Losing Money Trading The War

Bastardo! What a shitty session this was. I traded again in the middle of the Middle Eastern war. American forces were killed. You should not take these trades. And this time it was rougher than usual. They tried to fuck me up again. It was a great scalping session if I had to. Even though the last few sessions were decently profitable, this one was incredibly boring and annoyingly unprofitable. Fuck this market. But that's the unfortunate reality of day trading. And yeah, it's cool to have profitable days, but market conditions aren't always in your favor. And in this video, you'll see how I managed it. Bastardo! Starting from the live session I was hosting for our DeepCharts community. Hello, hello, beautiful people. Welcome back to DeepCharts for this live session during the opening auction of the S&P 500. As always, yours truly, your host Andrea Cimi here with DeepDOM and the full DeepCharts suite, looking today to capitalize on a potential long for the day, probably going to look for some momentum trades soon just to warm up, you know, the situation and see if we can either reverse the gap because we have yesterday's gap here. So if some bearishness is planning to continue, that would be at least an ideal target. So there's an option to sell this first drive, which is, you know, a more aggressive type of play. But as you guys know, we like these type of setups as well. But for sure, we're going to take a look at the usual setups. We're going to take a look at everything that relates to the opening range breakout, everything that relates to gap fill ideas, and everything that we've already learned inside of the Order Flow Mastery course, which if you haven't yet seen, I strongly advise you do. If it's your first few steps inside of order flow, inside of DeepCharts, I strongly advise you as always to go on mydeepcharts.com in the learning section and go through the entire course that we've provided for free included in your subscription. that will basically lead you to understand these live sessions and make the most out of it. Let's see how markets are going to behave for today, but it's, it's, it's a pretty bullish start. The entire pre-session has been already pumping up trillions of dollars into the market, plus 1% in few hours, to say the least. We are at the top currently of the range we've been bouncing back and forth from of all the entire last few weeks. So we're trying to discover new prices, right? This is a phase of price discovery and potentially a breakout that could lead, if it holds, to aiming somewhere around these levels of the profile here. But let's see, let's see, it could all be a failed auction. As you guys know, that's one of the setups we use here at DeepCharts, or in general, not necessarily at DeepCharts, but me as a trader personally, and, you know, in general as a potential idea to look for longs and shorts, uh, where we have, you know, aggressive buyers being absorbed at the top wick and we sell aggressively into them to try and find fair value again. This is a very aggressive play to retrace into, uh, the opening gap, which as we've discussed, it's somewhere around like yesterday gap actually is somewhere around here. Yeah, so we could rebalance at least half of that. The rebalance of half of the gap, it's typically happening, I would say, a reasonable percentage of time. So yeah, first idea is to either do something like this, right? By the way, this is not financial advice. This is just short-term scalping ideas we're evaluating through order flow analysis. This is a type of reversal setup. You should not take these trades. We're just evaluating ideas for educational and entertainment purposes only. And you should not open this trade. Trading is risky and all of that good stuff that you know. So this is one idea from the PBD methodology that, that someone has mentioned now in the chat, as this is our D, this is an aggressive sell on a failed auction idea. So this break-in is what typically happens, but it has happened once, twice. So this could be the moment where we actually managed to break above, but we don't know yet. So this is one of those ideas. Let's now delete some of the drawings and wait for a setup to occur. And one of the setups we're going to look for is the opening range breakout. As you guys know, you raise all drawings. Yes, sir. And now we just patiently wait. But for example, yeah, this is another idea that we could consider now is the short-term breakout of the 5-minute opening range. And the 5-minute opening range is a more aggressive version of the 15-minute opening range breakout, where as soon as we see this type of aggressive candle closing with the body above, maybe with big trades as well. 4,300 contracts worth of volume is defined as a potential initiative auction. Some traders trade this breakout like this. I personally am not a huge fan of this setup, but we're gonna place it on the screen. I normally do not trade this, but a lot of traders like to see whenever there's a strong breakout, I wanna follow the momentum up. So if I'm a trend follower or a momentum trader, I wait for this type of confirmation, right? And during breakout, this is typically what you wanna see. You want to see an increase in volume, an increase in delta, an increase in imbalances, and that having a follow-through. So not just a rejection as we've just seen, but you want to see these buyers that have bought up here to actually keep buying all the way up to confirm this is potentially a continuation setup. And this has not occurred, unfortunately. So we'll see how things develop. And in the meantime, we can add on our 5-minute chart— sorry, the 5-minute chart over here. We can go on indicators and add our IVB, which is our Initial Volume Breakout model. That's simply an indicator that plots an opening range breakout on the first either 30 or 15 minutes of the session. I've seen the last session, the 30 