STEAL This SIMPLE Trading Strategy from The WORLD's #2 Futures Trader - Marci Silfrain

We did a phenomenal episode, already over 300,000 views, and the comments have been demanding that we see a Chart Fanatics episode with this phenomenal guest.

This is the basis of every chart. To me, when I see charts, this is all I see over and over. And if you, if you focus on this, that concept of follow the trend, it becomes easier and you can actually kind of see it. Now, what usually happens is—

After achieving a high of 320% in the Futures World Trading Championships, the world's second best futures trader reveals her exact strategy.

It is going to blow your mind that this is so simple and looks so stupid, yet it can almost nail the bottom, like, exactly. And I use the Bollinger Bands to help me kind of realize how close we are to reality.

What timeframe would you say this is based on?

So you can do this on any timeframe, but I will say I like it better on the—

Marcy Silfrane goes step by step through her exact process that allows her to identify market tops and market bottoms.

This is how I judge if a trend is intact. If it keeps forming these little rizzies and it keeps going down and it keeps hitting these points downwards, this happens over and over and over, and I believe it is the basis for all of the charts.

What happens is not only does Marcy share her exact strategy that allowed her to achieve world-class results, she also gives two major predictions on this very episode using her strategy. This is an episode you cannot afford to miss.

I think this is what's going to take over as the next Berkshire Hathaway in our generation. And if you invested in Berkshire Hathaway in the beginning, you would have made like 5 million percent.

Now what I see when I look at this is, um, welcome everyone back to Chart Fanatics, the go-to channel for all of the very best strategy and concept breakdowns in the world with some of the greatest traders in the world as well. Talking of which, we did a phenomenal episode, only came out a couple weeks ago actually, already over 300,000 views, and the comments have been demanding that we see a Chart Fanatics episode with this phenomenal guest. Placed second last year in the World Championships of Futures Trading. You already know who it is, the one and only Marcy Silfrane.

Hello, I'm glad to be here.

It's an absolute pleasure. I know we've kind of dragged you back in the studio so in short notice, I guess.

Listen, I have tried to fight off everyone because everyone wants me to teach trading. And you actually initially asked me to come on ChartFinex and I turned you down and I was like, I can't do that. And then my messages online all day are like, teach trading, teach trading. I'm like, I can't. And on Words of Wisdom, what did I say? I'm not a good teacher. Here we are eating your words, teaching. So I'm just saying, you guys have been fair warned. You get what you get here.

But what you said though, before we started is today we're going to go through the concept you use to predict the market bottoms.

Yes.

And you've done that already, you know, through examples that might be on screen right now or shown before in the trailer, uh, of two occasions in particular where you did that too. One on the day and one like a day before.

Yes.

And we have chart examples later of predictions that you have for Bitcoin and another chart.

Yes.

In particular. But we're going to start here on the whiteboard. Where do you think is best to begin here?

Um, well, first I want to say I have sort of a philosophy on charts and markets, and that I think that all these different tools we use to buy and sell and enter trades, um, I think they're all telling us the same thing. Whether you're doing order flow for your entries, or you're doing Fibonacci retracements, or you're doing trend lines— like, I watched the video you have with Fabio, and then I watched the one with Tory Trades, and the way I look at it is they're doing the same thing, even though they're very different and one is a little bit more complicated, you could say. In my mind and the way I approach charts, we're all doing the same thing, which is we're trying to figure out the ratio of buyers and sellers at any given time. We just all do it a little bit differently. So this is very much sort of a, um, dumb it down, easy, simple way to ask yourself, like, which way is the trend going? When could it possibly bottom? And I find it's very useful to find the bottoms during market crashes. And this is what I use to predict bottoms and market crashes. And like I said, I was able to use it in 2025. I called it to the day on X, and in 2022 I had posted on Instagram. I had predicted it like 2 weeks prior and I was— I predicted it in QQQ. I was using QQQ to chart back then and I was off by a dollar and a day in QQQ. And it's very simple. It's something I feel like elementary school students could do. And I think it's a reminder that sometimes we overcomplicate things in life and in trading, especially in trading. Yeah.

Well, that's the keyword that we love to hear here. Simple.

Yeah.

I'm sure the audience feels the exact same way. And it's going to be super interesting, especially given the markets this month. We're recording this at the end of January, the last day of January. So hopefully we'll see what the coming months have in store for us. And I'm excited because I think especially with the chart section we do later, by the time this comes out, we might have actually seen where those charts have gone to as well.

Yeah. And I will say when I draw it, I'm going to be draw— drawing it sort of like in a downtrend. But you have to also remember the same— the inverse pattern works exactly the other way. Yeah. And I mean, I can try— I can— we can, we can try to do some uptrend ones. I think it's just the easier concept to get, um, in a downtrend. And remember, when you ask yourself, you know, why is this pattern so simple and so powerful, what it really is, is it's in, in my view, is it's It's based on Fibonacci and all the retracements, and it's just kind of seeing all the retracements at once without actually drawing them. Okay, that's— so that's where I would think in my head where it came from. But so, um, it is— these are my candles. Oh, did I just— is my lotion gonna mess that up?

No, no, don't worry.

Okay, we're gonna get some red candles. Oh, we're going down. We're going down big. Get a doji. Okay, let's do one more big one. Oh, they're getting killed here. I hope you were short. I hope you went short. Okay. Now we all see this over and over. Mm-hmm. And then look what happens. Have you ever seen a candle like that? Don't you feel like silver had one of these?

Yes, I was about to say, yeah, it might be silver. There'll be some traumatized people.

We're making it dramatic so I don't have to draw 20 on the way down. Okay. So what happens here? Let me, let me add a few over here too, just so we have this like, how are my candle skills?

No, they're great. Most people just draw lines, so the audience will appreciate the effort.

Okay, when let's pretend this candle is not here, okay? And all we have is the price data up until this point, okay? What you want to do is you want to come in and draw a trend line right, right here down. And what you will find— there's a name for this, okay? I have self-taught myself all of trading, so a lot of these like specific names and everything. I, I don't even know what they are. So truly, I don't know what you would call this, but you know, I was thinking to myself, there's a trader whose name we shall not say. Isn't he known for renaming patterns?

Oh yeah, yeah.

And think, so we're going to rename this, and I was thinking we're going to name it after your kids. So we're going to call this pattern a little Rizzy. Okay, so from now on, this is known as a little Rizzy. So whatever, they're going to leave me comments and say, hey, it's called this. I don't care. It's called little rizzies.

