What fraction of attempted trend moves 'go through' according to the speaker?

Kardec TraderFutures Trader. Creator of The Midas Touch. Mentor

The Truth About Trend Following (EYE-OPENING)👀

26 Sept 2025 · 1 min

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0:51

A short excerpt from a YouTube talk arguing that trend-following strategies face statistical limits: only about 30% of attempted trend moves 'go through' while most price action stays in a 'fair value area', causing many stop-outs. The speaker stresses that traders often expect unrealistically high win rates (e.g., 70–80%) because they try to predict markets instead of reading market signals.

Questions this video answers

About 30%.

Chapters

This pattern is presented when the bell curve of the distribution of the day, you are exactly jumping on a trend to go against the lower distribution of the volume. And what this says statistically is that only 30% will go through. The rest will remain in what is called the fair value area. So you will just keep getting stopped out till the market really decide to take off. This is the reason a lot of traders that try to embark on a journey of using trend following strategies, they understand really soon that the win rate is not what they were expecting, like 70, 80%. When they try to target, for example, this level from here, and they say, okay, I will just have 50%, 60% win rate one to three. This is not real because you are not reading what the market is saying. You are trying to predict the market.