This SIMPLE ICT Futures Trading Strategy Made Her Over $100,000 - Tanja Trades (Copy This)

Today we have a very special guest all the way from New York.

One of the best and the best ICT live streamer on YouTube. It's the one and only Tanya Trade.

You might get married to your bias there and continue trying to short as it's retracing and then you get stopped down. Now you're mad, now you're flipping long here. That's exactly what blows up accounts and I've been there and done that. If you're trading that then most likely you're going to be the liquidity. Most likely you will get manipulated out. But there's, there are different rules for that. So I like to wait for confirmation. And this is again this is a little bit more advanced. I don't really love doing that because this part is where you're really building discipline. That is where like champions are born. I would say warriors are forged in that time. I want to always get involved in the distribution aspect and this is the easiest part to trade because with the loss being for such a small amount of time you already know you're on side when something like that happens. That's how you know you're in a high probability environment actually is.

Welcome everyone.

Back to Chart Fanatics, the go to channel for all the very best strategy.

Breakdowns with the best traders in the world.

Talking of which, today we have a very special guest all the way from New York.

The one of the best and the best ICT live streamer on YouTube trades live almost every single day or every day? Every day.

Pretty much every day.

Every single day. And you've already seen her. It's the one and only Tanya Trades. Thank you for being here.

Thank you for having me.

It's my absolute pleasure. I know we got to do a podcast. How long ago was it? I think it's like almost a year maybe.

I think it was in August, now it's April. So almost a year.

Almost a year. But it's incredible podcast. But we got to speak about your journey. We were trying to talk about concepts but that's a bit hard to do right on a podcast. So I'm very, very much looking forward today to go through strategies and sort of concepts. But where's best to begin, do you think?

I think today what I really want to tackle is going over the high probability trading days and the low probability trading days and how to avoid the low probability days and save your capital. And I think where we should start off with is talking about how well the market pretty much moves in accumulation, manipulation and distribution. So if we can go Ahead and I'll draw that out.

So it's like AMD.

Accumulation manipulation distribution. So the first phase is pretty much accumulating.

Prices just moving sideways and then you typically get some sort of manipulation to the downside and then after that distribution to a point of interest. So I want to always get involved in the distribution aspect. Right. And this is the easiest part to trade because typically price is just going towards the draw on liquidity which we'll get into later what that looks like. And this is the part that I want to avoid because range bound action is really hard to trade and it'll have you scratching your head, it'll have you annoyed and just questioning your life because it just goes back and forth and back and forth and it's just. It'll hit your stop loss and then go back in one direction. It doesn't even typically look like that looks like like this. Right. Making another high and then a lower low and then another higher high and such like that. Yeah that's a seek and destroy profile. So the point is how can we recognize days like this to avoid them or how can we recognize days like this? So we can really take advantage of that and use that to really upscale our P and L Definitely.

So like focusing as you said like ranges will 9 times out of 10 actually look like this.

So like what days are accumulation days or low probability days most likely to be part of. It's typically a day where there's no red folder news events.

Call you. Yes.

Like if it's just yellow folder or there's just nothing or even worse if you're trading like a bank holiday like recently the banks are not trading like why are you trading most of the time is not going to be a good idea. Or a day after holiday and there's no news and price is just accumulating for the next manipulation basically. And so if you're, if you're trading that then you more most likely you're going to be the liquidity most likely you will get manipulated out. That being said we'll get into like there are days like you can take a trade here and there's different ways of approaching that but there are different rules for that. So number two I would say it's like a day before.

Day before a large high impact news event such as.

FOMC nfp.

Yeah, exactly.

Like a super high impact event which is like day before cpi. I don't really love trading day before nfp. Some people like the session like the day before FOMC is also not really that great. Too much sometimes I'll go, I'll trade that, but I'll trade smaller size day before CPI to typically don't even love. I don't even look at the charts a lot of times.

Yeah, but why? Because like price is accumulating before it's generating liquidity. And then the next day you'll see during the 8:30 news, like typically it's, it's something like this and then just like a huge wick to the downside that knocks all these people out before the actual move. So I want to be part of this move here, not any of this. And then getting what knocked out there, of course. So that's like two simple ways just looking at the economic.