minutes has been way more high performance in general, but typically I use the 15. How is your trading being, guys? Please join the, the Deep Trader Cup. You can join, by the way, this month competition by going at deepcharts.com, going over here and join the competition. You're going to click on join, and as soon as you're done, you can just give a check to the rules and you're going to receive some credentials that you can apply into your DeepCharts platform, and you can join the competition and win either a month or 3 months or 1 year of free Deepchart subscription so that you can test out your order flow understanding to see if you got it. And if you got it, you can, you can win some cool stuff. You can win some merch. We'll send you some Deepchart t-shirt, a cool prize. As we are not currently habilitated to do any sort of monetary prize as it requires a series of bureaucratic compliance moves that we are in the process of making, but it's not in our priority list now. We want to first deliver great software, great education. And then think about these details later. But for now, it's a cool opportunity to get more deep charts for free, uh, be competitive a little bit, and maybe apply the setups that you've learned in the course to see how they perform in a safe environment, which is completely simulated. And that is, you know, a cool initiative in my opinion to, to start using deep charts practically every single day. This, this is— if it breaks out, this is a very strong breakout. This is a breakout that has 4,700 contracts worth of volume in the breakout. And let's see if there's going to be a follow-through in this candle or they're going to reject immediately. But I can already tell from these 4,700 contracts worth of effort that this is going to be a strong auction. I don't need to guess it from a candlestick like this one, right? I don't know if there's a lot of volume in this candle, right? If I saw this candle and looked at it Without order flow, I would see that there's not a lot of volume, not a lot of participation. But on this one, I could anticipate that a breakout was coming because of the sheer amount of money that would put— was put in this move. Do you understand the difference? Now what I want to see, not only this breakout but continuation in the following candlesticks. I don't want to see a strong rejection now. I want to see a continuation after this candle. After that, I might consider also because we're probably going to close the 5-minute opening range, which is this one— sorry, 15-minute opening range. If we close the 5-minute candle breakout with maybe strong buyers in the body of the candle, which unfortunately I still don't see, it would be the final confirmation for our buying entry. But we want to see volume increasing during the breakout, and as of now, volume, as you can see from here, is decreasing. There's no big trade happening with the bubbles, and we're already reabsorbing the move, as I was hoping would not happen. Now, as of now, we're closing with a wick in the 5-minute. We want this candle to close with strength above the opening range in order to call it a trade. And typically, I like these imbalances that cause the breakout to hold and not be reabsorbed. I don't want a candle to close below this level over here. If price manages to be pushed up by a strong buyer aggression, then this might be a trade. But to be fully honest with you guys, if you haven't noticed it already, is opening range breakout ideas have been failing consistently. That's why it's been a period where I prefer radically reversal trades rather than continuations. We already see that when we drop back inside of the range, when we're out, volume is decreasing. When dropping back in, volume is increasing. So that's not a good sign for buyers yet. But the, the mechanical version of the strategy is you simply blindly buy as soon as there's a volume strong breakout on the 15-minute opening range, which is a little less advantageous than the 30-minute opening range, which is typically having a higher win rate. But let's see, let's see also if this sell initiative is going to have a follow-through or it's again, just a failed auction. But let's see, let's see. It's still early in the session. We might still see some things here and there. And after typically the first 30 minutes have passed, you know, we normally settle down and the auction can continue normally. But the IVB model typically places the stop below the point of control or below the VWAP and places the target on the protection level over here. So we're going to see how this performs today. Volume in the last few sessions have been steadily decreasing. And if you see numbers that are kind of different on your screen than on mine, it's probably because you haven't rolled the contract yet. So you can go on Options, Symbols Rollover. I've already rolled the ES e-mini contract, and you can decide to do so now or maximum in a couple of days as soon as all the volume has moved in the following contract, in the following expiration. You mentioned 4.7 being a good volume. What's your threshold to consider a large amount of volume? That's a great question. I would like to compare it to the previous candles. So for example, to the previous candle that broke out, we had here, we attempted a breakout over here, it was 3,000 contracts. When I see 4.5, I see an increase in participation. So I dynamically monitor participation specifically. So we had an attempt from sellers, they got absorbed here, you see 3,700 contracts. Let's take a look at liquidity now. Oh, we have a very strong level at $6,800 that we're likely going to be taking. And to be fair, one thing I've noticed in the last few sessions— oh, there you go again. It's one of those sessions again. These orders typically don't get filled and they are removed constantly and they typically anticipate breakdown. This is what I've seen in the last few sessions. So