The WCE Market Outlook

And we are live. Welcome everyone back to World Class Edge. We are here tonight with Tom Forval and Serge Hoffman from World Class Edge CTT directly from Cypress Live. Welcome back to World Class Edge with this World Class Edge market outlook. Fabio is not going to be here tonight I think for the, for the next 45 minutes, but he will probably join later. But in the meantime, let's get a look about what the markets are doing overall. What's the current context of the markets? We have a lot of new stuff that happened since last month, unfortunately from the macro perspective and the macro data, we don't have a lot of data because of the government shutdown in the US So they did not release a lot of new information. But the Fed has said that they will probably keep the rates where they are. They're not gonna, they're not planning to do many cuts. We've seen some movements on the euro dollar, some movements of bullishness in the dollar overall and some new stuff regarding also the earnings of the Magnificent Seven, including Nvidia earnings who got out yesterday. And Tom also was talking about it in one of the previous live sessions about the nasdaq, if I'm correct, and called a short on NASDAQ in our community yesterday. So if you want to start walking us through, what's your current view of the market, Tom, and we can start.

From there if you want.

Yeah, I can talk a little bit because two days before I talked to everybody, pretty please sell your Nvidia. But it was a little bit joking. I have no idea what happened after the earnings, but I have seen a technical side of it. I will share it with everybody. I think it will be better.

And then we will be able to understand a little bit deeper what we explain. I hope it is the right one. Yes, it is the right one. Yes. But before we look.

Yes, perfect.

Now it is there. Before we look deeper into the market, search will explain you a little bit more about the market profiling, especially from today nasdaq. If you have risks for other market, we can look inside. But let us talk a little bit about Nvidia. Yesterday we had earning time and before I make an analysis of the max 7 and what we see was interesting because we have had a lot of selling pressure a few days before then we was preparing range like this here and normally we have here a signal for breakout, but it was the first signal and we was not under the last low. Then I talked to everybody. I think the opportunity is very high that we will go back to this body of The B. But what is a B? I will explain you a little bit more about a B that we will understand. My idea of the markets you have to think about. A lot of you think I knows B shapes or anything else from market profiling. Everybody will understand that here is coming a lot of pressure after it. Here's a fair value price and here's a repo. For example, if you take it with market or volume profile, then it is POG and the same as with a B profile. The beef profile shows me very easy if I count the closing prices of the market where I have to go inside. And that was the reason that I tell everybody. I think if we don't go with the gap over this price level from 196, we will go back again and we do it now. And that was my idea because I looked also for Tesla, I looked for Amazon, I looked for Microsoft. And I do all this analysis with every market. And then I decide let us look a little bit deeper and think about what we can do. We can do and go into NASDAQ short. And that was my idea. I opened my short positions here, but why I did. Sorry, this is S and P. That was the first. I opened my positions here in the middle after the open was broken and the trade was amazing. I started it here and I will give you an explanation why that was a range pre market and pre market. The gap was coming from Nvidia and we understand very clear that the opportunity is high that we will make a gap close. And for me this gap had nothing of volume here before. It's a gap and a gap as a situation like a very fast trend with nothing inside. And if we don't have a breakaway gap the opportunities high that we close it. I decided to go into NASDAQ future and we do it. We have a nice take profit at first, but then I decide a little bit other things also I decide to go deeper inside. And now you see it in ticks. But this is not a problem. I also put more positions inside after the break from this price area. Pre market. Normally we use all the time the cash session, but you have to use pre market times frames. If you think about deeper, what happens and why is there coming a big gap with Nvidia or anything else. And then I decide to go out. It was a little bit too early. Yes, I know. But the profit was amazing. And now I saw that the mark will go more deep and more deep. And for tomorrow I. I think it is very, very, very important to look let us do it together, live into the market. What will come now at next. This is S and P. But it is nearly the same picture. And I think if you want search. Yeah. Yes. Here's Nasdaq. Sorry. And if you want search, you can explain a little bit more about the picture of the market profiling. Because he's a maximum chief from the profiling.

Let's get me in. Hello everybody or everyone.

Yeah.