I'll back you up.

Okay, you'll back me up, right? So what this is right here is a little rizzy, okay? And the way that I look at this, and you will see this over and over in the charts, if you find the low on the candle that had the lowest low in this, um, pattern, and you measure from right here to the top of the trend line to— so you want to go directly up this same candle, right? Okay, to right here. And you measure the price distance. Let's say this is $20. What you will find is the next move down will be this distance. So like this would even continue further down. And this happens over and over and over. And I believe it is the basis for all of the charts. And what happens is when you're trying to identify a trend, you're going to see these keep forming. So I would view this as a new little RISI that formed. Okay, draw a trend line from here to here. Technically, I would have wanted this one to come a little bit lower. Let's just say it came down here. Okay.

Yeah.

And what you're going to do is This is, this is how I judge if a trend is intact. If it keeps forming these little rizzies and it keeps going down and it keeps hitting these points downwards, um, and what you will find is I like to add like Bollinger Bands to it too. So for people that don't, um, that aren't like familiar with Bollinger Bands I'm, I'm going to like, let's just, uh, okay, we're going to pretend these are our Bollinger Bands. For people that aren't familiar with Bollinger Bands, because I know, um, kind of the new traders these days don't use them, I, again, we're going to like dumb it down here. I like to call it reality. Okay, so the middle line is like reality to me. If it's trading near the middle line, the price is like in reality. If it's up here, it's out of— it's getting out of reality. If it trades above here, you're out of reality. So if you're out of reality, what happens? You have to come back down into it. So same thing here. If the price is trading near the bottom line, you're getting close to out of reality. When you come down here, like, you're just out, you're gone, you're out of reality. At some point, mean reversion, or coming back to reality, has to take place. So when I use these little rizzies I like when the first one happens towards the top of the Bollinger— of, of the, um, Bollinger Band, like up, up here, or above reality when it's going down.

Yeah, so for the flip side, it would just be at the bottom side, right?

So it will keep forming these, and, and you will find it. And when I show— when I pull up the charts and I show— I want to go through 1929, we're going to go through 2000, we're going to go through 2008, we're going to go through 2022, we're gonna go through 2020, we're gonna go through, um, 2025. It is going to blow your mind that this is so simple and looks so stupid, yet it can almost nail the bottom like exactly. It freaks— it freaks me out still, like how accurate it is, how accurate it is and easy to understand. But I mean, if you're looking at this, you can kind of tell this— this is kind of like a You can kind of see— are you familiar with retracements? Like, yeah, like you can kind of see it's really a Fibonacci retracement. So that's where the power in it is coming from. But they, they will just, um, continue on. And what I— as I was saying before, I really like when they're towards— if it's going downwards, I really like when it's towards the top of the Bollinger Band or the middle. And, and as the trend is fading Eventually it's going to start forming one towards the bottom that's not going to finish. But what usually happens is—

so as you were mentioning, you mark out the bottom of the—

that particular lowest.

Yeah, whatever candle has the lowest, and it's above there where you're trying to measure.

Yeah, you draw the trend line and you take the exact point in the trend line on that candle to here.

And so in this example, we said $20, let's say, right? So then what you would be expecting is a $20 move below this area, below the low, based on that.

Yes.

Perfect. For this example, I know it was already drawn on, but in this case, taking that same principle, would it be from this low to this high then?

No. Well, we're saying we're going to pretend this one came down lower.

Oh, just one more candle.

Yeah, we're going to pretend this is another little rizzy that just formed.

Oh, got you. So you get the lowest point.

Yeah, the lowest point.

Got you.

Now, sometimes the lowest point is the first candle.

Yeah.

Sometimes it's the last.

So this one might have gapped down and then—

Right. So you, you, we have to look at it and we'll go over some charts, but you, you would measure it and then you would measure this distance and that's how much it would go extension down. And so that's, and, and when it gets in these patterns, it keeps falling. That's how I like to gauge, okay, which way is the trend going? Now on the flip side, if you start getting closes above this trend line, yeah, little Rizzy broke. Yeah, not your friend anymore. Well, they're always our friends, but you know what I mean? Yeah, it broke. So it, it's not it's not always going to work, but that would be your cue for, hey, this, this is not working. And again, I do tend to notice the first 1 or 2 that form on like a downtrend work the best. The 4th one, the 5th one, the market's getting tired now and it's ready for a bounce.

Once we start to get more out of reality, right towards those edges, those ranges are going to get smaller and start to fade away.

Right. And I use the Bollinger Bands. To help me kind of realize how close we are to reality, how far out of reality we are.

What timeframe would you say this is based on?

So you can do this on any timeframe, but I will say I like it better on the longer timeframes. This is how I do think with trading, it's really important to establish a overall trend for the market. Like, you know, like the daily SPX is in an uptrend, so this is something that I would use for that. But there are times where I see these little rizzies on like a 5-minute chart, a 10-minute chart, a 30-minute chart, and I'll take it. And my, my cue is when, when we start dropping, right, there's— we never go straight down, there's always a bounce, right? We start dropping, I sit, I wait for the bounce. And when the bounce comes, I see if it's forming a trend line down, right? And if it does, then I'm like, hmm, we might be forming a little RIZZI. And so I might go short here.

Yeah.

And what I would be playing is, you know, this $20 below here.

Yeah.

And that would be my exit point for a profit, or my, um, stop would be maybe somewhere up here. Where that trend line was broken. If we got to close—

gotcha—

up here, I would—

to establish the trend line, do you wait for price to start to come down first and then you mark it out?

So, um, to establish the trend line, I wait for the initial drop and the bounce, and from there I just start trying to draw a trend line. And, um, it's not always going to be right. You could come early, right? You could have came here The— see, the thing is, you want to ask yourself this. This is what I would say: when the chart has its initial drop, it's up here out of reality in the Bollinger Band, and it has its initial drop, and you're waiting for the bounce.

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In actuality, hopefully you'll have a few candles up here that you could kind of get an idea where a trend line might B. And then when it starts to bounce, if, if you had this idea that you had these candles here and this was your trend line, you would say, hey, this one hasn't reached it yet.

Yeah.

