My Simplest Trading Strategy (80–90% Win Rate)

There is a trading strategy that has a hit rate of 80 to 90%.

Unfortunately, this model only works about once a day, and today I'm going to show you exactly when that is the case.

The problem is that well over 90% of all traders think that a setup always works. The truth is it only works in 30% of the market phases that prevail right there. Secondly, you can use the PPD concept right there, and that's the model with which, for example, Patrick Nell won the World Cup Championships of Trading twice. And thirdly, I can show you that the breakout scenario I'm talking about here is always applied when we are exactly where very few people believe a breakout will occur. One thing is definitely very important here, and you absolutely have to take it with you. You have to learn to read when the 70% are present in the market and when the 30% are present in the market. Where the market is exactly in these imbalance phases. And that is the game changer for extremely high hit rates and exactly the setup you need to achieve these gigantically high hit rates.

Let's dive in and look together at where it even makes sense to look for fast trades. And it's very important to me to give you a bit of an overview there. Look, this here is a weekly chart and this is a daily chart. What does that mean? In these two perspectives, you can immediately see how the market is currently structured, and that's market profiling. Here you can see the volume profile from the previous week, and now you can already see the current week, for example, is right in the middle of the previous week. What does that mean? It means the market is in equilibrium, and in such an equilibrium, the probability is initially relatively small that the market will make a fast, abrupt movement, at least if you think purely technically. So that's our first checkmark we can make, and we know, okay, there's most likely no imbalance here. Now let's look at the daily profiles, and here I have only displayed the cash session. And when I see these daily profiles here, I can already see how the market has basically spent the last few days in balance the whole time. That's the result of that, right? Here are the VPOCs, meaning the price levels where the market had the most volume. And I can also see that currently it's in a price range for now where I don't have to assume that such a movement will happen now. That is super, super important. And so what is it that I'm doing now? I'm identifying for myself at what point I even expect a market to become imbalanced, because again, imbalance is above or below such a balance phase. And therefore I first have to wait for the market to go above this or below this, and only then can I assume that I'll get a fast abrupt movement that also gives me a high hit rate. But we'll get to that in a moment. That means the first thing I'm doing now is narrowing this down and just waiting for information on where the market goes down and the balance which might have prevailed here for a long time, to project it downwards into another market phase, and then to establish an imbalanced market behavior for myself there as well. Let's take a look at that in another market. So here I have a wonderful example now, and, uh, this is, for example, the Nikkei Future. And just take a look at the following This profile here from the previous week was already supported by strong buyers. But now comes something very crucial. This week's market opening actually took place above the balance of this particular profile. In addition to that, we also tested what is commonly referred to as the so-called value area. That means, to put it simply, what exactly did the market do at the opening? Let's take a closer look at how the market behaved right at the start of the trading week, considering these important levels and areas. It ran down here and was then aggressively traded upwards. So that's the first thing that's important for us. The market is in an imbalance, as we can see up here. Secondly, the market tests the balance here, and an aggressive reaction occurs to the upside. So this gives us an indication that the market no longer wants to be in balance and is thus tending towards imbalance. Now let's go to the daily chart. Remember, these here are the daily profiles, and if you look at this here, you can already see that the VPOC is rising further and further up. This means that we also have a very strong upward trend in terms of the distribution of the balance of market participants. Let's remember once again, here the tendency was very even, there was nothing imbalanced there. Here, on the other hand, we have a very strongly rising trend in balance. This means we have the information that the market is trending upwards, and that's information that's important for us if we want to establish quick trades with the trend, meaning breakout trades. And now comes the next piece of information, and it's also very, very exciting. Now we're locating a price range from where we expect the market could accelerate strongly. And here, above the value area of the previous day, we immediately come to a picture that helps us.

Why?

Because we see the market opening a single print here, which means aggressive buyers have entered the market. And if we now leave this boundary of the previous day's balance, which we know is rising to the upside. And now comes the essence. We need a setup here that provides us with proof that the market is indeed strong. And for that, we can, for example, use the PBD concept quite wonderfully. And I'll show you that now. Now we'll do the following. We'll transfer this balance into the corresponding time frame. In this case, since we want a quick trade I've now located a 1-minute chart here, and let's look at— we remember how the market is striving up here, and there we can see, boom, and it gives us a wonderful P. And what does a P mean? A P means that there are aggressive buyers here who are shifting their balance upwards. Just as a reminder, this is very, very important. I want to see this setup here to gain an advantage and to know that there's real buying power and and momentum in it. And I can see that quite wonderfully with this PBD model if I consider this P as trend continuing or even as a breakout. Continuing the trend, this break-in happened right here. I have a breakout here with this higher closing price, and then I also see how the market continues to push higher. And exactly through this particular combination, I have the strong idea that the market will move quite fast. In fact, when these elements come together like this, it often means the market is likely to move quickly. Because I have thoroughly summarized all the important factors for myself, and I also have the proof through a breakout setup, I feel confident in my conclusion. What I am saying here is that my idea, which I have carefully constructed here, is also being traded by the relevant market participants exactly as I expect. That is, with fast and aggressive speed, a sense of balance, and then the break over exactly such a predefined level where I know the trend is stable. The market shows me at this price range a reaction, and this reaction is backed by a setup that can guarantee me high momentum. And then I have a big advantage and can say, yes, here I'm doing exactly what I've predefined for myself. And that gives me the opportunity to make a quick trade. Now you need to know the following: Predefining and localizing such trades takes a bit of time, and the biggest problem with that is waiting a very long time for that exact moment so you can set a signal for yourself. And when the signal comes, then you have to watch the market and see if it gives me exactly the proof I need to be able to define a fast move for myself. And do I also have the ability to press the button at that exact moment? And then you get these high success rates. It goes into imbalance, it provides me with proof that the market participants I need are right there, and then explosively makes my trade available. And that's exactly what I do in this combo. I think that was a really great edge for you guys, and I've already shared a lot of inside secrets here, and I hope it helps you. It's been a real pleasure sharing this with you.