What I want to talk about your market profile is what's something interesting is if you focus first on the weekly profile because it's this interesting situation. And we see clearly here that if you're looking on the weekly profile you see some interesting stuff here. And one those of some interesting stuff is why I cannot moving to the right. Okay, maybe so it's too slow, but I need to do it. So what interesting is we see clearly here this profile here. And this profile told me somebody a strong seller stepped in the market and maybe they put the push the market lower and lower and lower. And this told me in this situation here we have a nice balance was a market was in bed that mean buyers and seller accept this price range. And then the strong stellar, strong stellar seller stepped in and pushed the price lower. And the market go every time lower. New balance, put it lower. New balance, put it lower. New balance. And for me it's a situation where if I see this situation in the markets it told me it's possible that the market go lower and lower as long as not traded above this single prints. And we see also that the value area also shipped lower and lower and lower. And that's why situation told me yeah, we see also that's also the new lows create new lows in the market. And that's told me it's good opportunity to looking for short trade. But in today's situation or completely in the market, what we happened for the now is an interesting situation because we see that the market going every time lower and lower. But one thing it's not going with the market and that it's a high volume. And this situation it's a. A little bit like. Like. Like forgot the word anomaly in the market and that need to repair. And for me is now clear that today the market going short was very really clear. But it's not so on the daily profile. Tom, maybe Tom, what I say say go short. For me it was not so clear at the moment because I know that the market is going short because all the value area shift down. But the vpoc, the high volume every time on the Weekly profile it's not shift lower. We see also here that's nothing traded. That's no really really strong volume here. And that is for me the anomaly.

And.

And that's why I focus today on the daily profile where restore. Sorry, what I'm not working here. And that's what's interesting for me today why it was so interesting for me today the first time that I do two trades and I have two losers Thomas making money. Yeah. It's also two different traders. I have the same same direction. I want also think ads. Everything in the market is crazy. It's not like a normal market because if you see NASDAQ and you see also S P and you see also Dow Jones Dow Jones and S and P they. They shoot to the absolute like a rocket. But NASDAQ they hold every time if it's make a new highs and they make new highs. It's so slow and really really not so strong buying in Nasdaq. What's happened and that's. I always think oh man, everything in the market is wrong. Because if somebody wants to buy want to buy they need also clear to show us like maybe maybe in the imbalance in the footprint strong buying and something. And that's not happened today because I wait that the market changed that SMP and also Dow Jones change to the short and then the crash. But today for me it's not so lucky day. I'm all every time too early to the shots. And and we see here clear it. That's a nice, nice, nice move what the market told us. Because on the big picture we see clearly that the market is going down. And also today we have a clear picture now that's the market also told us on the small picture that's the accept that the market going lower. And it's told us also on the profile that we see here. That's a clear nice daily profile. And for me it's now interesting profile because we need to see what's happened and whether market closed today. Because for me it's not so really really clear that the market may be going on the next week short. Because we see on the weekly profile that's the high volume still on the higher prices and not move with the market. And this profile it's like nice B shape. Like a B shape. And that's told me if the market maybe close.

Inside this profile it can be happened that that's the market test back the V box naked V box. And if it's market but close completely outside or below the Valley area. It's told me that the next week we maybe have a new trend to the short side and that's what I'm waiting now. Today is really really or this week is really really interesting. We need to wait. What's happened today in the market? I'm not really. I don't know. Tom, do you believe that the market going short?

I I think okay.

Currently it looks like and for me it's not so clear because it's very interesting situation in the market today and we for me I need to wait what's happened on the closes but if the closes below the well area today then I also on the top side that we may be have a nice nice situation next week and that's we have a maybe strong downside trend next week in the in the stock market also in the in details. And yeah that's how I looking for market profiling and that's today for me it's not so clear for the shots but it's maybe for me it was very clear.

Yeah but I'm much more patient like search and also I think it is for everybody very very interesting if you have a story behind and my story was very clear for me because I looked for Nvidia and anything else and it helps me to to have more trust in my trade. And this is. This is sometimes good and sometimes it's a little bit hard because if you have a b big idea and it doesn't run you have two or three stop losses and then it's not so cool. It's expensive. But today it was amazing. My story was working. Everything on the technical side was easy. The story behind was for me amazing good. And that was the reason that I waited for the chart and I was also a very early shot inside. But I waited for it and I had luck that my stop didn't gear out from the market. And I have the opportunity to make my size bigger and this is my way of trading. But for the future it is more important to look now what happens with other macroeconomic things. And I think Andrea will tell a little bit deeper and more insight. Yes, yes.

I wish I could go a lot deeper but unfortunately as I said we don't have a lot of data to base our our.

But the trend is the same. Let's see if we have some question for you guys. First.