Yes. No, not yesterday. On Thursday on X, I actually applied this on a 5-minute chart and I tweeted it on purpose so we could talk about it here too. We have time. And it was the same thing. It was a little rizzy. And I told everyone, you know, the market, it's watch out, it's going to turn here. And then it did start to turn, and then I, I set a price that I thought it was going to run to, and it was, it was all based on this, and it ended up doing it, and it hit the price. And it's just, it's so simple, but you really have to— and we'll do it when we pull out the charts— you really have to like look at the charts, and you have to kind of train yourself to see them over and over and realize they're constantly repeating. And I think we've all just learned, um, so many complicated ways to trading. So sometimes, sometimes you got to kind of like step back. And I think that's kind of what this is. So it might, it might be hard for some people, but I think for like new traders, they would love this. And again, it in for identifying entry points on crashes, it is like so accurate. It's crazy.

That's the beauty because obviously you can use it from a trading perspective, but then equally from just a long-term investing perspective, it can help two ways, whether you're looking to get good buys, right? Or just being able to hold your long-term portfolio without too much stress, knowing that, okay, on average, this is the sort of area and benchmark we should be looking at for the pullback to start to slow down or stop and turn around.

Yeah.

In terms of your Bollinger Bands, do you have any particular settings that you use for that?

I just use the two standard deviation.

Gotcha.

Yeah, I think most of them default to that.

I think so. Yeah.

Yeah. I don't extend them, but they are really helpful in kind of determining if the price is in reality or not.

Yeah, no, it makes sense. Like, you know how people use the RSI, for example?

Yeah.

Overbought, oversold. Obviously, the Bollinger Bands are similar in nature but are working off actual the price itself rather than, say, a sentiment gauge. It's working off, as you say, the range. So the 2 standard deviations, as you said, is just expanding that range out. So once you go beyond that, the upper limit, lower limit, then like you say, it's out of reality at that point. So like silver, for example, and gold would have been way out of reality when they started to turn. But then a lot of people, I think, were not arguing, but loads of people were trying to time the short. Because they knew it was getting out of reality. And other people would try to kind of put them down of like, you know, it's going, it's bullish, why are you fighting the trend and taking these losses? Because some of them were taking losses on the way up and they were getting a bit frustrated. But then a lot of people had like career-high trades.

Yeah.

Because they stuck it out and realized, look, we are our reality regardless. So this short is going to happen. And when it does, You know, once you're seeing like mass greed or mass fear, but mass greed in that case, that short when it does happen is going to be very aggressive. Oh yeah, look what happened. It was crazy aggressive. And you know, it's probably not going to be the end. I'm sure there'll be a lot more volatility when it comes to those pairs. But it's a great example because I'm sure, no doubt, a lot of them probably were using, whether it's the exact same tools, but as you said, the same sentiment. Of what we're trying to derive anyway, regardless of your strategy, is it's all the same principles we're trying to extract. Where are, as you said, the ratio of buyers or sellers?

Yeah.

And I can see perfectly clearly of why this would work and how you're deriving that information from what you've covered so far.

Okay, we're going to show One, like, on the way up. Don't mind my sound effects. This is a mixed candle bar. You know what I mean? Okay. Let's just say that, um, blah blah blah, guys, don't judge me on my bars. Okay, all right, this would be one— this would be a little rizzy. I would consider on going on an uptrend. So it went, um, it went down. I like brutalize these. Okay, whatever. What I would do here is measure the distance from here to here, and this would tell me, hey, this thing went down, then we got a little bounce, it pulled back a little bit, and the height it's going to go on the next move is from the high to the point, the, um, on the trend line. And that's where you're going to find the next move goes to.

Exactly. So we'll take it from here down.

Yes.

And then essentially that would be the same to here.

Yes.

Which then when you're looking at it, is it a case where you're saying, okay, from here this price movement makes sense to reach the upper sort of Bollinger Band in this case.

Yeah.

And that, okay, this is, this makes sense for me to be able to hold. Is it a case, let's say if that was larger and, you know, it's showing you that it'll probably get up here when it comes to say managing your trade, especially I imagine in a long perspective, or maybe a short one might make more sense. But would you then say, okay, once we're starting to reach the upper band, that's where I'll start to scale out? No, no.

If the little Rizzy, right, had the distance. Let's say the high was here and let's say the trend line was here, right?

Okay.

And let's say it brought us much the next move. I would play the whole move even if it brought me out of reality because they're that powerful that they usually tend to finish. And again, they're really just based on Fibonacci retracements. And I mean, you can look at these moves from like an order flow perspective. If someone pulled that up, they'd probably say that there would be like short orders, a bunch of people, you know, and they coming in here trying to go short, and, and they would want to come in and play this move, or people coming in here in order flow trying to buy upward. So it's all the same thing. I think it's— this is just a different way of looking at it that can be really easy for new traders. A lot of times the, um, some of the other versions, there's just— it can just be overwhelming. I I really understand how to read charts very well. People send me their charts all the time and sometimes I'm just like, what's on this? What are we doing buying when the green leprechaun crosses the blue frog? I don't get it. What is this? Let's draw stars on it. Sometimes it's just too much.

No, definitely. So here we have 3 key principles, really the price action, a trend line, and the Bollinger Band. And just off those 3 key principles, you're identifying the trend, you're identifying an entry point, and you're identifying a target.

Yeah. So, and also let's show this. If you get a— let me think of how to draw this. These are hard for me to draw. Okay. Let's say you got a candle. That came— saying candle draw, I don't know, I don't know. I haven't seen a bar in forever, so don't mind my bars. But let's say you, um, get a move that came like all the way down here. This is not a little rizzy to me, okay? It has to, um, form on like an uptrend trend line, the second it comes like down, all the way down, if it stopped right here, yeah, okay, I could say if I look at the chart, there would be a chance. Let's say it stopped, stopped right here, and maybe I could draw the trend line right here, it would, it could still continue on that high. But the second it comes like down below here, it, it's all best.

Yeah, so, so then from here, obviously you would class it as sort of a break of that trend potentially, right? And then the next, uh, for that pattern to form again, you would need, I guess, some green candles and then do the same according, right?

So, and then if something came like, like this, this would be a downward one to me, even though we're near the bottom. So let's, let's say this one was just to make it simple. Let's say this was the low. It would be right here to here.

Yeah.

And take it down.

So then it'd be from there to there. And then we'll be looking at the same move to the downside.

Yeah.

