Trend traders often chase moves against low-volume sides of the market, but 70% of these trades stay trapped in the fair-value area instead of continuing. Most traders overestimate their win rates to 50-80% when actual probabilities are much lower, because they predict instead of reading what the market actually does.
If this pattern is presented when the bell curve of the distribution of the day is like this, you are exactly jumping on a trend to go against the lower distribution of the volume. What this says statistically is that only 30% will go through. The rest will remain in what it's called the fair value area. So you will just keep getting stopped out till the market really decides to take off. And this is the reason a lot of traders that try to embark on a journey of using trend following strategies they understand really soon the win rate is not what they were expecting, like 70-80%. When they try to target, for example, this level from here and they say, okay, I will just have 50-60% win rate, 1:3. This is not real because you are not reading what the market is saying. You are trying to predict the market.