The daily tpo is it including the pre market profile or just the cash session?

No, it is only the cash session and it gives me more information, intelligent information because the cached session shows me the biggest volume of the day and the pre session I can also put inside. I like it sometimes. But if we make intelligent supply and demand levels, we use the cash session for day trading. For longer.

Whoa.

For longer trading we use the 24 hours profile like here. And you have to. You have to decide what kind of profile do you prefer and what time frames you will trade. And I can give you only the big tip that you use the cash sessions. It's much better to prepare your intelligent business zones like today or the days before. You can see my business one, it was here. And my trade was if you're.

If you're.

Okay, cool. I. I tell all the time what I explain.

Sorry for it.

So I will share it again. Sorry. No problem.

Okay.

Yes. Here you can see my mouse. This is a weekly profiling and it is 24 hours. Also the TPOs are special for us. And here is the cash profile for the day trading. And we use only this cash profile because we have the best information of the real volume, the big volume. And it helps me. And yes, also you can use a 24 hours profile. But then you have to think deeper about the business levels we use for breakouts and also for break ins or for trend following trades like today. And this is the way we use. All right.

Yeah.

Yes, yes, yes.

They ask if you use the single prints as support and resistance.

No, not only as a target at first, but we make combinations from it. For example, if you have a single print and another information together. It is interesting for me because I understand big aggressive players are coming into the markets. And also I understand understand where as the wall where the big money will grow. And then I have nice allocations for breakout, for counter trades. I combinate it all the time. I never use only a single print for a trade entry. Only for exit.

Why TPO and not volume profile? It's actually both. Christian.

Yeah, sorry, it's both of them. If you. If you look clear inside, you will see it. We have. Yeah. This is volume and this is market profiling. Market profiling. Explain me who is dominating the market currently. And the volume profile shows me where are the big steps where the market will break. It's very easy.

Yeah. Or you can also told that the market profile told to told you what's the context Maybe for today or on the long term. And the volume profile told you or show you that's a market. A good make, a good job or the bad job. That's a nice combination. If the market profiling told us it's today. It's maybe short. Then the volume need to also follow the context of the market profiling. And if not it's not making a good job. And if. If it's follow, it's make a good job.

Yeah. If the supply and demand are done going against stories from the market profile, it is not cool. Yes.

Yeah. Can I explain something interesting?

Yes.

Yeah. Look, look. Like this situation, what the market profile told this situation. You see.

Okay.

Take the mouse only. Yeah. Okay. You see here. This is a profile that's told me it's a trend profile and a strong profile to the downside. And we see clearly to single prints. It's very, very strong. But what interesting. And that's why I told it's maybe. Maybe it can also happen that we have see that the market also can go to the high next week. We see here clearly the high volume. It's not following the strength of what the market has told us that so strong maybe sell off, but the volume not shifted with the shorts. And that's it's possible also maybe or today on the cash flows or maybe also on the Friday that the market also can go in completely up to the high volume. That's it's not like an anomaly in the market. And if you see if the market shift the volume to the downtown, then the market make a good job at the moment we see it's a strength strength profile. And the shots are also still in the day, but they make a not good job for the moment. That's how the information we use or also also use I use for me.

But I think we have time. The closing is in three hours.

Yeah, it's maybe change.

Yeah, a change can come. The volume profile is going upper and upper and so long the range will build, the opportunity will be higher that we have range change from the point of control.

Yes.

Okay.

See if there's some other questions.

We have no secrets. You can ask us everybody. Because I think it is very important to know that we are from world class edge also we are from trades to traders. We have no secrets. We will explain you everything what you want to know. Because the secret is how you use all this. All this stuff like market profile, single print areas you have to use and anything else, how you combinate it, how you create your intelligent way of trading. And this is a secret. In the markets.

They ask what was your idea with yesterday earnings like Nvidia and the market moves. What do you think about it?

Please again, Andrea.

Sorry, I don't have.

Video guest.

Yeah, I do it only on the technical side, I have done it. I showed you before. I will do it again. For a moment here that I looked at first in Nvidia, where was the gap? Where was the market going? I do it again away. Sorry for it. I need one second. At first I look yesterday where the market is closing. It was here and on anywhere. And then I look, where's the lowest price, where's the highest price? From the last range, I count my levels and then I think when we open inside, the opportunity is high, that we close it because we are in a fair price range. And if we are in a fair price range, the big players like it and prefer it to get fair price levels. And that was the reason why that I was very trustful that we will close the gap today. And that was the reason that we go short in nasdaq. This is everything. If you have aggressive selling a range going down, gap is coming inside of the range, the opportunity is high, that the gap will close. It's a normal way.