And then in terms of how do you then use this to try and identify the bottom in that case? Because then as, as you said, if you were going to get to the hour of reality, you'd still look to hold. To that point, right?

Um, so what I would say is like, if I was playing this little Rizzy right here, okay, um, my exit for a sell would be this move. If we, if we said like it was, I don't know, to here, that would be my exit for a sell. The distance from the trend line to the highest high candle and then take what— if that's $20, add it to the highest high, and that would, that would be my exit for, uh, profit. Now my exit here for a loss would be if this trend line breaks. I might do it like below the low here, or I might just do it like— my only hesitation with, uh, doing it like real close, like right here is a lot of times it will come test it and then just bounce. So I very much kind of like to wait for like an actual close. Like, so if the next candle like closed below this trend line, I would get out and say, okay, this is probably breaking here. If it's just, you know, drastically pulling a silver move like the other day, you know, get out. And kind of also apply, like always apply a max loss. To all of your trades, you know, whatever, however many ticks or percentage or tenths of a percentage points you want to risk. Like, you should always have like a max regardless in there too. Um, but it just— this is the basis of every chart to me. When I see charts, this is all I see over and over. And if you, if you focus on this, that concept of follow the trend. Yeah. It becomes easier and you can actually kind of see it. Now what usually happens is it doesn't just go up, down. Usually we'll kind of trade sideways. And, and, um, so like let's say the chart is going up. When it reaches kind of like a top out point, it usually kind of trades sideways. But what you will see in that when it's trading sideways is it's not forming any more little rizzies. It's just kind of going sideways. So that's kind of your thought process of, oh, this uptrend, it might be over now. The next little rizzy that forms might be down. I hope you don't mind that we named this after you.

That's okay. I'll take it. Yeah, that's fine. Continue my legacy somehow.

Okay. Yeah.

It's okay. So from here, what should we do? Should we go to the chart examples from here?

Yeah, let's go to the chart.

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Okay. This is the S&P. This is a monthly chart on— this is the 1929 crash. Okay. And what you see right here, to me, this is a little rizzy, right? This is 1929. So I'm going to draw a trend line. Like this. And if you measure from here, so let's say that's like 30. I'm going to pull out my calculator. Oh, okay.

See, I don't know TradingView. This is why we need you. But we can measure from here to here. Disclosure, I'm just learning TradingView. 1300 thing. Okay. Let me measure another one from where would it be?

So then take, so then take this distance to here. Yeah. Okay.

Do you get what I'm saying? 100%. Yeah. It's, uh, it's this tool instead we'll use.

Teamwork makes the dream work.

That's it.

So it wasn't. So take this candle where the low is. And then like the trend line. Yeah, above it.

My bad, I was getting ahead of myself. Let's use this here. Oh, do I not have that?

What I do to that?

And so we have So then we need to do the same down, which would be 116, 169, which is right there.

There we go. Okay. So this is 1929, a monthly chart, S&P right here. I would consider this a little rizzy. You form a trend line down, you measure the distance from the lowest low, which is right here, up to the trend line, which we brought down here, and you take that distance and you subtract it from the lowest low. And look what it gave you— it gave you the bottom of the crash. So what I would do is you could come in and just buy here, right? Um, what I usually find is if you do it, you're usually a little early. Because when there's a big crash, it takes time to bottom. So one thing you could do is that, or you could wait until— these are again our Bollinger Bands. Um, another strategy I like to do is you wait until you get a candle that closes above reality, and you could do an entry here, like on this candle. Yeah. Um, so I find either one of those are good entry points, but I mean, this is 1929 and it gave you The exact bottom, pretty much. I mean, not exact, but pretty close. So that's why I say it's really good for finding entries. Now, these are also other examples along the way of other ones forming, um, like right here, right here, right here, right here, right here. So when I say that they start giving you— they make it easy for you to see the trend is continuing. Now, I want to be clear, I'm not going to— even though in this crash you probably could just take this trend line all the way down, this, this is not how I look at it. I look at it very much as an individual pattern with the individual trend line. So this would be 1, On this particular little rizzy, the low was on the first candle. I would measure here to here and you will find it brings you down here. Now I have another one. I would draw a trend line from like here to here and my next move down is going to be the same thing. Measure the distance from here to the low and it's going to bring you down and it continues. I would even consider— I would consider this one. I could consider this one. In this instance, we had a lot. And let's say you tried to do it here and it failed. And for me, the trend is broke— broken there. Now, a lot of people would just do a one trend line all the way down, which you can do, but this gives you like the exact moves down in a way to measure it when you kind of break them up.

But in terms of the only question I can think the audience having is in regards to— and it's slightly different because we're on a monthly chart, so maybe we can sort of, uh, clear this as we go to more recent charts. Okay. But in regards to the trend line, so as of right now, you know, it's much— though the thing that they'll probably be thinking is, uh, it's easier to do this charts that have already sort of presented all the candles to be able to do it, right? So in this case, this one here, let's say drawing the trendline is more simple because we can see where the next higher low is or the next candle that then sends us lower. But then in real time, how would we be able to—

so I would say, I would say like this next trendline, right? I wouldn't have drawn it and until like you have this candle. Okay. And you're right, I may not have seen it at that point. I may have not realized it until 3 candles down and maybe I missed that one. Okay. So there it is, something you have to learn and practice in real time. And when we go over the current Bitcoin chart and my favorite chart that I think is like a really good buying opportunity for the future, those are not completed, right? Those are real-time charts. So I'll kind of show you when I don't have the data, like what I look for. Gotcha. And how I come up with those conclusions. So let's go to, um, the dot-com crash. Let me go, let's look at a week. Oops, let's do a weekly. Oh, I kind of had these drawn. Okay, this is 2000, um, the NASDAQ. This is a weekly chart. This to me is one big— in my mind, this is one big little rizzy. I would draw the trend line like this, and the distance— or I would measure the distance from here to the trend line, take that, and it will bring you, you know, it'll be around down here. And you can see in the, um, in the dot-com crash, this would have been an early buy. But it's still— if you're trying to do a long— if you're looking— if it's a market crash and you're looking for a long-term entry point, it's a good it's a good basis for where you should enter. And the other thing too is like you really want to focus if you're, if you're trying to gauge if there is a crash, you really want to gauge the fundamentals and ask yourself, you know, is GDP declining? Is unemployment rising? You want to look at those types of things also.

But no, you're right. So especially on this sort of bigger picture, way of trading, the fundamental side of things are going to be really helpful and necessary to a degree. No doubt.

