The WCE Market outlook w/ @AndreaCimi @fabervaaleEng @TomVorwald & Patrick Nill

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Okay, we should be live now. Welcome everyone to World Class Edge. Let us know in the chat if you can hear us and see us properly. It seems like it is so, so. Welcome everyone to World Class Edge. This is the market outlook where me, Andrea Cimitan, CEO of World Class Edge, together with Fabio Valentini and Patrick Neal, the world trading champion and his mentor Tom are here to take a look at the markets with a long term perspective to see through the lens of the CRT report that unfortunately now is not really available because of the, of the current US shutdown and through macroeconomics and through in general volume analysis with the market profile and the volume profile where the markets are likely to be going in the near future.

And let's say in the next month with a swing type of perspective. And we are live now with 325 people. They're still joining so let's probably wait a couple more minutes till we are.

Fully, fully connected. Welcome everyone. Welcome, welcome. And welcome Patrick. Welcome Tom from Cyprus. How are you guys today?

Hello everybody. Thanks a lot.

I think we cannot hear you. You touched the. The microphone is red.

Now my microphone is red. Hello everybody. Nice to be here. Yes. Today we will explain you a little bit the way of trading, especially the long term perspective of trades to traders. We will give you a little opportunity to understand more the supply and demand way from us. It's a little bit different in yeah, the ICT or anything else stories and I think there's a lot of knowledge behind you will understand how the big players move the markets and yes, I think we have now a lot of interesting markets and we will explain it later and I'm happy to do it.

Yes, thank you. Thank you Tom and Patrick and welcome also to Fabio Valentini, our co founder and scalping master as well. Welcome to World Class Edge. How are you doing?

Hello guys. Welcome everyone. Today we are going on the swing side and we are going to see a little bit of setups on the stock market and we are going to see why in the next three months we can expect a big contraction on the stock market. We were discussing this with Tom and we think that a lot of people will buy the top and the market will collapse also on crypto. I will give you my reason then Tom will give his reason but I'm in the crypto market from you from the moment it was born. I made most of my capital out of it. And the on chain sign from the beginning of November are Really bad. So we need to go to give a check to it because now we are doing an amazing performance in our ledger in our portfolio of me and Andrea. And it's the moment to protect it and to prepare for the next bear market that we will have in 2026 because we can not only go up, also the stock market is really overextended if you compare price to earnings. So we will go through it. I will do maybe we wait two minutes, Andrea, that everyone connect. In the meantime, I can share my screen and you tell me if we want to do a quick Q and A while we wait that everyone connects.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. But I think we can start now. We are 506 people connected at the moment, so absolutely awesome. We can start.

Perfect. So let's start from what happened with the Trump tweet and what we can expect from it. So there are a lot of sign of the activity of the Congress members and a lot of sign of the activity of insider trading in the US government at the moment. You can check this because one minute before the tweet, a leverage short did 120 million of an account that got loaded the day before and only did one execution. So it's not an easy market. A lot of people will get burned if you are not prepared for this market and the Trump tweet move it. We need also to be ready to understand the market cycle that everyone forget and they think and have the dream that the stock market can always go up. I have the last positioning long for the stock market before the big move down. One of these is Meta that did an amazing liquidation of the low here, here and I expect a bounce back. This is a movement that we can make from here of 11%. I want to clarify that this is not a financial advice and the reason I'm evaluating this trade is because my model is based on earnings. So earnings are the driver and fundamentals of the market. When you see a surprise on earnings, it means that the company did 20% more than expected on actual margin. So it's a big number and that's the reason we saw a huge gap of Meta. Now, one of my model for the stock market is considering the closing of the gap that we just did here and is taking a reversal to go on the upper parts of the value area. Why? Because this is nothing different than a Gauss distribution that you can study in mathematics. And the playground is from one side to the other side. So the earnings model that I'm using already from four years at the moment Is using fundamentals plus volume. Now Tom and Padre can say Fabio, this is not real volume. It's right. This one is not real volume. This is market profile. To watch real volume, you need the volume platform. So you need platform that support an integration. And we are giving you the the trial of our platform at the moment. So let's go on. This is meta. Another one is Humana that I have in my portfolio. This one was funny because I was evaluating the long and seven politician of the US decided to put 8 million here. Now I don't want to believe in insider trading, but when politician buy the bottom with a huge capital what you can expect on the stock market it's a rally like this 42%. This movement, it's on positive earnings of 6% and it created a gap. This gap got filled here 2 of October. And this is the reason of my long position on Humana. At the moment I was in profit. It did 20%. Then it came down because this funny guy called Trump decided to tweet that it will put tariff on China. So we are going back down. But my final target is here. And to understand the reason of the target you can just take a profile and you can check what's the most probable level that we can reach. That is the upper part of the value area. Okay, so they are playing between this range. When it break up here you can already put your stop loss to break even. This is how I deal with earnings Surprise release and it's purely based on data. Okay, another one that we took and I think it can continue lower. It's crude oil. Maybe you will have the macro outlook with Andrea. This was a short that is based purely on macro and commitment of traders report. Now we don't have commitment of traders report because America decided to shut down. So they are not working anymore. They are on vacation. So it's one month that we don't have the new release on commitment of traders report. But the last one when the price was here, the commitment of trader report was super short. What does it mean that the institutions are selling billions here on crude oil so they expect it to collapse. And we were in an area that it was really interesting because it already got rejected multiple times. And if you are confident with profile that you will study with Patrick and Tom, you know that this one was a value very high. So you have a really big probability for the price to bounce to the other side or to collapse to the lower part of the profile. This is crude oil. Then this one was the best trade of the Year we did with Andrea. I usually give a lot of setup for free.

