Is The Stock Market Crash Over?

What's going on, everyone? Welcome back to another video. So in this video, I'm gonna break down my existing position on Spy that I went over in one of the previous videos. And I'm also gonna break down the market. So the big question that we still have is, hey, are we in a bull market? Has the bear market ended? Is the market recovering? What is going on? And I'm gonna break that down in this video. So first and foremost, before we get started, about two weeks ago, I posted the video breaking down my position in the market. And my position in the market was I was playing the downside. You guys can see I still have an open position. I'm down about $135,000 on this position. I'll explain that position. I'll explain what went wrong. But I could have done better. Now, for a lot of people that were commenting on the last video saying, oh, man, this guy's gambling. This guy doesn't know what he's doing. He doesn't know how to trade, blah, blah, blah, I. I just want to bring up a few things. Number one, this is not a trade. This was a pure speculation play, which is what I mentioned. And also the expiration is in January of 2021. Not saying the position's right, not saying the position is wrong, but there's a difference of me actually trading, which is what I do, and there's a difference of me taking on a speculation play. This is purely a speculation play. I could be right, I could be wrong. Obviously, I had a reason to take on my trade in. It hasn't worked in my favor. Adding to that, just to kind of give you guys an update on my year to date performance, I'm up almost 800 grand. Despite being down 135 on an open position, and despite taking about a $350,000 loss on Spy, I'm still up for the year. So I didn't go and, you know, obviously dump all my money into a trade and didn't have risk management. Yes, even my existing position was excessive. I understand that. But I knew what I was walking into, and I knew that this was a pure speculation play. Now, my idea of this video is not for you to copy my trade or go and do exactly what I'm saying. I could be wrong. I could be right. But once again, I have an approach, I have an idea, and I have an analysis, and that's where I'm taking the trade based off, right? So now, just to kind of get that out the way, let's break down the market. And let's understand what is actually happening happening. Why is the market rallying? Are we in a bull market? Will we see new lows again? And what is the ultimate goal right now? Okay, so first and foremost, you guys can see when I took my spy position, I think market was somewhere around here or whatever the case was. But now looking at now market is obviously at a much higher price point. Now what has happened during this period? Now let's break that down now. Obviously, number one, the Feds have provided unlimited quantity of easing. They're printing ton of money, they're pumping up the market. They're saying they're going to do everything and anything they can to make sure we stay alive. And you guys can see that happening in the market. The market is holding. Number two, there's a short squeeze and FOMO going on. Short squeeze and fomo. What do I mean by that? Obviously, a lot of people that shorted the market, a lot of people that shorted the market when the market started rallying. These people are covering their position, which is creating a short squeeze. Obviously we saw a huge rally from the lows. As you guys can see from the lows till now, we're up about 31%, which is obviously going to cause a short squeeze, which is obviously going to cause a lot of people to exit their positions. Some stocks are up 50%, some stocks are up 100% from lows. So obviously there is some sort of short squeeze kicking in there. Besides the short squeeze, what else is happening is fomo. A lot of people that miss buying here or miss buying here or miss buying here are like, oh man, the market is at a low. I can't miss buying more. I can't miss buying more. So obviously there's a lot of cash being injected into the marketplace, which is driving the market up as well. Now beyond that, the biggest thing that in my opinion that I think is, is driving the market up is that the market is focused on the virus flattening. And plus they're looking at a drug that will basically cure the virus. Now this is basically a hurricane effect, right? And this is something obviously I missed at that time. But now I kind of see it a lot more clear now. What do I mean by a hurricane effect? Now what basically happens is this, right? So think about this, right? Let's walk through this so we understand what, why the market is not. Why the market isn't actually going down after any bad news comes out. That's because as you guys can see, we hit all time highs around beginning of March, end of February, at 339 on SPY, the market started dumping. Now the market started dumping because there was a hurricane. That hurricane was basically this virus. Now obviously this virus is leaving a lot of damage behind, but the market is not focused on that damage. The market is heavily focused on having this hurricane pass by. So basically the hurricane got very, very aggressive here. Very, very aggressive. And now what has been happening for the past few weeks is we are getting good news with, with, with the idea that we might be basically flattening out the virus. Viruses covered might be flattening out. We might have reached a peak basically indicating that the hurricane is about to pass. So the market is very optimistic that the hurricane is about to pass. We might find a cure for this virus, we might find a solution for the hurricane. And that is causing a pump. Obviously, beyond the feds providing stimulus, Feds printing a lot of money, there's a lot of other things that are kicking in that are driving the market up. And obviously last week we also got news that there may be some sort of medication that is helping the virus slow down. Right? So that's all the things the market is focusing on now. I think that if we do see a flattening of the virus, we might possibly see a little push up. And when or if we see a push up, I think the play might be there. Right? So for example, everyone is so focused on