And these are, again, I'm just going to draw these just so you get in the habit of seeing it because it repeat in my brain. They repeat over and over. I would consider this one.

Is this why you were saying on the Words of Wisdom episode, like you cannot match replace the time on the chart.

Yeah, because the more you do this, the more you'll, the more that you'll start to see them. Like you could consider this one and you could say, okay, this is still telling me it could fall. It did kind of bounce above, but this is how I gauge the direction of the price movement.

Are there other elements when it comes to, so say for example here we're on the weekly timeframe, we've identified the trend line, we've identified where we're positioned, our direction, but then when it comes to sort of trying to enter, then manage the trade, let's take this as an example here. Would you then be basing it— this is weekly— would you go like daily, look at what's going on there to help then back up your thesis and find that entry point?

Yeah. And you'll see more and more of these repeating in every timeframe, in every chart. So you can definitely zoom in, but I do find that again, so like up here, this is towards the top of the Bollinger Band. They still continued down the— like this one right here is towards the lower band down here. But it did kind of consolidate, go sideways, and then it made another move down. If you go to 08, let's see, past it. Okay, wait, how do we do this?

Would you say that when it comes to the news side of things, especially if we're at highs, do you sometimes have to kind of think counter to what the news is saying, for example? So what example can I give? Like the dollar, I guess this last week, 2 weeks, everyone's talking about how the dollar's died and it's just dying off and dying off, dying off. Does that— and it has died off. But does that then, when it comes to fundamentals and looking from this perspective, because it's at record lows already, is it almost to a degree sometimes you've got to think the opposite? Okay, we've probably priced in this negativity at this point. This could be where we start to turn.

I have a great tool I like to use for that. And I say when mainstream media's reporting it, like when it is headline news on CNN, it's priced in. Mm-hmm. Whatever it is, it's priced in. Now if it's on CNBC or like Bloomberg or MarketWatch, it might not be priced in yet. But like once it's the mainstream, if we wake up Monday and it is headline news about a silver crash on CNN, MSNBC, like Fox News, like the regular news stations, not like the business, the finance ones.

Yeah.

When it hits those, like headline news, it's over. That, like, that's literally what I look for. I look for that, or I look for my friends calling me who don't normally trade who tell me about it. So if I get calls Monday about silver from people who don't trade, I'll be like, hmm, it's probably over. But I mean, those are the things that, that I look for. And we do have to remember the market is always pricing everything in advance. Yeah, it's way ahead. As much as we like to think that we can get in before it, we can't. But when it hits the mainstream news, that's always my cue. Yeah, like it's over.

I've had a lot of people— I remember, I know a lot of people who have been trying to ask me about silver more recently, you know, people who don't trade. So that was always my indication that we were going to see something as well.

This is NDX, so the NASDAQ. This is the 2008 crash. And if you measure the distance from here to here. Yeah.

So we measure from here to here. So that gives us 41.

And so that could be an entry point for a long position. Um, again, it's not exact. This is an example down here where, um, it started trading sideways. Yeah. And it, and it, and you can tell the trend started changing. Um, so if you were coming in in 08 and you're trying to identify the bottom, you got an inheritance, you came up on some money, and you want to enter the market, right? This, this would give you a good position to enter. You— and you could do it here, or you could wait until you get a candle breaking, um, the middle Bollinger Band. Um, and you can see it went on from here. And again, now we're in an uptrend to me. I'm, I'm just going to go through and draw them so you can see how in my brain I look at these and I try to pick the direction of the trend. So this, to me, this would be one. The high would actually probably be on this candle, and I would measure that distance. It did go on above that, right? So from here to here, I would consider this one. And if you measure the high to here, you can see it continued up.

And then from there we continue. Let me sort this for you. That one. There we go.

This would be a little rizzy to me. This would be one. This one I probably might not have because this low came down pretty far. But it just keeps— I break it down into this. Repeating pattern over and over and over. And when I get a moment when it starts to trade sideways like this, I kind of go, hmm, maybe it's breaking. Um, let's go into— let's do 2018. In 2018, we had— there was a big drop in 2018. And it's kind of one little rizzy that kind of gave you the, um, is this how you're doing it? Yeah. Okay. I'm learning TradingView, guys.

You usually use Thinkorswim, you said?

Yeah, I use Thinkorswim. So I feel like I'm, um, I feel like I'm kind of writing with my left hand and I'm right-handed, but we get the point. And it is like a perfect—

pretty much just under that. Yeah, it's close.

Same thing, um, going up, they continue to form. Now let's go into 2020, the COVID crash. Where are we? 2022. To me, this is, this is your— if, if, if you are, um, an investor in the market and, and you see one of these patterns starting to form and you know there's some fundamental going on, like, you know, COVID we all knew it was spreading. And you see this huge drop followed by a bounce. You're seeing— maybe you could draw the trend line and it's starting to fail. That, that's kind of your time that maybe you are wanting to realize it's, it's probably going to continue down. And you can see this continued to drop down. Um, I would consider this another one from here to here. I would consider this one from here to here. I would consider this one. I would consider this one. And again, it stops. And now you get them in reverse. Now you're getting them from here to here. So it's going to move the distance from here to this trend line. And that's going to be your next move up. And again, that's how I'm gauging the trend. If we go into Let's go to do April.

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April 2025. If you make this one large one and you measure the distance, it came pretty close to giving you the bottom down here too. Maybe you're going to enter right around here, and then you got a huge one form right here.

So when you get down there, one, you're taking your profits from any shorts, but then when you get to that level based on, you see the overall correction, probably some fundamentals as well, as well as them being out of reality on that lower Bollinger Band, do you start looking at buying and trying to time like the absolute bottom, or you want to wait for confirmation?

For you. So if you look at like in, in this instance, um, this little rizzy brought us down to right about here. Um, we also had a fib retracement here for the, like, the AI bull market that started in 2022, um, somewhere around here where this little rizzy bottomed. Was also a 50% Fibonacci retracement from, from the whole AI bull run. So when that happened, I was like, oh, it's over, it's going to reverse. And that's why I had posted an X. I was like, the bottom's in. That was it. Because it was just too much support. It was too powerful. We dropped too fast, too hard, and it just seemed like it was over. You could come in and say, hey, This could have been one, right? And, and, and, and this would be a time where if you consider this one, it, it did not work, it was invalidated. So what, what you would want to watch for is it started— is it starting to form one in the inverse direction to do an uptrend higher? And again, I'm going to show you two charts in real time that are forming them and which direction I think they're going to go. But it's just, it's over and over the same concept. And it's how I gauge the trend over and over. Like you could say this is one.

