Kardex Trader breaks down why most traders fail: they enter trades against the day's volume distribution. Only 30% of price moves break out of the fair-value area where most trading happens. Traders who ignore this structure get stopped out repeatedly and end up with win-rates far below 70-80%.
If this pattern is presented when the bell curve of the distribution of the day is like this, you are exactly jumping on a trend to go against the lower distribution of the volume. What this says statistically is that only 30% will go through. The rest will remain in what is called the fair value area. So you will just keep getting stopped out till the market really decides to take off. This is the reason a lot of traders that try to embark on a journey of using trend following strategies, they understand really soon the win rate is not what they were expecting like 70, 80%. When they try to target, for example, this level from here and they say, okay, I will just have 50%, 60% win rate one to three. This is not real because you are not reading what the market is saying. You are trying to predict the market.