the hurricane passing now. Once the hurricane passes, right, once it ends, once it's gone, then the market's like, okay, this is gone now. What do we focus on now at that particular point, I think the market is actually gonna say, oh man, look at all the mess the virus has left, the 20 million plus people unemployed, a lot of small businesses closing down. There's so many things that are being affected with this virus or with this hurricane. And I think what's happening is we are not focusing on that. The market doesn't care about that. Market just cares about the virus coming out with good news or maybe the virus flattening or the virus kind of ending, whatever the case may be. And I think when or if that happens, let's say in the next month, 2 months, 3 months, market may possibly see a rally, market may possibly see a pump. And once that pump happens, I think that's where and when the market might say, cool, we see a pump. But now let's focus on all the damage that has been done. And there is obviously a lot and a lot of damage that is already being done. Now if we go and fast forward to another two months and we stay like this. The damage is just going to get deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper, right? So that's my kind of perspective on what's going on because obviously all the bad news that consistently hit the marketplace, market ignored it and market kind of focused more so on the idea that we may be possibly peaking now. Breaking the, breaking the chart down. From a technical analysis standpoint, we can see that obviously this area for spy293ish is huge. That's also where the 61.8% fib retracement level is kicking in. That's also where we have a critical major zone. Now when we start looking at the moving averages, right? And we start looking at that perspective, we can see that around this area, right around this whole zone of like 293, 300, there's a lot and a lot of supply there, right? Basically we can see a huge rejection there. So let's say worst, best case scenario we get, we get a cure or the virus starts flattening out and we see a rally into 300. Once that happens, I think once like the good news comes out, once we see a rally and this virus kind of gets pushed, push behind us, I think that's where we might possibly see a push down. Because good news with this virus can cause a quick rally on the upside. But looking at levels and looking at it from a technical standpoint of view, we obviously have a major, major level on Spy at 293. And we also have another level around the 300 point, which is the 200 day simple moving average, which obviously plays a huge, huge, huge role. And, and you guys can see that can possibly act as a rejection area as well. But putting technical analysis to the side, obviously the market is moving heavily on any set of news that's driven by the virus. So that's one thing that the market is gonna be focused on now. Another thing the market is gonna be heavily focused on is the following. A lot of big name earnings are happening this week, right? As you guys can see. Airlines are reporting, Netflix is reporting. There's a lot of big names that are reporting this week and next week, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft. A lot of big names are going to be reporting and what the market is really going to focus on is future guidance. They don't care about what happened in quarter one, they care about what they're going to do in Q2, Q3, Q4, and basically for the full year, that's what the market is going to be heavily focused on and then obviously when will the economy reopen? So let's just say hypothetically, economy is supposed to reopen in two weeks or three weeks, whatever comes out. That can also push the market up, creating some hype, creating some good news. And once all those good news or expectations are put to the side, I think that's where the next short play kicks in. I personally do not believe, and once again, I can be purely wrong. And this is just my opinion. I personally do not believe that we're going to see this huge push down and we're just going to see a recovery. I just can't buy that. I don't see that. I don't see how that's going to happen right now. If, let's say everything ends tomorrow, possibly. But if we go on another month, two months, I think we will most likely see lows again. And going back to my SPY position, that's open, my Expiration is for January 2021. Now, what am I looking to do if we do see a high of 300 and let's say the virus kind of gets controlled and let's say we find a vaccine, whatever the case may be, I think at that point, and let's say that's in two months, let's say that's in one month, I might look to open up a short position in SPY and other plays as well, which I'll make a video on. So that's kind of my approach. I'm still bearish on the overall market. Right. I don't. None of this kind of makes sense. Yes, the feds are pumping in a lot of money and holding the market up. And yes, I understand the economy and the stock market are two different things, 100%. But the economy is taking such a major hit that once again, I don't think the market is actually looking at that. I think the market is more so looking at the idea of the virus flattening or the virus kind of ending or us coming out with the cure. Right. But the mess is not being focused on. And going back to my position, I think my position was obviously way too early. I got in when VIX was very high. I paid a little bit, way more on my premiums than I should have. But once again, we make mistakes, made a bad trade. It's okay moving forward, looking to readjust that position in the next few weeks and kind of take it from there. Now down below, comment what your thoughts are. What do you think is gonna happen with the market in the next few weeks? What do you think the mark. What do you think is gonna happen with the market overall? Do you think we're gonna see new lows again? Are we Gonna retest the 218 on Spy? Are we going to go at that level again? Or will the market continue rally? Thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, please give it a like, please give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. I will see you guys in the next video. Thank you.