of course, it's qualitatively, it could be a good data point, but quantitatively, we do not have a wide enough sample. You know, we— you can't just base your long-term trading strategy on what happened yesterday. That's just recency bias, and we don't want to do that. But it's cool to observe. Okay, we got buyers starting to be slowly more present. Let's see what they're going to do about these sellers. But if this candle closes above here, we're likely going to be breaking out above the high again. But still not a lot of volume. We'll see how liquidity interacts now. And I'm very curious to see if this is going to discourage buyers from trying and attempting a breakout. Sorry guys, I've been— ¿Cómo se dice "enchucado" en inglés? I don't know what's the name in English, but I almost suffocated myself with— We are trying for sellers again. See, they presented themselves again exactly at the areas we were mentioning. Let's see how the breakdown is going to happen and how much volume they're going to put in the breakout. And by breakout, I mean below here, so short-term lows. For now, not much. It's already pretty flat auction. Don't expect a lot of volatility today as well, guys. It's probably one of those days again. Zero volatility in these days. There's just volatility like recently, guys. If you traded the London session, the directional bias, that would have been much more profitable than any New York session. And that's fucking embarrassing. Come on. Much better. Look at this. Much cleaner price action. Much more directional stuff. If you look at the previous New York session, look at this, completely range-bound. See the previous one? That was the only one which was directional. But then again, a lot of mess in the meantime. Previous session, look at fucking this. What the hell is this? Previous session, no real direction, a lot of consolidation. Previous session, huge drive up after huge drive down. So nothing really like sessions in the New York time are absolutely Embarrassing. And the only time these types of moves happen is because of some Trump tweet. So you cannot control when the move is gonna happen. You cannot trust normal auction dynamics. You can either trade range-bound or hope for the fucking best, and that's not a good strategy in my opinion. But see, as we've discussed, we've seen some more aggressive selling happening exactly at their area. They didn't quite get violated, and they started auctioning lower again. And we have some big bubbles also from the heatmap that we can start monitoring. On the lower end. This is a very vertical way down. Let's see if typically it gets reabsorbed very quickly, but we have some liquidity areas to go and grab now, $67.98 and $67.96 as the next possible targets for this, uh, fall. So yeah, this, this idea is for now valid. And as you can see, this is actually good because we have more volume now during the break back in. And I want to see a follow-through. I don't want this next candle to just reabsorb this. Please give us some more momentum, at least to the downside because this is a good trade. This is a good trade based on the PIDs, based on auction dynamics. Let's see how this next candle closes. But this would be the idea, right? We try to break out, can't break back in with a lot of volume. We can target these lows or something. And the next possible targets are, of course, as we discussed, the gap over here, which is very ambitious and typically gets filled to 50%. So 6785 could be a good target. But I want to see this candle out. Does it do— because if it rejects with absorbed sellers here, this is not such a good trade, to be honest. A lot of big sellers at the bottom of the candle. Such a mixed signal type of situation. It's all I've been getting over the last sessions, guys. It's not been easy, but 2,700 contracts worth of buying volume doesn't impress me. Let's see. Yeah, we got more aggressive sellers engaging for now, being absorbed. Just book sweeping for now. More absorption on the bottom. Oh my God, it's one of those sessions again, guys. Oh, it's one of those sessions again. I can already see it. How do you configure deep trades? I mean, in what condition do we need to change the contract filter? Whenever you see too many bubbles, when bubbles are filling up your charts and you cannot understand what the fuck is happening and they give you false signals all the time, just filter it out. But it's based on experience, in my opinion. Take your time to try it out with different configurations. I typically keep a filter of at least 150 or 180. Let's see, let's see if these sellers are going to be breaking. If they engage now and they break, then as I said, it's a now or never type of situation. Either one of these breakouts will likely hold if done with proper vol. Okay, we got some aggression to— oh, 2,300 contracts. We haven't yet closed the candlestick. Let's see. Wanna see a follow-through, 0.6 minutes, 0.2, oh, there you go. 3.3 thousand contracts, candle closing below. Let's see this one. And this trade is for now probably floating at 1 to, again, 1 to 4-ish. And we're not expecting price to rebalance because the auction is clearly bearish. It's clearly sellers in control. And I'd be really surprised if buyers took control out of nowhere, unless there's a news. So there's a battle here. There was a battle between buyers and sellers, and sellers won that battle for now. So we want to be on their side. And by the way, I'm of the bias or opinion that you can throw in the bin as I say it, because opinions aren't worth much in financial markets. Strategies are. But it's my opinion that we could see some more bearishness in the stock market overall because of the current— the instability of the current situation. I wouldn't at least expect this bullishness to be seriously bullish. I'd expect it to be some form of short-term order flow dynamics, portfolio rebalancing, and that kind of beautiful stuff. But