To study to. To study. And this one was the one that they gave with the bank BNP Paribas. Also this one was incredible because the price stayed here from mid 2024. But the institutions, the asset manager positioning was like this. Now we are small, we cannot move the market. Me, Patrick, Tom, Andrea cannot move the market. We don't have the capital to do it. So we need to be able to join the big players that are here. And what you saw here that reached the peak in May of 2025 was 3 or 4 billion of exposure long on palladium. Okay, so what happened at the moment was that palladium joined this uptrend following the data, the microdata. And what I like to do on this one, and you can already start to use is intermarket analysis. So comparing.

The copper with silver with gold to create an index to understand if in the metal and commodities you have a divergence. As you can see, this was the sector of the metals. Institutions were buying billions on palladium on all this level. And you can track them with the commitment of traders report and you have the metal sector that is going crazy Good. This is what I mean for buying discount, buying an asset at discount. And this is what they usually do for crypto. Now I don't want to scare anyone because the situation on crypto is not so good and someone will get liquidated pretty heavy on this one. You can study how the Halloween works and you can go on the weekly time frame. And it's already two years that we are going up from 20, 22, three years. We did 677% on crypto. Sooner or later this movement will finish and someone will be the last one to buy the top, like a Ponzi scheme. And the market will do this. Okay, now if we need to study historically the timing of the bear and the timing of the expansion, we are really close. We expect the start of the bear market in the beginning of November. So we have three weeks to go up. Two, three weeks to go up still.

Okay.

This Trump tweet was the reason the market decided to tank. And as you can see here, the top is usually done three weeks before. So I'm not so sure that this one will be visited again. It's possible that we will just test it and start the collapse down. So for crypto we did an amazing performance with the portfolio and I think it's time to take some profit. Maybe you can do arbitrage, maybe you can go cash or trade the model of Tom and Patrick. But it's the time to not be overexposed long and you will check this also with indices with Patrick and Tom because also for them is the moment to start loading a little bit of position, unloading position from the uptrend. Another driver of Bitcoin is liquidity M2 liquidity. As you can see in all the historical movement when liquidity start to go down, price tanks. When liquidity start to drive up, price explode up. At the moment still liquidity is going up. So that's the reason you are not seeing the effect. We can also have an approach of watching the anticipation of liquidity that gives you a little bit of timing on when to liquidate. But I expect this to be in the Q4 2025. So expect liquidity to start to tank and in the next three to six months start the bear market. Even if everyone is waiting for the altcoin uptrend then going on project that I really like one is Ripple one where I have the position open and I will explain you why I like crypto. I like crypto because the world is changing. I like XRP because the world is changing. We add always the swift system. So if I want to send money to Tom or to Patrick, I have to call a bank and say look, wire transfer them this money. I need an intermediary. Bitcoin was not really efficient to do this. Bitcoin was like gold. Bitcoin is like digital gold store value. But XRP solves a big problem because XRP is low on commission fast and following all the bank adoption protocol. So XRP can become the central bank digital currency infrastructure for all the governments. And they like it because it's compliant with the rules and they are already onboarding. There are a lot of bank in Japan that are onboarding and here in UAE if you go to ADGM in Abu Dhabi or difc you see XRPL everywhere because they are closing the partnership with all the banking system. When this one will receive the approval of the ATF really soon a huge amount of billions will flow in the underlying asset. And this is the reason I think they did also this liquidation. So I'm a little bit bullish. For still one month for XRP I took, I continue to accumulate. This is an asset that I continue to buy from when we are at less than 20 cents of dollar. And it's a project that is really strong from the institutional side. And the last one that I want to bring you is one pair of Forex, that is a trade that I have loaded in the moment. That is the long on Euro GBP for fundamental data and also for commitment of traders report. Okay, so it's this expansion higher. The last things that I want to give to you is a way to go against the chicken. Because we can understand that in financial markets 90% of people are chicken. They are really good at losing money. They don't understand the concept of the trend and they always want to take reversal. So they take stop loss, stop loss, stop loss, hoping that the market will go short. Okay, A good way to track this is watching the exposure on the Forex market of the chicken. Because usually the chicken trade cfd, they trade unregulated market. Okay, so what you can see here is the total exposure of traders short. Okay.