And then this is why it really comes down to people putting in the chart time and the work, because based on your perception, you might go shorter one. Based on a couple candles coming down, or you might feel, you know, better doing sort of the longer period, the whole sort of cycle of that. And that's where, you know, putting in that chart time over time, you'll develop the eye that you see for identifying the highs and lows based on what you see. And that's going to be so important, right? Because regardless, unless you see it for yourself and you feel that confidence to a degree in terms of like what you're seeing, That's the only way you're going to be able to execute properly.

Yeah. Yes. Nothing. There's no YouTube video. There's nothing that anyone could teach you that will beat just the time you invest staring at the charts and just kind of like learning how they breathe. Okay. This is Bitcoin. This is a current chart now. What I would say is I would either do it like this or let's say like that. Okay. I would say this is one that's forming. So if we measure the distance, so that's 6,161. No, $30,000, right?

In dollars. Yeah. Okay. $30,000.

So the low here is, um, like right around here. If this continues to form— I mean, Bitcoin's coming down. Let's see, we're saying 111, let's say, to— let's just say 80. It's gonna— so if this continues to form, it's gonna drop it. It's gonna drop to The 50s.

So that's the direct bottom and that is the high, 30,300. And then we do it again. It's around the 50,000.

So there you go. That is one in real time that has not completed in If it continues that pattern, that's where it's going, $50,000, which is a long way off.

It is a long way off. It'll scare a lot of people, no doubt, especially a lot of the crypto scene. So in this case, then, you know, you mark it out. And let's say if you wanted to execute on this, would you then be going lower timeframes in order to execute and enter?

No, if I wanted to play this actual move, I would just short it until here. Now mind you, shorting that many points on a long-term chart is, is not, um, in my trading strategy, but we'll go into some like shorter time frames and show you like times that you, you could, you could do it. So let's— so if we're looking at Bitcoin I'm bearish. I see a little rizzy. It looks like it's gonna come under $60,000 to me. That's what I see. And let me go to a, um, monthly chart. Yeah, look at it. It's gonna bring you— yeah, it doesn't look good. I'm sorry. Don't believe them.

I don't mind. I'm not—

I'm not in Bitcoin. And then let's go to— ooh, that's not right. What did I do on Thursday? So this is the actual play I posted in live time on X that you could go back and reference. When it got like down here, I had said that I thought it was going to reverse. And part of the reason I saw that is I kind of saw this, um, I saw this one kind of form here, or maybe I could have drawn it like that. And, um, it was way— the, the, the market, the NASDAQ was down over 2% at that point. And, and you have to kind of say to yourself, this is probably the low. The market doesn't often statistically fall 3%. Yeah. So we're probably going to get a bounce here. And we had like this, this little rizzy completed the dis— we, we still dropped the distance from here to here. We came down here, then we had a little sideways trade, and, um, we start— we formed one going up. And so I, I use these, and I had gauged that at some point down here I kind of saw this forming, and I was saying, hey, you know what, the next stop's going to be around 25,900. And we ended up hitting 25,900. And that's how I was able to make that call. Again, I saw this last little RSI form, I saw how far it dropped, I knew that the market was down over 2%, and it doesn't statistically happen that much. We're at the lower end of the Bollinger Band. I see the trend start to change, and I was able to gauge that it was probably going to run to about 25,900 on a bounce. And the other thing I did was I took— I kind of took this, uh, the bottom of this little rizzy, and I, and I was— and I did— this is a separate something. I, I drew this before I had any of these candles. Yeah, I kind of drew out a trend line from these and I asked myself, okay, if we're going to bounce, it made sense to me that it would probably try to come up and hit this, which was right around 25,900, which was what I was thinking at the time. But you can see how the trend changes. Do you have any questions?

No, I can understand it. I can see it as well. So if we were to measure it from, uh, it would be what, this low here to there, and that would give you 147. And then from down here to 147 would be roughly just there. And there you have— oh, I used the wrong one, which is fine. But you saw, yeah, fades out. Or low. And that's why it's so important to always have context. I think a lot of people assume, oh, okay, here are the rules and that's it. But in reality, it's like aligning your rules because you could have your rules present itself, but then you're in a poor position in the market. You're just ticking boxes.

Yeah, right. And so I would, I would say to traders, because I know everyone has their own trading strategy, but we all need to identify trends when they're in place, when they're changing, when they're turning. It's, it's just something they can add to what they're already doing to kind of see if it aligns to the trade they're going to play. You know, if they're coming in here and you're wanting to go short, um, if you're coming in right here and you're wanting to go short but this little rizzy already bottomed out, you're at— you're getting close to being out of reality on the Bollinger Band. This is not a good time to go short. Yeah. This is a good time to go in for a bounce to go long. And I mean, you can see how the price usually trades within the bands. But again, for Bitcoin, I just— I don't see— I see it going down towards Do we do this right? Is this—

that's the market cap, but it's— there we go.

Is that— no, I'm clicking on the wrong one. Here we go. I see it going down under $60,000 to near, near, near $50,000. I— and it looks to me as in that that's one that would complete. So like I would not be going long Bitcoin right now.

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Okay, now for my— so this is, this is my, my short play in real time. Okay, now for my long play in real time. It's HHH, Howard Hughes. Interesting. This is my— is this a airline? No, it's a holding company. So we all know Warren Buffett stepping away, has stepped away from Berkshire. Howard Hughes Holdings, in my belief, and from what they're trying to do, they're trying to step in to be the next Berkshire. Now they were, they were initially like a real estate company, but they've got a $1 billion investment and they have been restructured. Okay. And they're now turning into like a holding company, holdings company. And this is all stuff that's currently happening like the past year. A big part of this, it's combining the chart with the fundamentals, right? So we have Howard Hughes Holding being restructured and it's not just going to primarily be a real estate company anymore. They're going to actually invest and become the primary stakeholder in other businesses. And they're going to have an insurance-driven model also, which is what Warren Buffett did through Berkshire. So they're trying to literally copy his steps. Yeah. And I think this is what's going to take over as the next Berkshire Hathaway in our generation. And if you invested in Berkshire Hathaway in the beginning, you would've made like 5 million percent. Obviously that was like the 1960s or something. But I think the chart combined with the, shift in the company and the fundamentals, it makes sense to me. Now what I see when I look at this is I see one that formed right here that has not finished yet. This is sort of a lower one. So if you measure the distance from here to here— okay, Riz, come on, add the next one. I'll figure it out one day. That's how to use TradingView.