Calendar, right? Pretty simple.

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Another thing to recognize. We can, we can wipe that off.

Yeah. Another possible day is we just had. It's a day after a large expansion day. Like we just priced the day before, just kept going, just dropping lower and lower and lower. And then now we just hit this monthly target where like a monthly liquidity pool, maybe it was a monthly fair value gap or even a weekly fair value gap. And hey, what happens after distribution? Typically we go back to accumulation. And now the price price is just doing price discovery.

Right.

So day after a lot really large move. I tend to just watch price action and kind of avoid. You can reprice, maybe sometimes you can reprice to the midpoint of this like 50% of that leg up. If there's a good structural standpoint of that where you see a bullish shift back up. But a lot of times we'll just accumulate. Price will just move between the two. So I'm always cautious about that. I'll still show up to the charts, but I'm cautious of that fact that maybe, hey, yesterday was this huge range day and we just hit this really large liquidity pool. Like after a huge distribution, we could have accumulation again. And the point is just to wait for the next setup not to mess around and find out like I like to talk about on my stream a lot. So yeah that's.

But it's true because what you're identifying is the character characteristics, the reoccurring themes of when the market is not really optimum as you said like the low probable days.

Yeah.

And you can see that if you go to the no red folder days or the bank holidays. Like just recently when we were recording this just on Monday we had a bank holiday and the market was just choppy, just sideways and then the next day the volatility started to pick up again. Right. And the same with the day before news you see the exact same thing. Especially on like an FOMC day where it's all the way at the end of the day.

Yes.

Like during that day you're just going to see range and choppiness. Yeah. And same with like as you said, a large movement after that you might get you know, a day, maybe even a follow through the 2, 3 days of large movements. But once it's slowed down and as you say. Yeah that's a really, actually a really big key component, higher time frame, you know, so fair value gap or order block wherever it may be or liquidity pool. That's a really good point because this might be three days worth of price or like expansion but once it's been hit you do start to recognize price, it might go up but it will just stay within this sort of range. And as you say what does the accumulation mean? It's building that liquidity, it's building those orders and then that's where we then obviously head over to the next one.

Right? Yeah. So yeah, so what we talked about when it's hitting that like higher like price just this actually happened during the Trump tariff. Like imagine when we were put instilling tariffs, we're just huge down days and this, this was really easy to trade because I was respecting these was making lower highs and lower lows. And this was a distribution period of price action. Right. And then we actually hit this monthly feg and even a quarterly, quarterly like order block level like the midpoint of it.

And then so like let's say this happened and then now we have this huge push up from this. This might be hard to trade now because now you have jagged ends on both sides and that's. I don't really love when price action there's. I don't really love when price action has jagged ends on both the upside and the downside. And now you're sort of like in the middle of the range. Let's say this is a four hour fair value gap. Now we came back into it 50% which I said earlier, maybe I'd aim for that after we hit this liquidity pool on the monthly. Right.

And now this is back to a four hour.

In around 50 or premium of this range. Now what like now and now we have a bullish one down here. It's like yeah, we could retrace down to this one and then we can like this is where accumulation is likely to actually happen. We can come down into this one and people might be now going for this high like and I'll redraw that. We might go down into here and then people might be targeting this high. But the thing that you have to pay attention to is right now we might actually be in an accumulation mode. We might be generating liquidity. That means that we might not reach this high. We actually might make a lower high and even just make a higher low as well. And that's, that's the tricky aspect. Now we're generating liquidity. We might pause between 50, 50% of this wick on this high and a lot of times they'll take out another low and then take out that high and then just, you know, this is a, this is a very difficult environment. It is tradable but it's very difficult. And that's my point is you have to look at if there's two points of interest here with prices just bouncing between a four hour fair value gap and a, like an hourly or another four hour one on this side and you don't really know hey where price is going to. Then you, it's best to stay out and just wait for more, wait for that displacement to the upside. Right. So I want an energetic shift to typically above a swing high.

This is where traders like waste trades.

Yeah.

You know, waste trades in those conditions and by the time like the, the good displacement and the good trade comes along, their mental capital is gone and yeah. And then they don't execute on that and that normally just revolves to more and more and more bad habits.

