ICT Dissed me... Here's My Response

Kardec Trader responds to ICT's dismissal of volume profile and order flow trading with live examples and technical analysis. He accuses ICT of misattributing concepts like fair value gaps and order blocks, and questions his track record and credibility.
Chapters
So ICT dissed me, Patrick Neil, Fabio Valentini, Umar Ashraf, Carmen Rosato, and the entire order flow trading community that order.
Flow is absolutely still bullish. No Level 2 required, and achieved again.
His constant goal as drama queen of the trading space of making people talk about what he said. I'll give him that much. He definitely knows how to spark drama and controversy. Did I take the bait? Of course. I've already answered with the reel, and it went decently viral. And I think now he's realizing that slowly, people are not only waking up about him, but about all of his concepts and the myths and lies that he has perpetuated for decades now. But I want to break down what he says and why it's absolutely crazy, because he didn't just bashed on volume profile itself and order flow as a tool, saying it's some Mickey Mouse concepts, but also proceeded ranting for, I think, a good five minutes about how he controls the market and. And went absolutely balloony, which is something that, Michael, we always see you doing when you're in a difficult situation, when your back is against the wall, you start having that crazy laugh voice. So we're gonna have some fun reacting to that as well. And I'm gonna respond because 200,000 people saw this, so it deserves an answer. So the first tweet he debuted in the order flow space is this one. It wasn't addressed to me or to Fabi or to Patrick directly, but, you know, over the last two months, who has been the biggest order flow ambassadors in the trading community? It's been me, it's been Fabio, it's been Patrick Neil. And of course, people like Carmine and Umar have done it already for a bunch of years now, so it was pretty clear who he's trying to talk to. And he starts by saying, volume profile holds no advantage over anything else used in retail concepts, which is already demonstrably false. How much volume is reported at any given price has zero impact on the measure of buying and selling by smart money. Well, actually, volume reported at any given price is. Is the measure of buying and selling of smart money. But he forgot that part. Then some other bullshit. Then. If you cannot read candles and forecast your gambling, what? And then the absolutely phenomenal. This is real order flow. Oh, my God. This guy has been looking at candles and saying, this is real order flow. While we are saying look at order flow to see real order flow. Like, do you understand how. How. How out of reality this guy is? But the real mic drop came From Patrick, my 7, and Fabio's 4 Robins cup podium trophies says different. And he didn't even answer to this because how can you after you fail that competition four times? Fabio did not join the party directly, but then he clearly stated a candlestick trader. Calling orderful data marketing is like a doctor dismissing MRI machines as hype equipment and locating fractures by poking your leg. This is not analysis. That's archaeology. Yeah. So to be honest, I expected this response from ict. I was just, honestly just waiting for it already just come out because it was just obvious that part of our campaign to conquer the trading space and basically be super loud about order flow was let's take ICT concepts, which are the most common thing people are trading as of today. And there is something special to it because they are trying a way that works sometimes in a way that completely is misleading to read order flow. They are trying to it. I mean, I mean, listen to how they're talking. They're talking about order blocks, they're talking about bullish order flow, about orders, about stop orders, stop runs, and all of this stuff that is simply order flow language. You're talking about order flow dynamics, about how orders interact with each other. And then this guy pops up and Patrick pops up and Fabio pops up. They win the championships and they start saying on the Internet, well, you know what? All of this is like dump money concepts, actually, because the real smart money is order flow. But the actual one, the one you can read, the one you can see, the one where you don't have to interpret or guess that there is a fair value gap or there's an imbalance in order flow, or there stops being triggered because you can actually see the orders entering in real time in the markets. And we've made it so obvious and so loud that this guy felt his back against the wall because his reputation is trashed over already. Iman Trading did that amazing job with exposing him. Not just him, but a bunch of other people. But no one was able to take his concepts and dissect them like we did and show what's really behind them and where he took it from. Because of course, that's clearly where he took it from. Fair value gaps were, let's say, something he quote unquote authored. But fair value concepts and auction concepts have been there since the 80s, since James Dalton invented the market profile and then the volume profile. Order flow traders started in the early 2000s where he was still on baby pips. Now let's take a look at the rent and react to it, okay?