So again, 66 would put us up here somewhere.

So it's almost a, or it is probably a double if this finishes. Let's see.

It'll be just under that, but yeah.

So it's currently around 81. Yeah, if this, if this finishes, it's going up towards $175, and I see it finishing. And when you combine this little rizzy and you see how far it's going to go for this one to finish— this is a monthly chart on Howard Hughes Holdings— you combine it with the fundamentals, you see this. You also like realize like a lot of these people that are going to be taking— I don't want to say they're going to take their money out of Berkshire, but they're going to be looking for the next one. They may find their eyes on this and they may start investing. And then they also have that $1 billion that they're going out there to invest in other companies. They'll basically be like a, they'll use like their cash flow from the real estate investments and the new money that got invested. They'll use that to buy these other businesses. They actually become like primary stakeholders. It's not like a hedge fund when they come in and buy and they take like a minority stake of companies. They're, they're going to run these companies. And that's what Warren Buffett did, um, Dairy Queen. So it, it all makes sense because the whole business model for the company is changing and the structure and the new investments. And then Warren Buffett stepping away, Howard Hughes Holding possibly coming in to take over its place. It makes sense why you could get this move up so high that it's basically more than a double from here. And I think it could happen fast. I really do. So this is my favorite bullish chart right now that I can find. And again, I'm showing you one in like real time, how I would view it and how I would price it out.

So in terms of them, this one in particular might be something which you might invest long term in. Yes. If it was a trade like the, the 5-minute chart we were looking at on a NASDAQ, how would you go about sort of entering that trade or how would you go about looking at that?

Let me pull up, let's see how this one looks on a 5-minute. So right here is they're contradicting, right? You actually have two in play right here. You have this one, this is the hourly chart, which would push you, you know, up here. Oops. Or you could also argue you have this one that could bring you down here. So what I would do, like in this scenario, if something like this comes up, I would wait for one of these to break and I might enter. So if, if this starts trading sideways right here and goes up, that, that would tell me this little rizzly is probably the one in play. If this continues to go down and break this and come down lower than this trendline, like maybe down here, I'd be like, okay, this one is probably the one in play.

So where do you like place stops in that scenario? Is it above the trendline high or just above the recent, the most recent high?

So in this case, let's say I didn't care about this other one that could be forming and I wanted to just play this one long. I think it's going to continue and I wanted to play this one long. Yeah. Um, I would probably put a stop. Okay, let's say we're saying like this, we're, we're thinking this is one that's forming, so we're thinking it's, it's gonna come down. I, I would probably place a stop like right above the high of this candle, like right here. Okay, like maybe I don't exactly like to use the exact high of the candle, but I do it like right here. In that, that, that trendline broke. And I would play it for this to complete down here. Now you, you do want to always make sure that wherever you're putting your stop, that the distance from where the price is at to where your stop is at, I believe should be less than or equal to the profit you would take if it dropped in this pattern completed. I would never want to put my stop so it would be higher than whatever the profit I could make. And that's kind of like personal preference. Of course. If people want to do like—

Do you have a minimum threshold that you would look for?

No, I wouldn't say like I have like a minimum threshold, but I would say I prefer not to play the ones down here after we've had this move. I prefer for there to be like an uptrends and try to come in and play like this one. Gotcha. So like the first one after an uptrend, the second one after an uptrend, probably when these start forming down here, I probably wouldn't have taken them. But like, so this one would not be one of my favorites to take because of the position, because it's already down so far.

So in this case, you might have taken, say, from here to here. Yeah.

That would've been one that would've—

Would it be a case where in terms of entry-wise, You'd want this to close, and when you see this close below the sort of mid-range of the Bollinger alongside where you're positioned in the market, you'd enter. So we can actually put on the short tool here. So say you enter, and then in this case, your stop loss probably be not directly on the high, just slightly above. Right. And then measuring low to high here. Yes. This would probably put us at— well, that would put us here. Which would be 3, so maybe something roughly without marking on it would be something like that. Right. Would that be kind of what you're going for? Yes. And then would it be similar on the next one? So if we just mark out one more, it would be a case where it's like here to— well, not there. See, you see the little rizzies, you get it. It's in my DNA now. Literally. So high down to low, and then same thing. So maybe with this one, it might be slightly different because um, of where the candle's closed, right? Might close down here. So maybe you might be getting in a bit of a lesser, um, entry point, like not as precise as you may like it. But regardless, but the low to high in this case is still pretty substantial. Let's mark it out for accuracy.

So below to that, and you're not going to catch them all, but the more that you try to do this and the more time you spend staring at charts, the better you get at it and the easier they are to catch.

5:15 will be roughly there, which would put us something like this, right? Yes. So then there'll still be an over 2:1 in that instance. Yeah. So really it comes down to where we're positioned in the market. Yes. So you don't, regardless of the rules, if we're at a low point, bit more reluctant to sell at that point, right? Rather prefer a buy to start form. Same with, you know, for our highs, that's not really— we want to be buying regardless of whether they're presenting there, we want to be selling. So is that where— does an element for you, as you mentioned, you know, it's quite fractal, this, and how it sets up, like it doesn't matter about the time frame. So say if you identified on the daily a bullish little Rizzi— it's a bit weird if I say, right— but a bullish one, but then price is already at a high on that day, you might be waiting sort of to align with price coming towards the low of that daily pattern, but it presents a bullish on a lower time frame for you to then execute. Yes. And do you layer the time frames in a way if you are short-term versus longer-term. Yes.

And, you know, one of the things that you also start noticing is— oh, we're on 5-minute. Okay. I'm probably going to drop it down to a 1-minute to show you because I've stared at these for so long. To anyone else, this might just look like sideways candles. But to me, if I lower the time frame, I'm going to see a little Rizzi more clearly. If I lower this time frame, Even though this is like sideways candles, I'm going to see that that was probably one forming. And so this is like— and what time are we at? So we remember Friday, 18:05.

Does the time of day at all impact your decision to trade, or any time of day?