This is the, this is the chicken exposure index. Right?

This is the chicken exposure index. So and I want to demonstrate this to you because we can go in history. So the maximum amount of traders short was this time. Okay, look at the trend. Trend is going up, they are continuing to short, continuing to short, continuing the short. Then they decide to go long here and the market reverse down. Okay, if we go before all the chicken were buying the asset. Buying, buying, buying. This is the bottom, this is the bottom, this is the bottom, this is the bottom. So a really good, good and funny way that I find out in times on how to define trend is going against the crowd. If everyone goes long, I go short enough. If everyone goes short, I go long. It really works in the Forex market. Now everyone in the S&P 500 is long. So be really careful about the next three to six months because even if the fundamentals are still strong and then true liquidity is still strong, we are overextended. So it's the time to see a contraction in the next three months. And be really careful if you have leveraged position on crypto because we are getting at the top of the cycle. It's not today is not tomorrow, but in the next three months you can expect a contraction. So be really careful if you have big position on this condition because by the end of October the bullish cycle will finish and the probability that we will start a long term bear market, it's really strong. Yeah. So this is my overview of the market. I gave you some forex setup, some long term stock picking setup and some setups on crypto. Be careful out there. And I leave the the word to Tom, Patrick or Andre. I don't know who is next.

Yes. Before we move on I have some questions from the chat, I think. Let's see.

Do you also hedge pressure? I don't know what he means.

A question before was asking about the sharks and the big whales, what they are doing now on bitcoin because they think they are buying.

Now they are liquidating guys like the big whales. The last time in history where the big whales bought bitcoin is when I bought heavy bitcoin. That was this level. This is the last time they were heavy long. Now you have transparent data here. When the price was stationary, the whales were accumulating heavy and retail were selling. Now they accumulated here they did this movement. Now they are selling their position to the chicken. So the retail traders are buying the top and the institutions are liquidating. Be really careful to not be exiting liquidity at the moment. Yes, we can still have one spike up of crypto. It's possible. Bitcoin is really famous to do the last effort up before collapsing. Okay. But we are in the end cycle. Like we cannot expect another one year of uptrend. Okay. And if we can expect it, we have a market time indicator that is the M2 liquidity. So be really careful of how the liquidity is moving in the market. Because you can use this also for S&P 500. At the moment the whales are selling. The whales are selling. The last buy point was this.

Where to read on chain analysis for whale moving.

There are a lot of platform, they are paid. Usually there is glass node, there are.

I don't think there are three resources specifically if you want to see the whales. The one that comes to my mind that is really professional is glassnode. And you can read where the institution are positioned. But without paying. I can say to you that they are selling at the moment they are selling. We are really overextended. Retails are buying like if you see leverage buy, they are going like this. Okay. And this is the reason. I don't know if you if the chat read, but on the tweet tram it was the biggest liquidation of the history of crypto. 19 billion liquidated in one day. 3,000 people suicide themselves. And this is because they don't understand the cycle of the market. They just want to become rich fast and they buy the top hoping that price will go up forever. It's a really sad story, but you need to be careful with leverage. And for on chain data, Glass Node I think is the best in the world. It's paid, it's not free. Yeah, but you don't need it. You can just read On Twitter. There is a lot of information and data about this and the blockchain is transparent, so you can track. For example, one interesting information is that the portfolio that did 120 million.

On Friday.

Yeah.

With one trade that loaded this portfolio the day before shorted yesterday. I already told you, Andre, you remember? Yeah. Imagine how much he did. He shorted here again.

That I was doing the live with REITs, the live trading here. He shorted again here on crypto. So he did another 6% on Alpha billion. He went short alpha billion leverage. So imagine how much he's sure about the movement. Yeah. So.

Crypto is not for. For starting. It's a really difficult market if you don't understand it. But volume works amazingly here.

Fabio, let us explain a little bit about easy way and.

Easy stuff to get opportunities for intelligent trading ideas only with technical stuff.

What do you think, Fabio and Andrea?

Do you think it is enough to.

Understand the markets on the technical side or is it very important to understand all stories behind?

I know it is good for the.

Feeling to understand all the stories, but on my side I. I understand the stories, I know the stories. But I think it is also able and interesting to trade only with the.

Technical stuff and the technical side. And if I look for the markets, I can see it on the technical side. And it is very easy and.

Beginner friendly also.

Not just beginner friendly, but I think it's the technicals are a consequence of maybe the fundamentals, maybe something else. So you we can fought with with your method, I don't know with other methods, but with your method that follows the money.

I think it's possible, I think it's good. There are a lot of opportunities to understand a little bit on the technical side. I will give you a small explanation against bitcoin. For example, if you look for the last years, you can look, you can look after long beers, how long it is also you can look how long are the ranges.