In everybody's ideas of inefficiencies is it completely closes in the inefficiency. That means this candlestick's high right here. It would touch that a la Chris Lori. Okay. Does it touch it? No. Look real close, see that it doesn't touch it and say, that's what I want. That's what I want, folks. And this level here is the consequent encouragement right there. We'll darken it up. Right there. See that? And by the way, I don't want you guys trolling Chris. Laurie. I'm not saying this for all of you to act like wild wolves and. And hyenas and go over there and start messing with him. That's not what this is. But I'm so sick and tired of two or three people come to my email box every month or so and say you stole Chris Lorre's concepts because you did. Crap.
Yeah, sure, bull crap.
I'm just being the upstanding man and not bringing out the receipts proving it. Ask him. Ask him if he gave me free access to his stuff.
Free access. He didn't. Even if you bought it, you still access his stuff. And I texted him, I know what happened, Michael. And it's obvious, okay? It's obvious. He came up with all this liquidity ideas, liquidity, voids, stop hunts, and all of this stuff that then you created a cult out of, which was an amazing job. You did. Like, congrats on that. But he authored it first. And there's like no question about it. There's absolutely no question about it. So this is just false.
Ask me. Ask him if he'll. If he'll be honest about that, because that's exactly what he did. And tell him to share the emails that he sent to me that I can produce. I can produce all that stuff. I'm just not that kind of person. I could be wrecking everybody. All these people have all that stuff about me on their websites and their YouTube channels, making money off of it. I could wreck all of them, but I don't lose sleep over it. They need to do those things. And I'm still out here untouched. Consequent encroachment, untouched.
They only exposed you so badly.
It wicks down through it. Now, as soon as it creates that. That wick down here and it doesn't completely close in and comes right back up, I already know at that point that order flow is absolutely still bullish. No level two required.
Oh, really?
Footprint. New volume profile. I'm not looking at volume nodes. Point of control. The control is me. I'm Controlling. I'm controlling it. I'm controlling where this is going to go next. I know it's going to 70.5.
Get it guys? He's controlling price Action. A guy from his bedroom that, as Iman often remembers, was living in this place before selling courses and in this place after selling courses, which is a legit business. But when you claim that you control the markets, that you coded the algorithm that moves the markets, bro, if you really did that, you would be a multi billionaire from trading alone. But you've never shown any trading, any real trading, and the only time you did live, you completely made a fool out of yourself. I mean, I don't understand how people still listen to this guy, but the impact he's had is just remarkable.
I know it is. And yes, yes, you 20 year olds, that pisses you off because I sound arrogant. I sound like I know everything. I don't know everything. But at that moment right there, I absolutely know I don't know everything.
But I quoted the market and Jim Simons, the one of the most brilliant mathematicians of the markets and thousands of people who have studied the market academically and hundreds of Nobel prizes throughout the ages never realized this. But a YouTuber and course seller who never even actually traded somehow has the key to the. Bro, like, come on. I mean, this is like. We all agree that this is clearly delirium, right? This is indisputable, right?
I absolutely know that everybody else that isn't using what I'm teaching is clueless. You are blind leading the blind.
This is a good one. You are the one using candlesticks over here, okay? You're the one using candlesticks and you're saying to people using X rays that we are blind, Brah, isn't this just an oxymoron?
And that's the facts, Jack, because this didn't deliver all the way down to where it could have and it didn't.
