LIVE DAY TRADING - How I Apply the PbD Strategy on the DAX Future!

The perfect live session in which I will explain 4 things to you in great detail. First, how I use the PBD concept to pre-analyze markets and look for my trade locations accordingly. Second, I'll show you and guide you through this trading session by reporting what I see exactly where, how I plan my trades, and where my stop losses belong. The third thing I'll show you is how I look into the order books to locate exactly when the market continues. And when it might be very valuable and smart to place the stop-loss order exactly above a specific price range to protect your position. And fourth, I'll look at the footprint chart with you, where I can precisely define the traded orders and see, did the liquidity play out exactly as I need it for this trade? Therefore, I can promise you one thing: this session will open your eyes. That was really, really valuable, and it was a real joy for me.

So we have a wonderful situation here right now. Pre-open, nice P, and, um, we will definitely be able to open a position below 112 now because I see here how the market has made many, many sales. And at the moment when we, uh, play down there now, I assume that we will go into the price range of the Asian lows again and possibly even lower. Because the second variant that I see here right now, which interests me a lot, is to see how strong crude oil is again. And, um, the weakness is currently definitely being played out of, um, the resurgent Iran conflict. And these are always situations where I can say, here you could really see very well how the market simply, uh, found more and more sellers. Nothing more came upwards for the time being. That means the liquidity has decreased, and I think that this is a very good situation now. But let's also take an additional look at the profile from market profiling so that you also have an idea of what my thoughts are. And here you can see it quite brilliantly, for example, how the market was already at the very bottom here in the Asia session in the end. And wait a minute, I'll take a screenshot. So, and there you can just always read very well what's going on right now. Namely, we have the week here, yes, and in the week you could see we ran down very strongly with single prints, so aggressive selling pressure. We currently also have the VPOC down here, already tested it again yesterday and also made new lows. Of course, none of that suggests stability. For me, the following is interesting now, especially in the pre-session. This here is yesterday's cash profile, and you can already see here that was a very strong one because we opened at the very bottom, then had an open drive, had our balance up here, and now we are much, much lower. And look, and this is always something very interesting here and here. I'll do it again in a different color. Here and here, the market played very large turnovers, and that's a price range where I say, yes, that can be interesting. Let's see what comes next there. But for now, the market is definitely weakened for me and can definitely run down here again within the opening phase, since I have, as mentioned, seen the weakness. This is also an interesting picture once again, especially in the DAX future. Um, it just spiked up again briefly, but it didn't take out the entire structure where my stop loss is. It's above the structure right over here. And, um, yeah, that's unfortunately an ever, ever, ever recurring pattern in the DAX future where you can see that it likes to make a few quick jumps, especially in the pre-session. You can also see that here in the order book. There is absolutely very little liquidity available. But what I see above all is that crude oil remains very stable, and the trend since yesterday is also very, very steep. But not just steep, it also has 2 balance phases. That means the acceptance of the market participants is there for now. And that means to me they are currently accepting the higher prices. And if the higher prices are accepted there, I also assume that accordingly, uh, the index will now do exactly what we planned, and we can just ride that for now. We've already had the first wave here, and that means for the people who are active in the short-term area, as you can clearly see, we already have a risk-reward ratio of a good 1:2 on this idea. And, uh, safety first, you could take out a partial position here, for example, but I don't have one, so I'm staying in and just waiting to see what the market will give me or not. We'll see about that now. Yes, and for us, according to the corresponding concept of our PBD structure, I just had a nice P here again. It has simply been expanded, no more liquidity came in here, and now we are simply back below the balance.

Yeah.

And then there's simply the probability, if the market accepts the lower prices here, that it will also run lower. But how can you see that? And that's exactly what we can take a look at together. You can now look at how is the liquidity distribution. And I have to say, I always like to look at the footprint chart, and that gives me the following insight: that currently the liquidity is not at the bottom because the greatest liquidity was played here, and there was a short sell-off down here, but not much really happened there. Therefore, a partial exit would definitely not have been a bad thing for now. What remains crucial for me now is that I wouldn't give any more money back to the market, because the moment we trade back into the range, the probability is simply relatively high that we'll trade through it and take out the tops again. That's why, uh, safety first. This isn't a, um, let's move the stop loss to zero situation, but rather it's just the upper edge of the sideways phase where I'm just saying if we go back above that, it'll get uncomfortable. I don't want that. What I also see now, and this is another nice picture, is, um, crude oil has now run upwards, hasn't managed a breakout yet. And also from its phase where the market, um, is currently staying, you can see it nicely here. It had that short sideways phase. From there, the shot came, and the question now is, of course, what's coming in the next round? Will it keep pushing right away, or will it correct again and go back to this sideways phase first? That will then be reflected a bit in the reaction of the, uh, DAX, because right now, um, crude oil is being played because we have this gap down again due to the, um, phase of the corresponding Iran issue and the conflict. Here in the S&P as well, we can see how the market has now established its sideways phase up here. We can also see wonderfully here in the book that most of the liquidity was played here, and should it now go below 6750, then the market will go down here again. And as we already see, Europe is much weaker, which will of course lead to us getting an acceleration on the downside there. And don't forget, this is all pre-market. Um, it's always feasible to trade something like this in these pre-sessions, but of course the risk is greater that if someone has to position themselves briefly, you'll get spiked out. So right now it's just a matter of waiting. How will the market behave from here? Um, before the 9:00 open, it's certainly not a bad idea to see, uh, where the market stands. And if you're still 5 points away from the take profit, then you can of course take something for yourself first, but patience is a virtue. You just have to wait and see now. So now it's very nice to observe how unrest is entering the market. You can always see it wonderfully in the order books that people are really starting to trade properly right now. That means even before the opening of the cash session, there's plenty of action here. I can also see it here, especially with crude oil, that the market is currently increasing in terms of liquidity. Yes, and, uh, the speed in the order book is also increasing. That means something is certainly about to happen. And the S&P is also exactly at the price level where I said it would get interesting.