And if you understand that the big money needs time to go out or to go in in the markets, you will understand very easy the stories when it is time to go. And if you see this and this and this way, I think for everybody it is so easy to see the power isn't inside. And also for everybody it is easy to understand that the sellers and the buyers now are fighting. And when I look a little bit deeper, I can show it with market profiling or anything else. This is a combination of market and volume profile. In the bitcoin future, I know there's not a Lot of liquidity inside. But the market profiling is the same like in the bitcoin normal market. And when I see it, I see here are the fair prices. The VPOC is very high. And I have done a Bitcoin YouTube video in the past and I explained two or three days before what will happen when we lose the level of 121,000. And I think for now, if we don't go over this level, over this.

Size of 120,000, Bitcoin will never go for new highs before we see a real collapse, like Fabio told to me. And I have no idea is the time in November or is it now? But I think we will see it very, very early now. And here, this is also from YouTube. We talked about when bitcoin was in the near of 125,000. And I give everybody the opportunity to go out with the bitcoins if the bitcoin grow under 120,000. All people now are talking about bitcoin. Everybody is talking that we will see a rally to 1 million to 500,000. And I'm not trust in it. I see a lot of other things the same like copper, the same like gold, copper have done in one week.

25% down, boom. And everybody is crying in bitcoin. It is normal that we have very brutal reactions. And what do you think, Andrea, will come in the future if we will lose 50%? There's nothing. It is nothing. When bitcoins make 50% down move, the.

Liquidity is so big.

And I think most of the institutional people are waiting for big, deeper crosses now.

I think they were not hearing me. I deactivated my microphone. I was saying that through. Through the blockchain, we can track these whales. And I think it's. It's. It speaks for themselves.

Okay, did you have any other ideas to share, Tom? I think we can move on.

Yes, I have one. One other idea.

Yeah, let's go.

It is not bitcoin. It is now. It is gold. And gold is a little bit crazy now. I don't know how long it will go, but I think we have to look for a little range. And when our little range is coming.

Over this price level we see now, we will have a similar picture like this. And that was a copper crash. And you have to understand, copper is an industrial, industrial product. We need. But gold, nobody needs gold. Gold is not an industrial product or anything else. And if we see that gold is going like 25% in six and a half weeks, it is not normal because nobody got A real problem with gold. These are only a problem from option traders or anything else.

That they have to buy the market.

With future courses or anything else. And I love the stories like this. I'm a counter trader. Patrick is the same. He also love it to go against a trend. But we understand when the trend will go down. And now we have to wait. I think in one or two days we will see a very, very, very big reaction on gold. But before we have to wait for a little. Yeah, supply zone here. And then it give one shoot. And then we will go back to this price levels, to the fair prices back. I know everybody tell talk to me. You're crazy. What is your idea? Everybody is talk. Gold must go to 5,000. I think it doesn't grow in this place. Now we have to wait. And if you have a lot of gold in your portfolio or you have gold in your treasure or anything else. I think it is intelligent to make.

A hedge with a gold future of short.

I have done it because I have a little bit gold. And now I will wait what happened? I think this price is not fair. It is an unfair price. And at least in one or two years we will go deeper than 30, 40% with gold. And then you can buy it again with have to look for it.

Also it will be easy to look this chart of gold. And if you think it is a fair price level that we are growing up for over 270% in 10 years in gold. I think it is not a good and a fair price. And here you can see the same like in Bitcoin. We have these ranges with fair prices. But these are not fair prices. And nobody is able to buy a lot of gold now. Because the big players like levels like this or this, where they have time to buy gold. This was the last section they buy about a lot. And now we have to wait for a little shoot. And then we will go back to this level, to this level. And then we are back again to the fair prices. And now everybody can talk to me that I'm crazy. It's okay for me. But I think technical it is too much. And we will see in the next bearish time when the stock markets also will go down. You have to know if a stock market go down like this gold do.

This. But when the real beer marked is coming and this is this one.

Then the gold price will go like this. And this section nobody knows who is not trading or understanding the world of trading for over than 15 years. Because the last time we have a situation like this was Lehman Brothers. And after it it was everything was only strong by in the Corona time. It goes like this. And it was not a real beer marked. And I trust and I think the same like Fabio, we will have a good reaction in the next month. And then we have to decide where we see a reaction like this and again like a far reversal or where we got a real beer marked. Then it will go longer than one and a half year. And gold also will go down very, very deep. And we have to wait. I think it will come. And the story behind is nothing. We know now that we will get a real, real beer marked. And for bitcoin I think we will also go a little bit like gold. And we will also go very deep down. I can imagine that we see crosses in the near of 30,000, 35,000. It will be amazing. And a lot of people will cry very hard. But it needs time. It doesn't go with one move, it needs two moves. So first like this. Then we go up a little bit. Everybody think now we can buy bitcoin again, we can buy stocks again. And then we will lose a lot of money. And when everybody is crying and everything is fear, fear, fear. It's time to buy everything. This is my opinion about the markets now. And we will see this stations in the near, near, near future. Not in two, not in three years. I think in the next year at latest, we will see the first big move. This is everything I know from the markets.