Oh, thank you very much, Mr. Hindsight. It didn't where it could have, but it did. And see, when it did this, it's because of this and when it did this and it's because of that. You know what? Let me tell you something. He has built, as he says, a reputation on a fucking demo account. Not even a demo account on past chart data. 2 million followers. The most viral sensation in the trading retail world based on a guy looking at past charts and talking convincingly. Isn't that awesome? Doesn't this show how gullible and vulnerable people's minds are? It's just a Very fascinating. Like should be studied in schools. They should research this shit. This is absolutely fascinating. And unlike him, we actually where he did some live trading and completely lost like it was an embarrassing moment for him and for all of the ICT community where he went live and lost a bunch of money. Well, guess what me and Fabio did over the last one month. We went live in front of our community and literally called every single market movements before it happened and actually opened trades. Something he has never done successfully publicly by using the same things he says are completely useless. Let me show you some examples. Examples. This is part of the Deep charts bootcamp and you can go and check this out. This was December 8th, and on December 8th the prior day's volume profile clearly showed a situation imbalance. We know that buyers aren't ready to push price any higher. And the following day price starts clearly auctioning lower. And we take a confirmation with the volume profile and with the footprint chart and with the level 2 data and we take two trades live and unsurprisingly they all run to the target. And this is just me. Like this is not even the good trader of the dynamic duo. Fabio is the amazing trader. I'm not going to even show you guys how crazy his live trading was because you've seen it already on the chart Fanatics podcast and probably on the Words of Wisdom podcast. So I'm just going to show you mine. This was a long idea that we executed on November 24, where thanks to the volume profile and thanks to order flow data, we clearly saw buyers taking control of the auction. Big trades of smart money, the real ones, entering the market with our proprietary MBO data based indicator that filters fractioned iceberg orders and put them all together in one big order. So it basically helps you filtering the noise of smart money actually trying to hide with icebergs, which is something that ICT has not even an idea how this works. And because we saw this, then we entered our long position, it gave us also another test. And will you look at that in front of hundreds of people live we hit another target and we weren't able to do it because we control order flow and we control price and we control the algorithm we invented, we authored everything. And it's me, me, me is because we're just doing a such a stupid job which is just reading, reading orders, reading the interaction between buyers and sellers. And we know that 80% of that order flow is smart money. We know because of the COT report that more than 60% of the volume traded in the S&P is trade by 8 or less market participants. We know that a big part of that order flow is moved by option market makers and how they hedge their delta and vanna exposure, which is tough. That is the bare reality of financial markets is quantitative, undeniable data that this guy is choosing not to follow. Understandably, you don't 100% need order flow to become profitable. I'm not dumb enough to say that. I'm not dumb enough to combat a dogma with another dogma. You can be profitable with candlesticks by themselves, yes. But saying that you can control market with it, saying that this is the ultimate way of reading the market, saying that candles are real order flow while you're not using real order flow and denying the most basic realities of market mechanics is absolutely foolish and bullshit.
And it closed up there. So now I'm expecting what? We got a new wick. We got a new wick. What do you do with that? What do you do with that?
No, he's not going crazy.
Measure it. What do you mean? You measure it. What do you mean? That sounds silly. Who's measuring wicks? Was it Elliott Wave?
He's acting cool because he's measuring candlesticks. Bro. You can measure orders. You can measure the orders that are creating the wicks, and you can read them in real time, and you actively choose not to. You are the blind leading the blind, my dear Michael.
Was it the pitchfork crowd? No. That's so silly.
Oh, my God.
Supply and demand. Talk to me. Talk to me about Wyckoff. I'm gonna. I'm gonna point something. It's sitting right there in front of you right now. Find it in Wyckoff.
Find what in Wyckoff? The 50% of a wick. Of course you're not gonna find it in Wyckoff because Wyckoff was smart. Actually smart. And in p. Paper with a tape, not with the screens. You're able to. And we're all able to use now in pieces of paper. He understood the concepts of auction market theory way before anyone. We all know it. We all know it. The liquidity grab. He invented it in the 1920s. You didn't discover anything, ICT come on. But, yeah, of course. Wyckoff was not drawing a Fibonacci and drawing a 50% of a wick.
Ooh. What?
Find it. Not there, of course. But it's where I said it's going to be.
Yeah. Beforehand.
We're inside in the buy program. It's.
In hindsight in a buy program going.
Higher order flow is bullish. Okay, here's the lower quadrant level of that wick. When order flow is bullish. But there's a nice big order right below this low ict. What are you going to do about that? I'm going to ignore it.
Do you understand it? He literally said order flow is bullish. And he's looking at candlesticks and we are saying well look at actual order flow. What?
But there's an iceberg order right below this low ict.