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Alright, back to it. Here you can look at the order speed, and currently absorption can still be observed in the lower price range. But the moment we break through here and liquidity continues to appear on the sell side, we'll certainly see a fast move. Otherwise, this would be the best point to say, oh, let's just wait and see for now. Yeah, you can see it too. There are already 62 points in the DAX future. That's not nothing. And if we look at the previous risk involved, which you could see clearly here, that was 23 ticks. That's a very nice risk-reward ratio of almost 3, of course. So, and now we just wait. So, and now we're coming to something interesting for the scalpers. Here you can see how someone is selling more and more positions right now. Yeah, the DAX is already leading the way. That means the weakness in the DAX is simply exorbitantly greater, and now the market speed has to stay in here. And as long as the market speed remains constant below 67.50, 67.75, the market will, uh, continue to fall. But if we suddenly find aggressive buyers below that, it's obviously bad. But as I said, it's all in the pre-session. The market is relatively thin still. You can read all of that very, very well there. So it's really nice for us to see down here, you can see more liquidity being played in the book on the S&P. That means the market participants down here apparently have the will to do business as well. And that's a good sign for now because— and you could just see it, it then shifts downwards due to the liquidity. And now you can see really well here how the market is fighting. And now the question is, of course, what happens? Yeah. And as long as such a price range is held, I can draw a line in there so we can remember it easily. The probability is there that the market will get weaker and weaker, and that's great for a trade like this in the pre-session. Of course, that also really went very well and was quite rewarding, and the rest of the day will show us. And I think what I've looked at here is very understandable for everyone. Also, from the PBD concept, what happened here is absolutely logical and understandable. And yes, by the way, something I always like to take a quick look at is the EUWAX sentiment. How does it look right now at the market opening? And I can see that most market participants on EUWAX, that is the derivatives segment at the Stuttgart Stock Exchange, are currently very positive. And, uh, well, often the opposite happens. It is also interesting, of course, that most people are currently assuming that the markets are, uh, too low and should be moving upwards. What does the market do? Always likes to do the opposite. Therefore, this is also an indication that it might go down another level for now. And here too, it is great to see the S&P. It just decided to sell off up here. Now there is currently no liquidity at all up to 7,560, and therefore we can wait and see. So, and now comes exactly the point I have been waiting for. The crude oil future is just going over the tops. That means some action is coming in right now. This is the moment for me where I say in the pre-session, I can now, if I want to, take my profits, um, or tighten my stop now, as I assume that, uh, the exhaustion move is coming now. I also see some orders still standing up here in terms of liquidity in crude oil, so there is a high probability for me that it will go higher again. In the DAX, some contracts were traded down here in the pre-session, and we now have almost 90 points on the clock, and that is of course great for us. So exactly, and this is the moment to look at here, here where the liquidity was, where we are now in the DAX basically trading into. That is exactly the point where I now expect the market to bring about a reaction. We never know in which direction, but a reaction will certainly come, and that is of course really great now, so that you can now also tighten your stop loss very aggressively and say, all right, we will definitely secure 74 ticks for ourselves, and well, the market will bring us everything else now. So now I can see that the market initially had no more liquidity below here. It is clear to me now. If we go back above 25, 27, the show is over. Therefore, tightening the stop once more, and then the whole thing is just done. And then that was a super, super pre-session. And no, it does not work every time, but especially when the markets are geopolitically tense, you often have really great opportunities there. So then finally, for everyone who would like to judge the market technically, so what happened? The market pushed up here, made a balance, showed the lack of liquidity up here, showed here that the main liquidity is here. With this re-entry into the range, I made the decision that there's now a high probability it'll go down. Below this, the consequence was simply quite clear and significant that the market would drop first. And since there was essentially nothing in the way in this price range, the market has now handled it all relatively quickly. I think you can be very satisfied with a trade like this. From a risk management perspective, it was also just very, very clear and doable. And everything else that follows now, the market will decide at the opening of trade. And that's why it's also very, very important, just as we've done here, to secure the trade specifically right above the price range where liquidity was last active, so that we no longer have any risk above that. And that's really all there was to it at the end of the day. So now pulling the stop loss above this balance here, and the trade is done. Maybe, uh, finally it's nice to see how the market is behaving just before the open. Yeah, there's naturally always more volatility in the market then. We've now also left this price block to the downside again, and there's some real action here now. The S&P is also exactly at the price level that we had pre-planned. That means everything is essentially done now, and, uh, the rest is either a gift or earned, however you want to take it. Yeah. Maybe it is also quite nice to see here that exactly what we have always hoped to see happen in the crude oil market has finally come to pass. It is truly a fascinating development to observe. It's established a base here again. That means it consolidated briefly there before pushing the highs. But now liquidity gathering is the order of the day up there, and then we'll have to see which direction the market takes as it continues, because especially geopolitical markets like these are always very, very risky. If we were to take out 2508 here now, That would be the next step where there's no more liquidity below, and then we'd get exactly to where I expect the market could go. So, and with that, everything is now done. As we can see, the market pushed down, hit the limit, and all the ideas worked out. Why is it turning so strongly right at the level we had predefined? Well, because this price range wasn't chosen for nothing, but was naturally predictable because we could assume that a reaction could occur there accordingly. Was the price range where major liquidity was last in play. If I'd seen that, I would have definitely bought right now, ideally. But the structure is just too weak for me since we're well below the previous day. And I'll say thank you very much. I really enjoyed showing this to you.