Okay, good.

We have some questions. Questions for sure.

Okay.

What'S this? One second. But gold is always. There's a lot of people who think gold will keep going up many years, blah, blah, blah.

That's normal, guys. Everyone to everyone that review. But will also add some stuff about gold later.

Okay.

How do a question for you, Tom. How do you identify a high quality supply and demand zone using fixed volume profile or anchored volume profile? I don't think you use the fixed, the fixed range volume profile. I don't think you use it right. You use the daily and the weekly. Maybe.

Okay. I all the time use weekly profiles and daily profiles. Why? If I'm looking for long, long, long trades, I use at first interesting levels on the volume profiling. It's a combination for market and volume profile. It give me ideas for the players who dominate the markets now and then I make the point in the little time frames and I look who is playing now the markets. And if I see especially like here for example that the aggressive players are going crossing on the oversight and going up against deeper. I know. Oh, I don't share the screen.

Good, good.

Sorry for it. I will do it again.

Okay. The first thing I do all the time is looking for weekly profiles or for monthly profiles and give me a lot of ideas how comfortable are the players.

Putting the mark along like here and where are the reaction levels I like to create before that they will go and break it short. This is the first thing I think about. Then I put this zones and levels like here for example an S P500 into my smaller time frames. And then I look what happened when the market goes over those levels like here. And when we have new fair supply and demand zones under this price area and is able that it happens today. I will understand. Now it's time to break the whole trend from before and now. You have to look on the left side. Where was a starting point of the big volume like a range and after a trend. This is what we see here. And this is my first reaction level for the short. When I have a fundamental story behind. I take it for longer time frames and I need especially here monthly profile. Then I take here weekly profile. And for the timing setup I look into the daily profile. This is everything I do with long term positions. And this is the reason that I know watching for gold. For example, here I make a picture.

That I think now it is time that the mark is so strong long that everybody who is trading short or have to cover short positions is going out. And we have only to wait here now for this shoot. It's here and then a little place like this. Mostly of the time it go over and then we go down. And you can read it here very easy with the.

Daily profiles.

They will tell you every story.

Who is creating this profile now? Big players, small players. And when is the point to start counter trade. And this is everything I do. I combinate all the time the two time frames.

Yes.

It.

I did it again, guys. Sorry, I didn't. I didn't unmute my microphone. So as I was saying, it's really cool to see three different types of approaches. And I think this is the cool part about world class edge is that we have different approaches to do the same thing. And while Fabio is using institutional references and accumulations and distribution in key areas through the code report, Tom is using his multi decade market experience where he has seen all sorts of bear markets and bull markets and he has traded them and he knows them like it's his house. I personally like to use macroeconomics to understand the framework of why should the Big money go in a certain direction or not. So I'm gonna share the screen with you guys now and I'm also gonna share it with Tom and.

The guys. So they can also follow.

Should be this one. Yes.

Okay.

Now.

Regarding gold.

What I like to understand before analyzing the technical structure is understanding why and what are the fundamental drivers of gold. Okay.

Historically speaking, gold, technically speaking has no value. As also Tom was saying before, there's no industrial value to it. It's just what we think. And what people think is the value of gold. A little bit like Bitcoin, it doesn't have an intrinsic value per se. It's not used in the industry, maybe Bitcoin will. But they are seen as a store of value, right?

And as a store of value, they are very, very liked in institutional investors and portfolio for inflation hedging.

Okay. And in periods of uncertainty.

So when you see wars going on or when you see economic activity slowing down, those are periods where the market of gold is really, really bullish. And.

Regarding the inflation hedging nature of gold.

Its main competitor has always been, will always be until, you know, the American, the American government collapses.

U.S. treasury.

Bonds.

Specifically the yield of U.S. treasuries.

Because what you guys should know what U.S. treasury bonds are, right? Treasury bonds are basically a place where you can park your money indefinitely and earn a fixed interest rates. For example, a US bonds could earn, you can yield you 5% yield per year. And so that's a good, that's a good hedge against inflation. So typically if inflation is let's say 2%.

Let'S say this, let's say this is the inflation rate.

And the U.S. treasury's yields are 5%.

Then what we call the real yield.

Is 3%, right?

So there's always been historically a strong inverse correlation between year yield, real yield and the price of gold. Because they're both inflation hedging assets. So if yields, the real ones are high, typically.

Gold will perform less. And when real yields are low, that's where gold shoots up. Okay? So there is also a strong correlation between the price of gold and.

Interest rate monetary policies.

Because as you guys know, oops.