I see no real fundamental reason to be extremely bullish on the stock market yet because there's a lot of uncertainty. Inflation is going to go up, uh, the Fed is going to have to hike rates again, and I want to see this priced in the stock market. I want to see stock market reacting bearish, as it typically happens during rate hikes. But you know, that's, that's a long-term view. It's not, it's not a short-term scalp idea. But if I match it with what is my overall bias for the day, if I can catch the fundamental move with a timing on order flow that creates a very high risk-to-reward ratio, I can see that sellers are are still in control because of these buyers. Let me explain. When you see in one single level 600 contracts of buying effort being completely reabsorbed, that's a seller offering a lot of ask and absorbing all the buying pressure. This stuff you cannot see with price action. We saw sellers dominating here because of lack of results from buying effort before the move even happened. This stuff you cannot see with price action alone. We're approaching the IVB low. I expect some squeeze to happen and we're right at the target of this first idea we've seen here, okay? It can either be a take profit here. So what I like to do in this situation is trail my stop, or if I have the balls to do it, put the target slightly below, a couple of ticks below the low, because typically there's some drift and some squeeze going on there. But at least put the trade to break even. Like at least I'd, this is what I would do, right? If I were into this trade. And as we discussed, this is not financial advice. It's just monitoring order flow and commenting and evaluating some ideas for didactical and educational purposes only. Okay, we have some more aggression, the 4,000 contracts worth of volume. You see how every breakout had more volume than the retracement breakout here, 3.7, 3.7, retracement 2, 2, 1, 1. And then we break below again, 4.4, 4.1, 5.2, 4, 4, breakout, strength. And on the way up again to 2.1, 1.7, and then again we break out, 3.7, 3, 3, 4, 4.6. This clearly shows who's in control of this auction. Let's see if they're going to break below here. I would expect them to, to be honest. Yeah, yep, there you go, there you go. 3,700 contract worth of volume. Let's see what happens now. Now, either one of two things are gonna happen. Either this momentum will continue because of the selling pressure that is below every single high and low, or there's gonna be a very strong absorption and we can take our target and reverse instead. See, we got a very fast move, a squeeze below the low, and now buyers are already rejecting, and it's the first time we've seen a candlestick, a buying candlestick with increasing volume on the upside. This is what we define as a strong low. We also have aggressive buyers joining the party. We see this big bubble over here. So what likely will happen is that we'll see some bullishness, some form of bullishness, if this candle manages to close back inside here and this candle rejects in this fashion. Let's see, 4,100 contracts on the buy side. This is an indication that we'll likely move higher from that. Who's in control based on the volume you see here, the volume buy candle. Who's in control? Well, clearly buyers. 4.6, 4.1. Oops, what did I click? Okay, 4.6, 4.1, 5.1, 5.2, 2.6, 2.1. Yeah, let's see this candle. This candle is attempting a break. So if this is— if these sellers are serious and they want to reject all of this and we want to keep auctioning below, they need to put way more effort than 2.8 thousand contracts, guys. I want to see more participation in the move, but they're already rebalancing a little bit. So if I were to enter here where they started reabsorbing, I would probably be at breakeven at this point, just in case, because these are short-term momentum setup, right? So it's, it's like you buy when this happens, when you see volume increasing, and you either have a small, super small stop loss and try a bunch of times, or put your trade at breakeven. And in case another move like this happened you're completely protected and don't lose a single dime. These are the two options that, for example, I like to use in the scalping ideas. Let's see how this candle behaves. We've broke below here and we finally see some decent aggression. Oh, you see, we have big buyers— sorry, big sellers here. For now they're getting absorbed, but we have 2,000 contracts worth of volume on the aggressive side. I want this to have a follow-up. I don't want this to if I want to, for example, join the sell party and exit this trade, I would like to see this candle to continue, not to reject, because a lot of times these lows can be a strong move to just absorb these sellers and then keep going higher. And for now, this is what seems to be happening. It would be another strong low on the exact same level. And by strong low, I mean high volume down, high volume up. But let's see, because for now this closed really well. We had 3,800 contracts. So we want to be monitoring the situation. This is a cool area and we want to see buyers intervening now and pushing back the auction up. This is already good because they've already nullified this and they're starting to be even more aggressive, aggressive buyers, big bubble on the top of the candle. Let's see if they're going to have a follow-through. If they break below here, then we're probably out at breakeven on the setup. Okay, we have some aggression again. Let's see if this is going to amount to a break above this high, which is what I would like to see. Nope, sellers taking control again. Still nothing. 