I hate the open. Really? I hate it. Do you trade the open?

I don't know. I have Wait, let me say this.

I hate the New York session open. I like the London open. I like all the other opens.

Just not New York. It's too volatile.

I just, I stay out of, I stay out of New York's open, but there's seasonality within the day and I would highly suggest everyone study it. It will really blow your mind. There's certain hours of the day that are net negative historically over hundreds of years. Well, not hundreds, let's say like 50 years because the studies I've seen, most of them have gone back about 50 years. And one of the things you will find is that like the New York session is usually net negative and the rest of the time is net positive, which is kind of interesting. There was actually a study done in '08 and, um, it said during the '08 crash, if you had just like bought the New York open and sold the New York close, like throughout the whole crash down, I don't know exactly, but it was something like you lost like 45, 45% or something. If you had done the reverse and you had actually bought the close of the New York session, and then and held overnight and sold the open, you were net positive and you made like 8% even during 2008. That's interesting. Yeah. So like I would highly suggest everyone study seasonality. It's very interesting. So that stuff really does matter. So what that would tell me is that like statistically there's always a bias towards going short during the New York session. Yeah. Except towards the end of the day it tends to shift. There is, there is usually like a run towards the end of the day. So I think this is, this is what we're just looking at at the 5-minute chart. And you can kind of see when you zoomed in from the 5-minute to the 1-minute, it was a little bit more easy to see. Yeah. So that's one of the things if you're trying to learn these. I, when you see something like this, and you're like, hey, this might be a zoom in and you might see it more clearly on a lower timeframe. Whereas on here it just looks kind of like it's trading sideways and you'll eventually learn them. And it's just a really helpful way to understand the trend.

No, definitely. I think that's definitely, you know, goes back to your point from the original podcast is spending that time dedicated to the charts because You know, me, I remember going back to when I first started learning charts and, you know, I just done an extensive 2-day course with people, like, you know, learning all these concepts. But as soon as I was by myself, it all felt like gibberish, like I couldn't see anything, like what was I looking at? And only through then repetition, repetition, repetition do you slowly start to build your confidence. And only at this stage, really over the last couple of years, I was spending a lot of time on lower timeframes. So then to your point, looking at something like this, you can sort of see that without even going lower, we can start to sort of see the structure. So if I was to just look at it and try and break it down, it would be a case where we know 1-minute-wise these are all highs and lows that are taking place, and then that breaks. So we know on a 1-minute already that there's a break of structure that's taking place there. The trend changed on that lower timeframe. Whether it stays there or not, we can already have that understanding. But for a new person, they won't probably know that until they do, as you said, the repetitions and get that chart time in to really train the eyes to see the market in that way. But back to your point, for the whole concept and strategy we've gone through today, you know, it's really taking all of these concepts you could learn and sort of trickling it down to 3 key components to focus on. And the amazing thing about it really is that it's fractal as well. So it's not a case where, hey, this only works on big macro perspective, you can shrink this all the way down. But to your point as well, the nuances of practice, right? And you're not going to see the same thing as everyone else. You've really got to decipher and pick up on the traits and the patterns and the recurring themes that you notice through doing your backtest or doing your live charting or your data collection.

Yeah, right. I get a lot of messages from people that tell me they have a problem with selling too early, like they can't let winners ride. You know, I would say if also, if you have some strategy that you follow and you're struggling with trying to let your winners ride, you might want to add this to what you're already doing because it might give you more confidence to let some of your winners ride. If you see, hey, this little Rizzy formed, it's in my favor, it's going to go up another 50 ticks or something, that this might be what gives you the confidence to stay in it and, and let it ride. Because most of our money is coming from the ones that we, in my eyes, again, all the traders will contradict themselves. In my eyes, the ones that I let run are the ones that end up making all my money. So learning how to let winners run is a really important skill. And so this might give you that extra confidence you need if you see this aligns with it to just let it go until this is done, and then you might get out and take your profit.

Definitely. Definitely. And aside from what we've talked about, just to finish off, in regards to the chart time and that sort of preparation and dedication to doing so and training the eyes. Is there anything when it comes to implementing this that stands out to you as something that people should be aware of, or maybe a particular struggle point that they should be aware of then when they're trying to implement or look at this?

I would say before you just walk out and start trying to do it, spend time practicing it because you're going to make a lot of mistakes in the beginning. I'm still wrong a lot to this day, uh, with trying to identify them in real time. So practice drawing them historically and identifying them historically so you can grasp the concept, but then also spend a lot of time doing them, um, in real time where they're not complete yet. So you can start to learn, um, things you're missing when you're coming in too early. Um, when you're right, when you're wrong, and you'll just slowly get better at perfecting it. Now, I, I'm telling you, like, the longer time frames, it's a lot easier to do. That's why I say I love this strategy for trying to find the bottom of stock market crash. If you want to enter, take a big position, or you just want to like over-leverage your portfolio, you know, those, those would be the moments. And I, I think because, um, if you're doing on the 5-minute charts, the data is coming in fast, you have to quick decisions. So I think sometimes learning it on the longer time frames can be easier because you can spend more time analyzing it and you can add other things to it also and get all of your Fib retracements in there. And you can look at the, the fundamentals in the economy and see if they kind of align. Whereas when you're on the 5-minute charts, you don't have the time to do all that. And it's really won't be as helpful. So just practice, practice, practice. Don't just jump in and swim and start doing it and think you have it. Like take time practicing. And like I said in Words of Wisdom, the longer you stare at charts, they will eventually start to speak to you and you'll get it and you'll start to see it. So just take your time before you start putting money behind it. Definitely.

I love that. Well, I will apologize in advance for all the messages you'll probably get off the back of this episode. Um, because no doubt there'll be people with questions. Drop them in the comments below. But thank you for doing this as well. Again, you know, you turned us down before, but I think thanks to the people and their, you know, constant, um, you know, questions and asks to get you on Chart Fanatics, we've been graciously, um, you know, really, really happy to have you. Really, really happy to have you. But any comments or questions, like I said, drop them in the comment section below. Let us know what you thought of this episode. Links to Marcy will be in the description below, so go check those out also. Other episodes are on screen right now, so make sure you check them out. Actually, we have one with Anthony Crudell who went through the Bollinger Bands, so maybe that could be a good sort of connection point there. But hit subscribe, and until next time, this has been Chart Fanatics. Take care.