The yields of US Bonds are determined by expectation around inflation expectation on interest rates. And then there's the risk premium and the term premium, right? So if we plot on top of this chart, or actually let's do it the opposite way, if we go and take.

The five year yields, right, US05 yields.

And subtract to this the five years breakeven inflation rates.

We get this chart, which are the real yields, okay? Five year bonds yields minus expected inflation in five years.

And if we plot.

Gold on top.

You can see a pretty clear trend.

Where.

Let's have two line charts, right?

Let's put this line another color.

So this is the price of gold compared to the yields, to the real yields. And throughout history there have been so, so, so many instances where.

You can clearly see this inverse correlation happening. Okay? Also happened during COVID after Covid, when you had gold shooting up because real interest yields were going down. And at the same time, when real yields started to pick up slightly, that's when gold started retracing. And then.

Again a little bit bullishness here while the bearishness comes and boom, interest rate yields go super up. And that's when gold shoots down. And this is a very understandable mechanic of the markets. And if we look at what happened to yields, to real US Bond yields, they only kept failing throughout this whole time. And that's because inflation is going down.

It's not really going down. It's going, let's say sideways, it's staying flat.

But the bank is lowering interest rates, central bank, right? Fed lowers rates.

So this brings the total yields down. And since inflation is staying flat, but also we have employment.

Starting to suffer, that's the perfect scenario.

For gold to rise. This scenario, economically speaking, is also called stagflation.

And this is the classic scenario where gold is fucking roaring, okay? But also, as Tom said, we are likely going to reach a plateau. Okay? And I would like to share with you an analysis that I have made years ago where I've called a long trade on gold just based on interest rate monetary policies.

I think it's still here somewhere.

Yes.

This was before it happened, okay? This was before all of the, all of the market happened, all of the bull market happened. I said here, these are the phases of monetary policies. These are the cycles. Typically when the end of the hawkish cycles begins, that's when gold.

Literally starts pumping like crazy. Because we had a crazy cycle here. And if you go back in history, that's also where the previous crazy cycles happened, right? When there's, especially when there's a lot of money printing, when interest rates are dropping, that's the typical scenario, right? And that's exactly what happened. If we see what happened later, that's exactly what happened. Okay? So I personally would like to see.

Whether from the Federal Reserve or from the inflation rate perspective, this trend reversing. That's when I can know with a strong degree of confidence that the macros and the fundamental drivers of gold are in touch with the same idea I can have on gold with a short. Okay. Because gold is. It's really, really high now. It's really, really high. There's markets tend to correct at some point. Right. But if I want to go for the long term and not just the short term, I would wait, for example, that's just how I do it. I would wait for the fundamental reasons to catch up with it. Is that clear for all of you guys?

It's totally clear what you explained, Andrea. And I think everybody will be able to understand it.

Yes.

And I'm going to.

Andrea, I remember this moment really clearly because it's the moment that I went to buy gold, physical gold, you remember.

I asked you is the good moment to buy physical gold. Andrea told me, but buy data as you can. It's the perfect moment to buy. I think now is the perfect moment to sell physical gold.

There you go. And yeah. And we were probably around here by the way. We were at less than 2,000. It's crazy. And silver is the little brother of gold. Okay. And it's doing exactly the same thing for the exact same reasons. Okay. And we finally hit all time highs. We don't have the analysis here but we, we've seen two longs.

On silver based on the exact same idea.

Using the same principles with volume profile. Okay. And we unfortunately closed it a little bit early. Well, a lot early to be honest.

But it's. Let's say, let's say the same principle. Now regarding the stock market also here.

Move on to. Let's open clean charts.

What are the drivers here?

Go to the stock market, US 500 or SPX.

First question, what are the macro drivers?

Well, these are stocks, right? So the stocks are made of companies. So company earnings. Companies or let's say it better expected companies earnings.

This is a risk on asset. So risk appetite.

Is a big driver.

And what creates risk appetite, for example, is liquidity in the financial system, which is something you can calculate with how the federal reserves using their balance sheets. So systemic liquidity, let's say financial liquidity, okay. That are bank reserves basically.

And it will take some time to truly understand what bank reserves are. But after 2008 they basically need to keep a lot of money safe. In case people go to the ATM and try to withdraw money. They have to keep a lot of reserves. And if they have a lot of reserves, they can dedicate some of their allocation to stocks, for example, and there's a bigger appetite to Risk and.

Overall.

Macroeconomic trend.

So for all of these things. Oh, yeah, sorry. And very important.

Fiscal policies.

If the government is printing a lot of money and injecting a lot of money into the economy as they are, if they print new money, that money they spend goes to people. People go and buy shit, that money goes to the companies.

Okay.

And the S and P goes up super easy. Okay? So as, as long as the government is.

Facilitating.