But if we open here with a gap, the opportunity size, if we make this okay, you have to understand the roots of supply and demand areas and also of fast trends or of stable trends. You have to understand everything of it and you have to understand the knowledge behind that. You feel comfortable when you use stories like this?

Yes.

This is a good question. Are your traits all mechanical rules set up or does discretionary. Can you hear me? Yes, right. Or does discretionary feelings come into play with your trades?

No, the. The discretionary side is the feeling with the speed in the taper, for example, you have to understand when is the speed powerful or when is the speed low. This is a little bit discretionary, but it is also experience in the markets and the rest is 100% clear. We have to know where the mark have to go. Where are the intelligence level to broke when single prints come, what happens for example, in the footprint, where are the fair price levels? And then the disc discretionary side is only to understand is the speed powerful and fast or is it slowly? And that you have to learn. And if you learn it a little bit more, you have enough experience to understand the different markets and the structures of the different markets. Yes.

And a lot of people asking something like this.

Because some people get chopped out in the. In the exit right when we break out of the pbd. And so one person is asking, how can I, you know, how can I avoid this? And another person is asking, what do you look maybe in the footprints for when you expect a breakout, for example, is There something you look for in the footprints?

Yes. Yeah. If you want you can explain it for the breakout.

It's a really, really simple rule. If you want to make a breakout. Maybe we focus here on this breakout to the loss. Yeah, okay.

Oh, okay.

Yes. If you're looking. Maybe we want to look at here for this breakout scenario here.

And we need to focus what's happened first on the lows of the previous lows. If we see now let's look and check what's happened in the footprint first on the lows. This is May five minutes. We need to. To make this high. And you need to focus what's happened on the lows, Tom? Why it's so slow. Okay, maybe I need to. Oh, sorry. That's so. Yeah, that's okay. And you need to focus.

Okay. I forgot how I use Sierra chart because I trade so long now on the other platform. And you need to focus what happened on the lows. First we need to make a little bit bigger because we need to see.

Okay, that's too much. Oh, come on. So. Okay, stop. Oh man.

Wait, Tom, I need your help.

How can I move this chart to the lows? Why? It's not working with.

This is. This is the first time I see search asking for helpful charts to talk normally. It's the other way around.

Yeah, yeah, we need to. Yeah, yeah. Because I. I forgot how. How I use. Yes, yes, that's it. What I need. Okay. Which. Yes, stop. That's okay. So.

Okay.

And what we focus now is. Let's see. Is this break move? Yes, it says. Okay, that's a scenario. What we need to focus here is. Wow, it's so fast. We need to focus what's happened on the lows. Maybe this low here first. And if you see here, if you focus and see what's the size? I. I don't know. Don't normally really know. You see this small sizes here on the lows. Because I cannot make a bigger.

So seenable. Not so seenable.

Yeah, it's.

It's.

It's a small sizes. It's maybe on the sell side. Five. Five contracts, six contracts, two contracts and low. And if you want.

This is the nasdaq, right?

Yes. And if you want to trade the breakout, you need to focus what's happened before the lows or after that. And if you see that the market moved to the low and the volume increase on both sides. Bid and ask so size market, sell, market buy. You see here it's a one digit. And in this situation, if the market Come lower to the lows. It says two digits on both sides. It's increased volume between buyers and sellers. They accept this low. That's mean if the volume was traded on both side then they accept the market and that's. It's possible that we have a nice strong downside breakout momentum. If you see that's nothing traded on the load like the same situation.

Okay. Make. Yeah, maybe it's also so good.

Yes.

Okay, thank you. You see here if it's coming to this breakout and you see on this situation that buy and sellers are really, really big on the both sides. Two digits at first was one digit every time on bid ask and this time it's not two digit. And then you need to look maybe for the confir on the speed, how fast the orders traded between bid and ask and the low. And if you see size increase on both sides and also the speed. It's a good, good, good opportunity for strong momentum. That's how you can looking on the footprint for the breakouts. That's the situation you see every time. For nice, good breakouts, I hope.

Nice. This is a very good tip guys. Write it down. Guys, this is very important. Just this is worth a lot of trades.

Yeah.