He's so funny. He's so funny. An iceberg on the DXY on the dollar index which is not even a thing that you can trade other than CFDs. An iceberg order on a synthetic index. Like do you not even know what you're talking about Iceberg below here you cannot see it before like even know what an iceberg is. And it's basic market mechanics thing. It's the most common way smart money hides their order in plain sight. And he doesn't even know what the an iceberg is. Oh my God.
He's so.
I'm going to ignore it.
Sure.
I'm going to ignore it. Why? Tell me, tell me why? Well, because I spent some time.
Well, why? Because of Fibonacci levels, of course. How didn't I think about that?
Teaching that these things dollar index has this wicked. And we're bullish. The next candle opens right there. Now watch. It's at some point after that opening, it's trading down to the upper quadrant. That's permissible. Absolutely permissible. And then it trades down to consequent encouragement. Remember I knocked that line here. It'll appear when I put the rectangle back.
Consequence. Encouragement. He definitely needs some encouragement.
I mean that's permissible. We do not want to see the body left underneath that.
Yeah, but well, well, well. You know what's going to drive that body?
Orders.
Why don't you look at them so you can time better your entries with a precision that ICT traders can only dream about.
But can it trade to there? That's a lower quadrant or the mid quadrant of that wick. This is the fair value gap. Consequent encouragement.
Still talking in past charts still show some live trades, bro. Show some real live action, join a competition or even show just a normal track record like I did. No, it's been 20 years in industry, never done once actually done it. But every time he tries to do it, he either fakes it, he either fails the Robin's cup and burn 91% or he burns 97% on a public account or he live trades and has the profit factor of my grandma farting on my keyboard to open trades.
Right. When this candlestick closes, what's in place in price action? This candlestick's low.
Blah, blah.
This candlestick's low. And now this candlestick's high.
Like he's not really debating the main points, right? I wish he did. I'm probably gonna make a video and dissect, he's saying in his mentorships and show you how that's completely disproven through order flow. Except maybe for fair value gaps, which are just low volume notes. And it's the only thing that sort of makes sense of this whole thing here.
So this is a swing low. Anything at this candlesticks open to low is a good buy. It's a discount. It's a real, real good buy.
Thank you very much.
In hindsight, we open up on a new week up here.
He's in a weekly chart. Boom, boom.
Really? I'm gonna speed this up a little bit. Listen, folks, listen.
I'm listening.
Low risk buy is always, always, always inversion fair value gap if it offers it to you. If there is no fair value gap over here. Shut up, bro. This smart money reversal forms the very first bullish fair value gap that forms.
That's a failed auction.
Risk buy.
Why do you have to call it inverse fair value gap? Liquidity. Stop loss hunting, grabbing, Judas swing, turtle soup, bro. It's a failed auction. Why you have to make it sound so sophisticated? That's what make made him popular, to be honest, because he made it feels like it's a science. He worked with his words and made it feel like it's actually real, but it's a complete bunch of horse crap.
If it's reversed, it's going to be your low risk cell. Always, always, always, always, always deviating from that. Find that in white golf. Read it in Elliot.
Is he. Is he freaking out again? This is the same crazy guy. But let me find it. I need to find it. This is the same voice he does when he's. Now I'm gonna show you this video. And this is ICT ranting after he's lost the Robin's cup and he was seen from the whole world for what he is, which is a total fraud. And listen to the voice heat up. Listen to how crazy he goes. He starts laughing and shouting, robin's Cup.
Like that's a challenge. I am going to win that. I don't know why you guys are sitting here pretending like I forgot about it. I didn't forget about it. I know exactly what the I'm doing. I'm gonna part the Red Sea and I'm running to the top of that and none of you're gonna be near me. So get your sound bites out of that because that's what's coming. And yes, I'm gonna win the Robin's Cups to stop sending emails. Emails. Okay? It's in the bag. Trust me on that. Okay? I told you all I would give you a drama, I'll give you a tragedy. But at the end of the year, it's my name at the top of that list, okay? So just, just, just relax, keep making your videos because you look stupid. Exposed. ICT failed Robin's Cup. That's just going to make it even better. Here's what happened. I went in the Robin's cup and I sat there and I pushed and pushed and pushed and pushed and pushed and pushed and put pushed and I pushed that account down to $900.
This like all of these laughs.