A strong economy by printing money, typically we see stock markets going up. But also this has a cap because as also Fabio was saying, we are reaching a cap on all sorts of indication. One of them is the Warren Buffett indicator, which is something very easy, actually. That's comparing. It's a valuation model that it's basically comparing the prices of the stock market against the gdp. And as of now, we're in the higher standard deviation and the stock market is 200% the GDP. Another one we can take is the Shiller PE ratio.

Which is the price earning ratio. Price. Stock price to earnings ratio. And we can clearly see we are at levels that we did not see since the dot com bubble. Okay, so all of these data is telling us something. Is it telling us that the stock market will crash tomorrow? No, but it's telling us that if the market starts crashing, there can be a very strong response to the short side from market makers, from option traders, from all types of investors that will start to panic because there's a lot of long exposure. And, and you can check it with something called the Knime index.

Sorry, maybe I didn't write it correctly.

Yeah. This is tracking the exposure to the American stock market by asset manager globally.

And we can see that their exposure is now at 84%. It reached a peak of 98%. They are 98% exposed to the American stock market. So all of these.

Are some indications.

That makes us understand that whenever Trump tweets.

These reactions are normal because there is a huge exposure. And because as he tweets, you see what going up the vix. And the VIX is not just. It's not really a fear index. A lot of people call it the fear index. It's not. The VIX is a number calculated on the implied volatility.

Implied by options traders. So as of now, the implied volatility, which is what the market are technically protecting or hedging themselves from, is 23%. So they are covering themselves for a 23% decline in the S and P. So they expect at least a 23%.

Bear market and something that is seriously Worrying me, by the way, if you make it reversed and you plot the S&P 500 on top.

Is that the stock market is now kind of going up, but the VIX is going down.

The market is starting to pick back up. But the options traders, man, they are super scared. And this means there's a lot of investors that are scared that this will turn into a bear market. And if a new breakout downwards will happen in the stock market, that can be a squeeze, as we say, a gamma squeeze, which can be very problematic and create flash crashes and a bunch of other stuff because now 60% of the volume of the stock market is in zero DTE options. So it can be, it can get very, very crazy daily action. So always be careful with the risk management with these super long markets. It's the same thing that Tom was saying with, with gold also there, the exposure option is really, really big. Okay? So always be careful around this.

But as of now, the fundamental bias of S&P 500 is technically long. The macroeconomics are long, there's no doubt, but macroeconomics and finance are two different worlds. The market has their own life. The market will do sometimes crazy stuff. They will be irrational. They will not follow the macroeconomics. They are. Markets are just money and people with big money placing big bets. And sometimes they go good, sometimes they go wrong. So always be careful around this. I was also having, in general, for the forex market, just two very easy setups that I wanted to share with you. The first one is because there's so much uncertainty around the stock market, macroeconomics allows you. And having a global idea of diversifying your trades in a swing trading approach is that if there's not a lot of edge in a market, you can move on to the next market. Okay, you don't need to trade stocks. There's gold. There's a lot of different markets. And for example, there is Forex, which for me, as a macro trader is one of the easiest ones to trade because it's very, very liquid. The drivers are really, really simple expected.

Yields again of bonds.

Or the spread between them. Okay, so if, for example, we have euro, right? Or here we have GBP.

And USD.

Something very easy that you can do to understand. Okay, maybe these bonds are yielding 5%, these bonds are yielding 1%. It's just an example. If I am an institutional investor, will I prefer to keep GBPs or USDs in a savings account or in a bond? Well, clearly these, because they have a better yield than USDs.

So this spread between Bonds of nations creates trends. The expected spread creates trends in the Forex market. And as of now, since the main driver, as we said of bonds is inflation, if the inflation in the GBP is going up in the UK and in the USD is flat slash going down, this will bring strength to the GBP because the Fed, the UK central bank will hike rates and the bond yields will go up. In US we have central bank clearly going down and inflation pretty stable and actually the employment, unemployment going up and that's creating a bearish pressure on the Federal Reserve. So the trend, macroeconomically speaking is really, really clear for me on gbpusd. So I take the GBPUSD and then we use the same models that people who are in our, in the mentorship of Tom and Patrick knows very well. You look at where the money's going, you look at the P, you maybe draw a volume profile of it and when you have a bias, look where the market reacts.

In the lower. We call it business zone. People who are in our mentorship know this very well.

So the first idea for example for me and we open it in the Italian community was to take this trade for example. Okay, the next idea can be upwards of here. But we have to be careful, as Tom was saying before, what happens here? How are the traders behaving when market goes up outside of this comfortable area to make business at? So this is my idea for, for gbpusd and if you have any other question, guys, let's keep another few moments for the Q A and.

If you have any question for me, for Fabio or for Tom and Patrick. Yes, this session will be recorded and you can have it here. By the way, guys, I see some people asking about the.

About the models. You can learn these models inside of the trading floor that we basically are running where Tom, Serge and Patrick are basically trading the markets daily. And you can just go on our website worthlessedge.com to join.

Yes, the live will be posted.