2,300. Like, this run-up makes me feel like buyers are not taking it seriously. Not even sellers yet. This is not still seller winning, but seems like, you know, that there's a feeling, there's a feeling in the air. Let's see. But this could easily reabsorb and just stay here in the fucking balance for, for the entire session. You know, that's why we want a strong breakout above this consolidation because we agree that this is a fair price now, right? This is the fair price currently. This is the fair valuation. What if you paid for a year? Would we be able to get deep dom discounted? For sure, Andrew, for sure. Yeah, 3, sorry, 3,300 contracts in the sell candle that rejected. This is another strong low. So we got one strong low here, another strong low here, another strong low here, but still not a lot of aggression up here. The last thing we're missing is to see buyers above here being very aggressive, convincingly aggressive. Let's see if this is going to happen in the next candle. Now let's get a look to liquidity again and see what happened. But yeah, about that pattern, it has paid off again. Oh, and we have one here. So yeah, we're likely going to go up if my thesis is correct. When you see these huge orders not getting filled, we've always seen this. So let's see if this is happening also the other way around. As soon as this buyer presented itself in the bid, sellers were not ready to push back down anymore and were likely going to see the breakout finally happening in the next few candles. This stuff you cannot see even just from deep charts, you know, you just need DeepDOM for this. Oh, they already deleted it. That's a pity. But this is what happened here, here, and here. And they're dictating where market moves. Look at this. And we're breaking out. That's crazy. Let's see. Yep, there you go. We have the squeeze, buyers getting aggressive, a lot of imbalance. A lot of green in the candle. Isn't this amazing, guys? Put a 1 in the chat if you're enjoying this live session. We finally have apparently a winner. Let's see if the next— if the next candle is dropping back inside, which is an option, then we might still stay inside of this fucking range for another while. But I can see big buyers absorbed here. They're really trying their best. 300 contracts worth of volume in one single level. Let's see who's going to win this battle. Very aggressive buyers on the bottom of this. They keep pushing the price up. I want these to hold and maybe break above here again. I don't want this to reject immediately. Okay, that's still good. They tried, they got rejected. They tried again, they got rejected. Let's see. Okay, we got aggressive sellers, but 3,100 contracts here is good. If you took this, you're probably floating around even here at 1.22. And I personally, if I were into this trade, I would probably start trailing my stop loss somewhere below here to not give back any more money to the market and let the trade run until at least the other side of the range and then monitoring what happens here. I don't want to just take targets. I want to see what happens. I want to be more dynamic in the way I manage my take profit because I can still close manually if I see sellers being really aggressive or I see an exhaustion in buying activity. But what I like to see happening is exactly what happened below here with this low, the bottom of the range. Here we have the top of the range. So what if even above here we see some squeeze and that's where I exit? Not before, not on the supply zone, but right after, because we want to see a failed auction. And now what I can start to see is sellers getting even a little more aggressive. And I don't like this. I really don't like this. Okay, look at them. Look at them. They're very aggressive. Let's see if they're going to catch our either breakeven or stop loss, depending on how one might manage the position. 2,500 contracts. Let's see if the, the buyers will be able to reabsorb or this candle is going to continue, because if it's going to continue, we could see a little more bearishness and probably hitting even these lows over here. Let's see, they're starting to reject because this is the same area where they bought the dip multiple times, the strong low area. Let's see if they're going to present again because we broke back inside. Like, this was another failed auction for now. But let's see, still early. And in these sessions, guys, markets are really choppy. So don't get angry at yourself if you took some more stop losses, if you, you know, if it didn't go as you expected, if you, you know, don't blame yourself too much, but always be open to learn because these market conditions are not the normality. OK. You got buyers absorbed over here, sellers taking control. Yeah, sellers are in control. I'd— if I were in, I would probably flatten the trade and think about the next one. So let's put this flat, break even, maybe pay myself the spread. So probably somewhere around here and be out. And that's pretty much it for today, guys. We've seen 2 or 3 scalping setups. We've seen, um, an intraday setups on the opening range breakout that failed. And the last opening range breakout idea that you can evaluate is and monitor is when we break below this level with strength and volume and initiative and vengeance with a stop above the point of control. If this happens, we could aim for the gap fill. Let's see, buyers for now seems to reconfirm that they're willing to buy the dip. They did not catch quite the breakeven area. We didn't— we didn't got flattened out. But I see strength from sellers, weakness from buyers. Such a consolidative environment, such a boring auction, unfortunately. Not, not, not a lot of action, not a lot of breakouts, but it is what it is, guys. Markets are also pretty boring at times. Pretty fucking boring a lot of times. So yeah, we're going to patiently wait for markets to show ourself some— or to show us some opportunities and only take the ones that really are clear on an order flow level. And that's it for today, guys. I hope you guys will keep deepening your knowledge of order flow, using order flow as a key part of the strategy, and see the improvements in your trading with it, which is the most