I will give a quick explanation of it. If you have especially opa. Sorry. If you have a setup like a B. Okay. And you know pressure was coming and you have a range here and the same story is coming like Serge explains that you have a lot of volume at the low of this range. The opportunity is high that it will broke. If you have B here for example and you have nothing of volume here, the opportunity is higher that it make a pullback and then it can broke. When the speed is coming and the big orders are headed inside. These are the difference between a normal B. If you see it only technical. You have to look off the speed. You have more opportunities that you understand when the breakout will come. But if you use also the tape and the footprint chart the opportunity is the biggest for you that you have at the right moment. Your short rate.

I think it is a cool edge. What we explained here and I think most of the people don't have have.

Knowledge like this from scalping breakouts. We give here for free and I hope everybody will understand it and you use it in the future.

Yes.

Put a. Put a W in the chat if you like what you're. What you're seeing tonight. Guys.

There's a lot of questions.

Okay. So many questions. I don't know which one to ask you.

Okay.

Any Advice specifically for the ducks. Something about the daily action of the ducks.

The DAX future.

Yes.

Oh my God. Next future we can look about. I have today one stop loss and after it I have one nice trade I have not here now, but I will give you also here a quick and dirty explanation of it. It is not so easy to trade tax future because the liquidity is so small. You have to understand a little bit more the combinations with other markets or to combinate it with the stocks. And if you will use, if you will trade only DAX future, you have to be a big of experience with it. Trust in me, it is not so easy. Tax future will be sometimes very, very bad pitch. Sorry for the words, but it is true. And you have to see here it is a little bit the same like before, but it is the difference is that I will make a picture for you that you will understand it. Wait a second.

So.

Especially DAX future allow it to make fix. If you have a range like this.

You will see the first time it goes here down after it, it goes up after it, it goes back again after it it goes really down. And then you have two opportunities. One trade here and one trade here for a fast breakout. But you have to know the slippage will be bigger index future if you have a big size inside, if it runs back again, for example, and you have a stop loss here, trust in me, very often you have two or three points better your exit with a stop loss. And this is the reason that I think especially in F Dax, you have to look deeper and better for your risk. One other thing in DAX future is that it breaks. When it breaks very often not like this picture you see here. Very often DAX future breaks a little bit, runs back again and then comes a real breakout. You have to know if you will have a breakout on the technical side. You have all the time to wait for the second low. And if you wait for the second low, the opportunity is much higher. That it breaks is a little bit different from the technical. Technical structures like S P Future or like NASDAQ all the time. I tell everybody if you want to trade fdx, you have to be crazy. I love it, but I'm crazy. And if you want to be a true and a good trader with not so deep knowledge, use other markets. It is better. Especially Search and me. We have all the time fun when we talk about DAX Future and trading in it. Because we are very different traders. And yeah, this is the reason that that we don't explain a lot of things from DAX Future. The Liquidity is too small. You can see it here in the book. It's. It is a little bit late session. We have so many gaps inside. It is not cool to trade it.

Nice.

Quick and dirty. It's how we like it. Okay.

We're not giving signals yours guys. Because everybody's saying should I go long, should I go short? I want to go full margin. I say no, guys, no. It's not what we're here for.

Yeah. You have to know margin is to use all the time. If you have a small margin, use everything. It's joking. It is joking. And it is so important to understand your risk and margin account. Sometimes I think it have to be forbidden for traders with nothing of experience because people lose so much money. If you have a leverage of 200, 500, 1000, I can't understand it. And big brokers, like especially interactive brokers or anything else, they have a big margin for Dax future that you can use this instrument for yourself. You have to put a lot of money inside and it is good that it is like this.

Yeah.

That's why, you know, in, in also in Europe there is a limit of 1 to 30 leverage in CFD. There's a reason. There's a reason. Guys, please, please respect, respect the 1 to 30. It's for your safety.

Yeah, yeah. We don't like gambling. We love true trading. And if you have a lot of stop loss in one line, for example 10 or 12 or, or 15, you can broke your account. You have to think about what has happened or is it okay with my strategy and then you have no problems.

They asked if you have any update on your gold short idea that you brought last month, Tom.

Ah, last month my short rate. Yeah, it was a very nice run again to the top, but we shorted again. But I know everybody can tell stories like this. But I give you a small explanation and I think everybody will see it with the first I where is a level we wait for and make a short again. It was here. I give you a quick watch from the market profiling. Remember we go inside with the first short in this level price level here. When we go over the top after it, we build it a value here after it the next pressure is coming value. And now remember here was inside and inside all the time means ranging and rating. And after inside very often the marked maker a big, big.