And it just so happens that my strike rate generally is around 90.
Is it 90 or is it higher generally?
I, I in my personal trading is 96.
Eight years after ICT's humiliating six month 97 loss and multiple failed Robin's cup attempts. Only uploading wins on Twitter tricked the Frau believing his own lies which led to a catastrophic two day rise and fall of one of his first real trading live streams ever. But what happened after is the real story.
You don't think they're watching me? You have seen me do things with trades with accounts and I've called things on Twitter live minute by minute. And you're gonna get a taste of that here. Visually folks, I would have paid money for someone to teach me what I'm going to show you today. And you're getting it for free.
After going 95 into profit, his first trade fell to the 300 stop loss.
Oh, he took a loss.
Trade number two briefly looked good before the 200 loss, which is all it took to get a sample of what would come later.
There you go. I'm sitting here thinking how many of you are putting stop loss there? And the 15,000 are watching. Oh, that's 15,000 stop losses right there. Let's run right through that.
You know what's the cool part? So this was the only time he live traded, right? And the only time he live traded. He got stopped out so many times he embarrassed the shit out of himself. And he claims that all of the people that were watching 15,000 people placed a stop loss there. Do you know how Fast price will move on the NASDAQ. E mini futures. If there was 15,000 stop losses in the NASDAQ there, it would move so up you'd have no idea. And we could verify it. We could go now and backtest through any order flow platform like deep charts and get back in the past and check that candle. I'll bet your ass there's less than 5,000 contracts in that candle, let alone in that specific tick. Because guess what? From order flow we can see stop loss are getting triggered. We can see it. And when you start seeing it, you realize this whole narrative is bullshit. Because stop losses of retail traders are such a negligible and ridiculously small amount of the orders that enters the market daily. So to claim that market moves to hunt them. It's the most outrageous bullshit conspiracy theory I've ever heard in my entire life. And bear with me, I used to believe this too. Because the story's compelling. Because cults work this way. They give you an easy answer to complex phenomenon. What's the meaning of life? God? What happens after death? Heaven. What was the origin of life? God. Easy answers. Why does this happen? It's not your fault. They're trying to trick you, that's all. ICT is easy answer to the most complex entity in the world, which is financial markets that everyone from academics to Nobel prizes to people like Jim Simons with a team of mathematicians and PhDs and quant analysts all over the world all together could not frame down to a single logic. But stop loss hunting retails is the answer the algorithm. Come on, come on, bro.
And for the final trade of the day, an immediate reversal would make it three losses in a row and a total of minus 740. Doll.
Some of you might be thinking, well, you know, why did you take, you know, three stop outs today, ICT? I mean, you're supposed to be, you know, Mr. This and Mr. That. Well, I am Mr. This and that.
Okay, now for day two, surely it goes better with no excuses, right?
Look at that. You guys are following my stops. If I place my stop publicly and people are going to be following me in a large degree, that's creating an engineering liquidity. There's your stop.
If you're going to place your stop loss and you're following me for a large degree and that's going to create an engineer liquidity.
What?
What?
And just so you know, go back and that day he said they hunt a stop loss here, but afterwards this happened. All stop loss hunting guys, don't worry, we understood this ridiculous, right? We we already understood it. But. But, but that's the point. Okay, let's get back to his rant.
First stage accumulation, Michael. Oh yeah. Take a note, brother. The next fair value gap. It has to have an order block. Order block. Fair value gap. First stage accumulation, like order block is.
Literally an engulfing candle, bruh.
Low hanging fruit 70.5. And that buy side. And that inefficiency I told you about in September. What the running October. It delivered to it perfectly.
Price is going to go up. Price is going to go down. It delivered to it perfectly. What the.
I scaring the hell out of some of you people are brand new. I want to make sure you're paying attention. Here comes your unicorn. This is the biggest run. The strongest always will behave as an inversion. Fair value gap. Yep. See volume profile, boys. They gotta wait for these volume things to form. They gotta wait.
You have to wait for two to form. Candles and volume happen at the same time. He doesn't even know this. What? I didn't even hear this part. This first time hearing, boy.
Yep. See volume profile, boys. They gotta wait for these volume things to form. They gotta wait for.