important part for me and for the mission we have with Fabio at DeepCharts and with the entirety of the DeepCharts team. As always, give us— feel free to give us feedback on how you would like to see improvements in the platform. We're always open to you know, fix some bugs or create new indicators, ideas, there's a Discord server that you can, you know, propose your ideas to. And let's always keep a positive and constructive environment in the Discord server so that we can all provide the best to this community. So thank you very much, everyone, guys, and I will see you next Wednesday. OK, we're done with the live session from DeepCharts Community. We're currently up $1,000 with some of the ideas we've seen in the live session. So the exact same ideas, I've executed them. Myself on this account. I'm going to share it now on the screen so we can see it. I'm currently trying to buy this market. I bought it here. I kind of exited here as soon as I saw the sellers and then maybe tried to join the party one last time if, if this was a break back in of this short-term peak. And then, and then I realized it was just all fake. And so I kept buying and we're now floating 1.3. $1,000 in profit. I would aim to close the session at a decent profit, ideally more than $5,000. Um, but now buyers are clearly on our side and we're on their side as well. So yeah, this trade that we've seen with the community was absolutely phenomenal, phenomenal trade. And not much more to add. I mean, you guys have seen this, so the bias is exactly the same. Here we got some liquidity to be taken here. Let's see if they're going to interact with it really. Okay, we'll just wait now so we can— if you want to cut, it's fine. I'm gonna manage the scalp as the last resource for reverting this range. And as I've seen a lot of absorption here at the tops and sellers taking control, uh, 2,400 contracts again, not a lot of interest in the breakout. Buyers are clearly not in control again. They broke above completely absorbed. So I've decided to join with a very tight risk the sell party. I've now been, uh, stopped on the trade, and I'm now gonna wait with a $1,000 profit cushion for today if they either sell on one side or buy on the other. But, uh, no, not yet. I prefer to see what happens at the tops and the bottom of the range now and avoid engaging in the middle. I'm okay to lose a trade opportunity, but I don't want to risk any more capital on, on, on super short-term idea. I prefer to wait for an actual breakout of the entire opening range, which could also mean something in the lines of this. It's the valley area. IVB high, IVB low. We're right at the point of control. And this is where I might look for shorts. This is where I might look for longs, for anything that relates to reversal ideas and for continuation. I want to see convincing breakouts. Of these areas. Draw tools from this. So we have the zones here. Okay, buyers seems to be still in control. So we're likely going to see them go here. I'm okay to be out of the party though. So we're going to wait for now. Okay, we seem to be having another strong auction from sellers. I'm curious to see if this is going to be the IVB breakout. So I'm going to test at least one contract on the breakout as a— or actually, let's do like this. Let's buy back real quick and let's sell on this. I'm starting to try the IVB on micros so I can hedge eventually. And I'm going to sell 10 micros and buy 2 minis. But I can already see I can buy the minis. Wait a second. This is another, another one of those. Yeah, it's another, another strong low. Same level, same rejection. Yeah, volume increasing, but not, not as much as I'd expect. So we're buying again. Big buyers joining the party. And then I will hedge on the short side with some micros. Micros. And we're going to buy. Oh, don't we have enough margin? Oh, I hope yes. Come on. Uh, sell. Oh yeah, nice. ES sold. It's basically the equivalent of one contract. So we're still— we're trading the opening range breakout with an idea to go this way. And this short-term, short-term idea can get stopped out. We don't give a shit because we're right on the verge of the value area low, as we discussed, and eventually join the party later if this breakout fails. Or let's say this break-in fails because we still could go below here with those 3 contracts. So let's reselect the ES and let's flatten for now and join the party if they break below the low and show more aggression, because now this idea has just failed and we could possibly be going below here. And in that case, I want to be in the party if they do this, if they do this other failed auction below here. And this short idea was very good. Unfortunately, we got stopped out very quickly, but This was a really good intuition that, that we didn't allow to pay off, to be honest. I took maybe too tight of a stop loss, got taken by 1 tick. I should have placed the stop loss above here. We would be vastly in profit, but whatever, it is what it is. Aye aye aye. Let's see if they're gonna get real volume on the buy side. Yeah, that's okay. I got a little more volume in the break-in. We didn't get a beautiful fill, but it is what it is. This is the idea, and I'm still open to take this loss and eventually retry the setup once we move below here. More aggression. That's okay. Now we just wait. So we have this one here and this other one over here with the IVB on a lower size with stop above here, aiming at the protection level below here. And let's see if that's the correct stop. Yeah, actually above the highs at the exact stop like this. Yeah, we're filled at 67.86. 