Run run to the tops or to the lows because this is waiting and the pressure is growing bigger like a small range. After it it comes a plump. And if you have a Big range. The breakout is not so fast. But now we are going back again to the value of this big selling prices. And after here was also single print. Single print. The first one was repaired and here you have a combination. Then we go over it and back again. And the real, real money is going deeper. And here was the best place for the next short rate. And now we're going back again to the fair prices. We are now in Neverland. Neverland range from Michael Jackson. And here we have. We have here. We have to wait now again. What can happen that we can go a little bit up but it is not the same like here. I think the.

Big difference is that we have the report here now and it going goes a little bit deeper again. If we go deeper like this, we broke this level and then we will shoot very hard down. When the marked the stock markets will go down. I think the liquidity will also go outside from gold because there's so, so much crazy liquidity inside currently.

And how about bitcoin also Bitcoin?

Oh, I don't. I didn't load the bitcoin future.

I have no picture here. Give me one second.

Let me, let me answer some question in the meantime.

Yes.

Whereas.

How would you have traded today's price drop? If you mean in the Nasdaq? He just explained it. Just rewatch the session because he's explained how he basically created the short idea of it.

How do I distinguish between an absorption and a breakout? It depends on what this does after the big trades happen.

So let us look at first to bitcoin. And yes, it's running down. Yes. I think everybody who was looking with us together about Bitcoin coin in the first market view, I tell you when we broke the level of 120,000 that Bitcoin will go deeper in the near of 95,000. But now it goes much. And what happens now we are going under all these ranges.

Here we have.

A nice inputs with a P. We are now under this price levels. We break it. That was the reason that I tell you here it will be at first in the price area of 995000 and now the next level we can use is this one. And I think it will go today. But when we go deeper like this level we have a big problem. One, two, three lows. And then we will go deeper. Like I think I talk it to everybody that this will be the next level when the market broke very hot down. But also here is opportunity that we have a pullback. We will see. But you have to look for counter trading setup here when the pressure will be like. Currently, bitcoin is very weak. You have to think about bitcoin is going like this now. The stock markets are going like this. Gold are going like this. Okay. And now you can see the biggest speculation and the stupid money is here inside in bitcoin and not in the stock market and a little bit in gold.

I built all the tank combinations.

Yeah, please.

Yes.

Awesome.

And we have another guest here tonight. With us we have Fabio. Welcome to. Welcome back to World Class Edge. How are you today?

Hi, beautiful people. How is it going? I was watching the. The setup of Tom on the bitcoin. He called out an amazing short. I remember Tom was saying a retracement, but also I was shocked by the short on gold, Andrea. Like gold was going up from I don't know how many months. Tom said from here we stop and we go short minus 4% next day. Crazy.

Yeah, yeah. It's absolutely crazy.

I will.

I will share the screen. Just give me one second.

Yes.

Hello, Fabio.

Hi, Tom.

Hi, Serge.

So I think, I think you. They can see the screen, Andrea.

Yes, now they can.