Where do you see the real estate market on the next year? I'm not really a big follower of the real estate market. I don't know what you think. Tom.

What do you think about the real estate market, housing market? We can't hear you.

The microphone is off.

The real estate we will see. I have no ideas about. I don't like real estate, but I think the prices will go down because.

Which country you are interested of this question?

That's the real question.

How about Nasdaq? Nasdaq is the same direction of the US 500. Typically.

You have to know Everything is supply and demand. Everything is where the fair prices and the enterprises in Germany, for example. I see a lot of house prices are very high but there is nobody who will pay it. And now the prices will go down and down and down. Nobody talks about. But not a lot of people are able to pay it. And also. Yeah. It is not interesting to buy buildings now.

Yeah.

And Dubai is another word here. If you buy a very comfortable things in Dubai, I think the prices will be stable. But I have no idea about. I'm not a big builder. No ideas. I don't. I understand. We like.

We like more liquid stuff. We are. We are traders.

We like it very easy.

Yeah.

Please reduce the fee of your courses.

It's too much.

It's not too much guys. It's. It's. I think it's a really fair. Fair value. Fair price as we say. Of course if you're from a low income country it can be very different. But it's a professional trading floor for six months. So it's a completely fair price. In my opinion it's actually a bargain.

They ask for some setups from Patrick. I don't know if Patrick has some setups on the swing trading site.

What do you think of. What do you think about U.S. oil?

Sorry guys, I prepared nothing because I'm.

On holidays in Cyprus and make a visit at Tom.

So I have nothing prepared for you.

Yeah. Also you're not a position trader. You're more of an introduction.

Yeah, that's the next point. Yeah.

Yeah.

Okay. How big of a correction you expect? It depends guys. But also Tom explained you some of the potential levels.

Okay.

Should explain what.

How deep do we think the markets will go?

Basically I have no idea. Nobody knows. But I can see it when the market is going down. Whereas the real and fair prices and what happened when the prices go deeper are higher. And then I will create my ideas day by day, week by week. But I. I can imagine that we will go deeper than 60% in the Max 7. Then we will come back to a little fairer prices. And after it we have to look what happened the market go up again or we will get into a real bear market. And then I think we will go.

Down especially in S P500 for over than 50%.

I know it is hard, but it is realistic. Because we don't get a real beer market after 2008. Corona was not a real beer market because the time was too small. Nobody of the big option traders got a real problem. The small ones. Yes, I know they killed Everything but from the real big traders, nobody got a real problem. And I think when a real problem will come, we will see a real bear marked and it have to come in the next year. And I think it will come at least next year.

Okay.

It will start at least in the next year. And then we have to look for the second wave and when the second wave will start. Like currently in Bitcoin in the small time frame it started between one 115,000 and the same can happen in S P and anything else.

Yeah.

Okay, then I think.

We are good. On what days of the week you have a webinar in World Class Edge. And what do you teach? What do we teach in World Class Edge? Tom, I'll let you explain it.

Yes, we teach you a lot of at first. We will teach you the opportunity to understand the markets from up to down. And we give you. We have everything inside what we need to trade like we do it in the last 15 years. I prepared all the stuff together with my colleague Serge. He's a big brain. He worked at the Wall street for over a year and learned a lot of stuff. We shake it together with my stuff and we build very easy combinations to trade for you. Also we put inside the trader DNA methodic that you will understand very quick and fast. What kind of trading stuff is interesting for you and not for everybody. We don't give you a copy and paste system. No, we give your opportunity to find your own system and trust in me. Every good trader built his system own way to trade with the same, with the same figures and with the same structures. But everybody have to use his own way. And we help you to become your own way. And then you will become a successful trader and this is the only way to do it. And I understand your glass. Not only my glass. I understand your glass. What do you need? And this is a big difference to normal coaches because I'm very deep and working with your subconscious. And anything else?

Yeah, definitely. Also the trader DNA method that you've built where you can understand what the type of trading works for you. I think it's probably one of the.

Most unique things at first anyone else doing at first.

We will give you a lot of stuff, a lot of ideas, we have a lot of interesting strategies and then we will reduce it and you will find your own strategy and you will use only your own strategy and you will earn money with it because it is the real way. It isn't important to understand everything from the market. You have to understand your way and we will find it together. It's easy.

Nice. Okay, guys, then I think for today, we are pretty much done. I'll see you guys inside of the wordless Edge community, if you can. Guys are there, and otherwise we'll see each other here probably next month. We're gonna do this again.

Sorry. And thank you, Fabio, for staying here with us tonight. Thank you, Tom. Thank you, Patrick. And guys, next month, trade safe.

And thanks a lot.

Have a nice time. Goodbye.

Thank you, Andrea.

Thank you, Fabio.

Thank you, Patrick.

Goodbye together.

Thank you, Tom and Patrick. And thank you for everyone attending the webinar. See you next month.

See you.

See you.