7.5, so here, okay. Sellers very aggressively hitting the bid, 5,000 contracts worth of volume, that's a lot. Very tempted to join on the sell side if they keep auctioning lower. Otherwise, this is probably another absorption from sellers to fade. I'm also not monitoring news, to be honest. I should be. Okay, some aggression from buyers. Let's see, maybe this could be the opening range breakout that holds. We got 6,000 contracts worth of volume and now there's a follow-up. I'm sorry, I need to reverse. I need to reverse and join the party. On the right side of the markets. This could be the session where we finally break below. I can put the stop on the IVB here. We're floating on both. Sellers are in control. Sellers in control, really, as I said it, the sellers absorbed. Awesome. Thank you very much, markets, for being a very obnoxious son of a bitch. We're basically trading the breakout here. Ideally, this candle should close bearish. Ideally, you know. Otherwise, if this is another failed auction, please kill me now. One more strong low. Oh my God, what an annoying market, bro. Let's see, 2,000 contracts. All right, it's not much. See if it's gonna be enough to unload a load of crap on us. Aggressive buyers completely absorbed in this candle, bro. That's good, that's good. I don't want these to win, I want these to fail. And sellers taking control again and giving us the breakout we're all waiting for. We're already decently bearish. We failed to auction higher, we're auctioning stronger on the lower end, so sellers are in control today. I can see it through data. My only fear is we're going to break again below here and re-break back inside. I'm going to keep it open until we break and then put it at breakeven. And if we have a drift, I'll monetize it. Otherwise, I'll not. Come on, really? That's how you're going to block my profitable session? Another failure. Another failure on the opening range breakout again. Yeah, but not a lot of buying here. 2.2. Come on, sellers, you can still do it. We can still do it, sellers. Let's fucking go. Come on. That's very interesting. So I can load 10 more micros, but I cannot load one more mini. How? Make that make sense, Charles Schwab. Make that make sense. Yeah, not a lot of buyers, to be honest. I'm not impressed with this rejection. So we could probably still go lower. I'm going to leave some room for markets to breathe and see if we can catch the IVB today. This was good. Like, this was a good IVB at the beginning. We had every confirmation both up and down, and they both failed for now. Oh, we got sellers now kicking in. Let's see how the auction is. 1.6, but a lot of imbalance. Let's add because we cannot— and now I cannot. What the fuck? This is weird. Anyway, let's just keep this. Yes, wrong chart. Yeah, this is the one. Sell here, protected above these big buyers. Absorbed. Aiming for a breakout. Wow. I would never say I would aim for a breakout in these markets. It's okay. We can just wait now. Okay. So we seem to have broken out. We closed the 5-minute candle below the low. We're having more participation in these lows. Uh, the auction is bearish overall. So, you know, I'm not going to opt for a complete and utter reversal now. I'm going to keep my IVB idea in place without intervening anymore, knowing that this is pretty much the entry. We're floating $1,000-ish in profit, and we might as well reach the gap fill over here and/or the protection level. Or if you want to be even more ambitious for a fucking bearish day, where some days we can get up to 1.5%, we could aim for the same idea and at least go to the other side of the range, which is still around here. Most consolidative environments happen here. So protection level gap. And finally this. But if it's— if this is a directional session, I want to— I want to enjoy it for once. I want to sit back for once and enjoy fucking life. You know what I mean? Because we finally broke. We finally broke below. Oh, maybe today's a chill day. Maybe today we finally did it, bro. We finally caught the fucking breakout after what feels like decades of unlimited failed auctions. This is promising though. This is promising. It's a promising sell auction. I'll just probably put the trade to break even. Maybe, maybe. But I'm not gonna close this one. I'm not gonna close this one. I'm going to let it run. I'm going to risk having my trade stopped out. My instinct would tell me to buy now because I know this, I know this increasing volume and then volume on the way up, pop up and they're going to fucking delete this entire move. It could be an option, but not today. Today I'm in for the big ride, chicos, and maybe we'll test here. Let's see. I didn't even see the liquidity heat map and it looked pretty decent, but now liquidity is over. It's not a lot of liquidity here below. I, I wish there's a little more, but yeah, I think I'm going to not monitor short, super short-term order flow too much and let the market do, do what it has to do. And I'll see you guys when the trade is closed either way, or when I'll get impatient eventually. So I'll see you later. So I decided for once to not scalp this auction and trade reversals, but to be patient and let the trade run for once. And well, So for now we're floating in profit. Uh, this where my instinct told me to trade and close the trade— oh, look at these aggressive buyers— was exactly the point where we, uh, reabsorbed exactly. Then we moved on to the test of the area and broke back as soon as we absorbed buyers. And now we're absorbing sellers. So what I would normally do is try and trade it to the upside, and this would have been actually a very profitable session if I followed this and then this. And then let's see, let's see. For now, let's just wait. I'm just gonna let this trade run for today and not think about scalps and let the profit gradually form out throughout the day as we have the protection level as one of the most common places for price to reach out to. And we're going to trust the process on this one to see how it goes. We can probably at least put the trade at breakeven, I think. Just to avoid any news being released when we're in the trade. Yeah, makes sense. Okay, we put it at breakeven. It's gonna be another one. Another— every time