Okay, so this one, it's a statistical model for bitcoin and it's based on multiple information. The first one is the revenue of the miner. The second one is the distance to the holding. And this model, it's really powerful when you want to accumulate the assets and you don't want to only enter, speculate and make money on the short term. Okay. So of course, if you are a speculator scalper, you can make a crazy amount of R multiple by shorting this movement. But if you want to have an horizon of 3, 6, 9, 12 months, 2 years. 3 years. You need to understand when the asset is overvalued and when the asset it's undervalued. At the moment we are below the fair value, but we are not still undervalued. We will start to be undervalued with bitcoin again when we will reach the 73,000 based on miners revenue. And this is the level I expect that we can reach based on the M2 liquidity shift and based also on the cycle of the. Of the asset. Because bitcoin have a really predictable behavior based on the distance to the holding. Okay. Historically, it always does the same things. And there was never in history a bull market like this. Why I say like this, because the maximum retracement that we made here was I think this one that was 30%. Usually Bitcoin get us used to see a 60, 70, 75% retracement. And this is used also as a flush of the retail traders because they use a huge leverage. And now let's consider also that this asset, it's in the end of the big players. So you see BlackRock, you see players like Citibank or JP Morgan that was never interested and in the last four years have big position on Bitcoin. So in this case their accumulation plan is based exactly on the concept of value of the asset and how you can understand the value of the asset. You can use models like the stock to flow the miners revenue, the net and realized profit and loss. And I want to show you one website that is called check on chain that is really amazing. It's free data intelligence for crypto. And the model that I like to use here, it's called mdrb. This model here is giving to Bitcoin a valuation based on this content, okay? And it's based on the address in loss is based on the standard deviation of the price. And as you can see historically this model performed amazing to buy the bottom. We are really close to a moment where we can take the bounce back, the dead bounce that we can see. Like Tom was saying, that is the movement where there is an inefficiency sell, there is a lot of aggression sell. And the market rebalance, okay? Because this market behavior is not convenient also for market makers. So you can see some kind of movement like this. And another one is the aggregation of all the models that are available in the market for crypto. The mbrv, the spend output profit ratio, SOPR and the pure multiple pole. And you can see that this model is based on understanding the confluence of mathematical models to see when the giga cycle is going to start. And we are still in the GCA cycle long. So I can expect that count bounce, okay? The next two, three months a movement up to close the cycle, okay? To have some kind of flag like this on the main data points that we have on Bitcoin. But remember that the risk that you carry by trying to predict the bottom on Bitcoin is the fact that you can be wrong if you buy on the fatal value because the price have oscillation, okay? There is less probability that you will see years of adverse price if you position yourself in the undervalue, okay? And the last time that we had Bitcoin undervalued was 22 of September 2023. So if we can go here, a lot of people will cry because they are over leveraged. Long. But I think it's something amazing for the industry because all the gamblers will be liquidated and the healthy accumulation of bitcoin can continue. This is my view on Bitcoin. This level, it's also interesting because it's the last point of profile from which they created the new structural high. Okay. Because they accepted this fair value up. So this level, it's a really interesting one. The problem is that it's not aligned with the real value of the asset. So I think this one can be, can give us a reaction, but it's not the long term law of the asset here. The same is for gold. We took this giga cycle long with Andrea in the live session and now I was trying to get a reaccumulation long. The problem, and this is a really short position because it came back to me, the problem for gold is that there was a shutdown in America. Okay. And when you have a shutdown, you miss the most important, from my point of view, information on data. The most important information for data, it's the COT report. Because the COT report is really transparent. Yes, it's came back. So I was saying that without the cot, you don't know what the biggest player are doing. So getting movement like this one or like we did on Palladium, it's really difficult to make. It's really difficult. This was a movement that we saw based on the position, extreme positioning on the net speculators, so asset managers. And now we have 45 days of shutdown, if I'm not wrong. So on the long term side, I'm not taking other position. The only one that I took and unfortunately went to stop loss was Humana. Humana. It's a project that is backed by insiders. There are a lot of insiders in the stock that are buying the stock. And we took the first movement here for a 60% increase. Now I'm accumulating the asset because the value of the stock is the same. The earnings surprise was crazy good 10% earning surprise. But the price is not always matching the value is what I was saying. With Bitcoin you can, you can have the value of the project on projection model of Bitcoin to 60,000, but you can have the price 140. So you are overvalued to the real value of the asset. And the reason why traders lose is because they forgot about fair value and volume like Tom is teaching you with profile. Okay? They just trade price. So if the price collapse, they try to short, short, short. And they don't Understand if they are too low on the curve, too short. So they are really close to a pullback for the metal side. I am waiting for a long on copper on the rebalance for intermarket analysis. Copper it's lagging behind.

The composition of this. This is how you can do intermarket analysis in trading view. You can compare with the other metals and it's way behind of the other metals. So I'm waiting for a breakout of this level for a auction eye so we. We can exit the the profile shape here and go at least to rebalance this inefficiency up is the most discount metal that we have in the. In the sector, the copper at the moment. The problem is that the commitment of traders report is not yet updated. Even if the stock market, even in the US Government started to put data back again. The last one that's not the second. The, the last, last one is drs. DRS is Leonardo. It's a defensive stock and I made some crazy trades on this one because it's really predictive historically on earning surprise earning surprise. For the one that doesn't know. It's a concept based on the mismatch between the price of the stock and the data that you have. So what happens is that you have a big gap. Okay, we can have an example here on this horizontal level. We can have an example here. We can have an example here. Okay, now what's happening is that the stock is following the collapse of the stock market of course for multiple reasons. But the surprise are coming really amazing. You have 20% increase in the revenue of the company 15. So the data is really good. And now we are approaching the previous accumulation point with the POC and the stock is really discount to its value. So if I need to choose one stock to pick at this moment will be Leonardo. Okay. Of course it's not financial advice. Everything else. The last one that I have running on the. The only trade that I have at the moment on the Forex side is €GBP for multiple reasons from the macro side to the last available commitment of traders report where you have a consolidation of the price. But the net commercial are here. Okay, so you can see the data that did this.

