capital and real markets.