they take the low, they're doing this in the last month. I'd say you can just buy below the bottoms and, and just take a trade like this, get out, 100% win rate. Haven't heard from Fabio today. That's weird. Okay, we'll just wait. Damn the time I choose not to scalp the shit out of the market again. Today was a great scalping session if I had to, but I let it run because I wanted to be wise for today. I'll be like, let markets do its thing, let the profits run and cut the losses. We'll fucking see, bro. We'll fucking see how that works because for now it ain't. Okay, okay, bye. Secret time. This is about to be qualified as probably the most boring trading session of all time. We just basically floated to profit this entire time, uh, and now we are apparently reversing all of this. I'm about to hit breakeven on this trade. It's slightly up, so here's, here's my breakeven. Uh, we've waited patiently the entire time, but it was a range-bound scalping session again that I could have traded more actively, but I'm really tired today and we're probably going to close our day at a loss. Or it's not, not at a loss, at a break-even. We're re-breaking back the previous range. I really didn't want to believe this, and I'm actually tempted, as, as this is not an auction I'm a huge fan of, to just give a little more room to the market. Even if I lose like $600, I'm okay, because in case this is all another failed auction and I'm out after waiting all this time? No, sir. Because this, again, as you can see, this is the fair value area and we're just outside of it and it could reverse any moment. And if it reverses and it drops back inside on the range like it's supposed to be doing now, inshallah, then— and see, there's no volume in this breakout. There's literally no volume in this breakout. And if there's more volume in the break back in, more likely to put it break even. Yeah. That's what I'm looking for. Yeah. Okay. That's a little more volume than we've seen in the last hours. So now it's time to put a breakeven. Yeah. At this point, there is no need for leaving markets room to breathe because we broke back inside. And what I expect now is a test maybe here. And if this is not the break back in and we're breaking out again, I'm out. I'm literally out. And I don't want to be inside of this market anymore. I've talked with all the best traders I know, including Fabio, including Enrico Stucchi, including Nico, including Patrick, including all of them, and they all told me the same thing. They've never seen such a market. They've, they've all severely underperformed. So closing this month at breakeven is a win. I consider it a win because all of the best traders I know are having a hard time as well adapting to these new market conditions because there's a lack of liquidity, we're rolling over, there's, you know, the war going on. So news are popping out at any corner randomly out of nowhere. So to be able to not lose a lot of money, close the month at breakeven, for me, it's an absolute win. And we're a little bit, probably a little bit better than breakeven. We're slightly in profit on the month. I'm gonna do the quick broker login for you guys. Let's go here and Charles Schwab, which is exactly this, you know, this account. Let's log in and let's see how the last month has been. It's not been an easy one, probably the hardest month ever. Yeah, as you can see from here, we started the month one month ago, February 17th. Today is March 17th at $219,000, so $19,000 profit. We reached $240,000 and we managed to give back all the money that we made in, let's say, before the war to the markets. We gave it all back. And now we're back a little bit higher, $5K in profit on the month, which is not much, but, um, $6,000 actually. It's not much, but it's better than losing, right? So let's see, they didn't take the break-even yet, so we're still in this trade, and now we're gonna wait once more. Look at these bastards, right? Look at these bastards. They tried to fuck me up again. Look at this. My breakeven was right there and they farted just a little bit close to my breakeven and then melted again. What a freaking bunch of— they look like they just fell out of a coconut tree. So now we can put a breakeven. Now if they break again, I'm out. I'm putting breakeven just because maybe there's a news event, but if they come back again disturbing my peace, I'm okay to move again. So I'm just gonna monitor and hopefully this is the last failed auction for today because we have, we've just tested the IVB low and we're finally dropping lower. I sincerely hope that thus we'd fall at least at 67.60s. Let's see more time lapse. Let's fucking go. We're almost there. We're about to get out. Oh, we're out. Oh my God, I cannot believe this session. I mean, look at this, bro. What the actual fuck was this? Nothing, nothing, nothing. Oh, I'm gonna wait and see what happens in the last part of the session because closing the session at $12.5 in a loss It's not what I'm planning. Let's see. See you later, maybe. Cut. Bastardo! Bastardo! I shit my pants, bro. Guys, I'm calling it a day. Fuck this market. I'm gonna post this session even if it's shit out of transparency purposes. What a shitty session this was. We'll still post it. Maybe something will happen later, maybe not. Who cares? I'm not sure I'm going to record it. So I ended up closing the session at an unenthusiastic -$425. Yup. So I decided to take a break till these markets wake the fuck up. And also, as you've probably seen from my previous videos, I've been using Schwab for options trading, which is great, but it isn't really that great to trade futures with. The filling was laggy. The margin requirements are crazy. So I'm looking to move to a different brokerage that has better margins, faster fillings, and that can allow me to trade directly on DeepCharts. If you have any idea of a good one, let me know in the comments. I'll see you in the next one.