You have to wait for candles to form too. You talk like you're talking about real time stuff, but you're talking about candles that already happened months ago. What are you talking about?
To see what the point of control is.
Who? If you think that the most important part of the volume profile is the point of control, you've understood nothing about order flow because of how algorithmic activity works. The point of control itself, the one tick level, can be random. What's important is the area where most volume was traded. The standard deviation or the high volume peak. Not the point of control. Who cares about the point of control? You ict because it's the only thing you've read in a book 20 years ago. There's so much more to the volume profile. I've explained it in many videos on the channel. Please go and check at it. But he doesn't even know what he's talking about. I, Michael, seriously give a chance to order flow and volume profile. I can teach you. I can call champions from the Robins cup and they will teach you, okay? We can teach you. We can coach you. We can open trades together and maybe the next Robins cup you'll be profitable. What do you say?
See the difference there? You gotta wait until it tells you what it is. I'm telling you where my shit is gonna form.
No you didn't. You've drawn this line on a past Chart. So it's. You're doing exactly the same thing we're claiming we're doing before it happens.
The logic is always there. It's always there. Always.
Yeah, right.
Never deviating. Never.
Never.
There's no cherry picking. There's no form fitting required. Oh no. The same stuff.
Sure, sure.
Whatever. Time based delivery over, over and over again. So we have the drop down in here first. Fair value gap there. You can buy that. That's institutional order flow entry drill. That drop rate.
Institutional order flow like shut the up. Shut up. Stop talking about bullish. Order flow and institutional. Or you're not using order flow. You're trying to guess what order flow might have done by looking at candles. That is not order flow, my dear friend. That is price action. We have used candlestick charts starting in the 1800s. Wake the up. Do yourself a favor and study. Or real order flow. Because you're constantly talking about order flow like you were watching it and you're watching the result of order flow. Which is still fine. Which is still fine. You can. But stop claiming it. It's you're looking at order flow. Stop bullshit. Stop shitting on order flow. Unreal order flow. And respect the same orders that you're trying to guess from. Candlesticks. Be a good boy.
Right here. Rips another one here. Order block. Draw that out. Hits it again. All time distortion. Order block.
Order block. In a one daily chart. A daily candle is an order block. And his whole idea. Right? We're in the daily chart. Okay. Imagine this like truly. Let's do this game and let's truly imagine this. Imagine Euro dollar. The most liquid thing on the planet. Probably okay. From here they went all over here to hunt for some retail traders. Stop losses. Isn't that awesome? They moved. Billions after billions after billions after billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions. Why in the daily timeframe, huh? So this is what fucking I don't know how many pips? 140 since 1400 pips. They moved billions of dollars. Imagine billions and billions in the market to hunt for some stop liquidity. If you actually used the volume profile, even an approximation of it. Because Forex. We all know it doesn't have it, right? We don't. We don't. We all know it doesn't have real volume in this price distribution. You would see your volume profile doing something like this. Right where most of the auction happened inside here. And you will see right where the reason of every market movement you claim is same thing over here you'll see that there's the lowest volume. And what is volume traded orders, order flow that was actually executed, not spoofed orders in the order book, not ghost orders and layered orders in the order book and in the depth of market, real executed liquidity. You will see that in these areas the lowest amount of liquidity is traded. And they would move billions and billions. Because it was all a plan. Because someone, some. Some guy, some God told ict, right? Because they wanted to hunt some stop losses. Do you really believe that even here price moves billions of dollars of banks because of fundamentals reasons? After months and months of monetary policies decisions and macroeconomist catalysts changing the geopolitical dynamics of the entire world and the financial space being flooded with quantitative tightening and easing and liquidity in liquidity out interbank situations, inflation going up and down and the employment. All of these reasons, all of these macro analysts at every single bank and hedge funds. But no, all of these billions were not because of all of this. Were because there were some stops above here. Can you hear yourself talking, bro? Like are we serious? Like 2 million followers are believing this shit? Are we serious right now?
Rips higher buy side and balance outside efficiency. Second stage reaccumulation, first stage accumulation, Low risk entry, Smart money reversal, original consolidation or the opposing buy side liquidity hits it, then it drops down. Okay? High to low.