Okay.

What does it mean that the net speculators, the asset manager are really aggressive on the long side of Euro and really aggressive on the short side of on British pound. So that's the reason we saw this movement for the moment. The one that we can wait from my point of view is copper is the accumulation plan on Leonardo. That is defensive and in this condition of the stock market, I will not consider going long on tech at the moment. And Humana.

Okay.

Ah. And on the crypto side I forgot there is the the most important options level for XRP on very bit. And there is also the most important price level of the last years on Ripple Ripple. It's a project that I love because it's the delay of the crypto is the. The one that it's against all the rest because it's the puppy of the bank. XRP have the objective to be the reason the bank changed their system. Because it's faster, because it's more scalable, because have all the institutional adoption in the world at the moment. And in the last years I started accumulating XRP some 0.2 dollars and I'm doing a plan here where I work between the value area low and value area high. And they buy discount and liquidate higher. The revenue model of XRP is showing around $4.50 as fair value price. So we are discount. So it's a project that I like a lot. I'm accumulating again here and I really think that we can see a bounce when we see a bounce on Bitcoin. Remember also that XRP is the next ETF to be approved. So you have a huge inflow of liquidity in the asset in the next three, six, nine months. So it's a project that I like to have in my crypto portfolio and for the setup that's everything. I hope next week we will have more because finally after 45 days the data of the government is back.

Yes.

Let's see if we have some questions from the chat.

Yeah, there was a little bit of a blurry screen at some point. Yes.

Can I pay you $50,000 just to talk to you guys for one hour? There's no need.

I think the. The office of Tom it's ready. So if they.

If say once they can come every hour. 50,000.

Yeah, yeah, I can. We can take. I can send you the Eban. No worries.

Okay, perfect.

Yeah.

A lot of people asked about the programs. The programs are.

You can find them on our website and book a call with our team@www.world classedge.com.

Nice live stream. Yes, we will do more live streams here on YouTube.

Yes.

A search detected a special situation in Bitcoin future I think it is important for everybody to understand what you see and yes, thank you for sharing, Andrea. I think it is your story.

Talk about what interesting for me now for the Bitcoin is every Time. Yeah, we, we are still on the short side. But I talk every time if the market do a good job also the volume need to shift also lower. And the interesting part now is was here, if you're looking on the daily profiles at the moment, we see nice situation here. What's maybe we have maybe next days or next week, maybe a small pullback to the upside. But what's interesting is every time you see here. Oh man, I forgot how I need to work with Sierra chart. Every time you see here as a market and the last days, every time it's going to the lows. Every time it's test before it's crashed making new lows. It's every time test the fair value price like the most traded or most liquidated price area. And in this situation, what we see here, the last three days, all the liquidity is still on the higher prices here. And you see that's a clear downside move. But not, not so strong volume traded in the futures. And that's possible that the market maybe I don't really, really not 100% but it can maybe next days on tomorrow or also maybe next week. Let's test this price area again before it's down crash to the new lows. Let's see this is situation. It's really, really interesting because we see here high volume, high volume, high volume. And this prices. And in this situation if the market.

Make so, so high volume in the last days or three, four days and the volume don't shift then the big, big players at the moment, they're not really, really accept the lower prices. And that's possible that we see maybe a nice pullback to this price area before the market crash again next time.

Yeah, that's what I want to talk.

I think it is very easy to understand.

Yeah.

Okay guys. And we took a look at the markets and.

I don't see many more questions about this.

So guys, we'll wait for you in in the programs in case you're Interested on World Classed.com and for the next questions talk to our team and we'll see you guys here next month as well. Thank you Sergeant Tom for your views on the market. Thank you Fabio as well for your views on the market. It was very valuable as always. And we'll see each other in the channel with the rest videos that Tom is posting amazing stuff. And next month with the next market outlooks. So thank you very much everyone and have a great night.

Thanks a lot.

Goodbye.

Good evening.