I'm going to take the same chart and explain it to you.
70.5 reasonable. Did it go down to it? Yes. Did it go lower?
Fibonacci. What? What is it? 1929?
Yes. Where'd it go to? That inversion fair value gap that was framed on the basis of this market maker buy model. It's not pretty folks. It's like that cookie cutter that gets pressed in and your kid tugged on your arm as you're pulling it up. And then all of a sudden it's all stretched out and it doesn't look like that.
Sorry, I need to do this now. Let's take the exact same chart, okay? And let's draw a volume profile from the beginning of the impulse to the end of the impulse. Very basic stuff. Now I'm going to show you how I would read the same chart that ICT just showed you. Based on what I've learned from world trading champions, hedge fund managers and and kind of like real traders. Okay? But first of all, notice as I told you, how much volume was traded here? What did I tell you? The lowest amount of liquidity was traded here. And if by liquidity we mean the stop Orders or aggressive buy, liquidity above swing highs. That's how fucking insignificant that is. It's so insignificant that it's not creating new highs. It's so insignificant that is the lowest volume point of the entire distribution. It's so insignificant that you are telling me that they will move billions of dollars just to go up there and take that little fart? Come on. It just doesn't make any sense, right? But what we do know for sure is that in the futures of the Euro dollar, which we all agree is not the main market, the main market of the Euro dollar is spot market and swaps according to the bank of International Settlements report that they redact every single year. We know that in this market at least, which is a realistic representation of also the rest of the markets. 70% of the volume was traded in this area. Okay, between this line and, and this line, this is what you call a standard deviation, right? So we all know that in a normal distribution, this is a statistical analysis concept, the Gaussian bell, where 70% of the elements are traded inside of one standard deviation. It's actually 68.9 whatever. But if there's a few people in a population that are 150cm tall, and a very few people as well, 190cm tall or 5 foot versus 6 foot 5. Right? Most of the people will be in this range maybe within 165 centimeters with a median on 170. And the first standard deviation, the positive first standard deviation may be at 180. Okay, so most of the elements inside of a sample are going to be inside here. So anything that happens outside is considered statistically an anomaly because it's outside the standard deviation. So anything that happens outside is what we call a failed auction. Okay? You should just simply take a look at where the main auction was. And all of these are just failed auction. It's an attempt from sellers who were genuinely selling because these are billions of dollars. Not just a fake move. How can you say this is a fake move? This is banks, this is central banks, this is governments and hedge funds and pension funds and sovereign funds and university endowments and trading floors of, of huge magnitude selling the shit out of the euro dollar because they expected something different from the yield and the spread between the yield between the euro bonds and the dollar bonds. That's it. That's it. It's a very simple fundamental reason based on inflation data and unemployment data. It's basic, basic finance shit. And you say that doing all this to catch some stops that they're probably not Even there. Let's fix this volume profile and let's have it on this right? Just on the distribution so we don't see the volume of this part. Let's do it from here. Okay? Look at how much volume was traded in your beautiful wick, huh? Let's take it even better because now we have all of this trading. How much volume was traded here?
Huh?
How much volume was traded here compared to the rest of the distribution in significant amounts while most of the action happened here? And look at that. Will you look at that? ICT this and this and this and these and this and then this. They are all failed auctions. They're all anomalies of the statistical distribution of volume throughout months of trading. And then, then guess what happened. They mostly revert back to the mean. All of these instances of price moving up because the auction and the order flow behind is moving it up, not because of some algo. All of these attempts of moving outside are running back inside. After this break happens inside here, we're very likely to revisit the other side and probably either do this again and move to the other side or break out, create a new auction and then move higher. But all of this is happening because of price is in a situation of balance first and tries to do some price discovery, but is not ready yet simply because of sellers taking control of the auction once price are too premium not compared to any Fibonacci, but premium compared to the total distribution of volume to the total distribution of money. This is money. This is smart money. Okay, Michael, did you got this? I'm done with listening to this guy for today. That's enough of ICT Hope you enjoyed the format. Let me know in the comments. See ya.