Yeah, exactly. So I'm paying attention to if we're, especially if we, a lot of times we'll reprice on top of this fair value gap and reject right there. And yeah, that might form a nice like lower time frame level, like short. But I'm very cognizant. I'm not going to just aim for this low. This is where people end up holding their trades too long and then they end up getting stopped out because Price is not going to be moving like that anymore. So if you, if you're noticing this one hour or four hour FPG here, this is a good spot to take some profit. And then what I, that's typically what I do. I'll take a partial profit and then I put my stop loss somewhere here. Break even and I'll get stopped out on the rest and that break even. That's fine. In those cases I'm not holding, holding for a home run.

Yeah.

It's understanding. Okay. Yeah. I'm going to take partials. Maybe I'll even be more.

Aggressive with taking partial. I typically always like to leave some percent of my position on because just in case it does go for that low, I want to keep those runners running. And those are the cases that you know, if you, you might get frustrated if you're not taking that partial there.

Yeah.

And you might, you might get married to your bias there and continue trying to short as it's retracing and then you get stopped out. Now you're mad, now you're flipping long here. That's exactly what blows up accounts. And I've been there and done that. You know, that's what if you have to understand this, like if we might just be bouncing between those PD arrays which are premium discount arrays. So price in a premium when it retraced to here. Now this is a discount of this leg here. Yes. So if price is just bouncing and it doesn't really have a direction because of those jagged highs are making it, it's making it harder. It's better to just let it generate that. So now like, you know, if we stayed out of this and you know, price retraced here now, now it might be generating these equal highs that later on will get part of, you know, we'll get part of the move there.

Yeah.

But it's, it's really hard to control yourself in these situations. And I think that's where traders go wrong. They, they marry their biases and they sort of.

Because it's easy in this environment to, if you just go through a couple time frames have very conflicting biases. Like in one time frame you look for bullish the next minute. Exactly thinking bearish.

That's a great point. So like that's, that's where it is also super important to look at. If, if the time frames are conflicting.

Yeah, that's, that's probably the hardest. It's like okay, the, over here. Okay, the four hour looks actually this is the report. This leg that actually looks kind of bullish here. Yeah. But here on the daily we're still bearish.

Yeah.

Now we're retracing this hourly. That's bullish. And it, if you, if it comes down to that, you don't have a clear bias, you don't have a clear drawn liquidity, then that's the best time to kind of just set aside and wait or wait until you are more confident that that's. If you don't know where price is going to you, you're, you're done. Yeah, that's like one of the first things on the checklist. I'll go over later. So jagged ends on both sides also that we talked about these, this jagged end, I really prefer it. We'll talk about those equal highs and lows and other liquidity areas.

But yeah, well that's what there is. Yeah. So yeah. So it's hard to read structure on the four hour and the hourly chart like here that, that's difficult and that that means that you might be part of accumulation.

Yeah.

Especially what I look at, lack of displacements right.

Over swing highs and lows. So typically what you're going to get here, price is probably going to wick like below this low into this feg and then wick above. These are all wicks and we're not getting any displacements through. Meanwhile I want to get a nice push through with a displacement. Meaning there's going to be feg on the hourly or something above this high.

That's how I'm going to figure that out. Especially if we now if we turned over this four hour bearish fair value gap to the upside and broke a swing high. That's really indicating to me now we're bullish. And this is where I would want to think. Okay, yeah. Now I'm really looking for long. So I have a better point of interest here, up here to go for.

Yeah.

So if there's a lack of displacements there, we're not going above those highs. We're just wicking and returning back into the range. Especially you can easily see this on the four hour, the hourly chart if it literally look like barcode action. So there's. Yeah. So I'd, I'd rather just wait. And it's hard because like that's a four hour chart. You're waiting on an hourly chart. You're waiting on. You have to wait a day or something typically. Or just wait until the next high impact news day, which is probably going to be later in the week. You know, it's. Or another, another random headline and as.

I say, patience pays, you know. Yeah, patience pays. And you're trying to get involved when it is choppy. And I get it because like as a trader you assume, it was easy to assume you need to trade every day regardless of whatever you need to trade every day. But a lot of the time that's what leads to you not having positive P and L, which is obviously then the opposite of wanting to be a trader. And the result that you're trying to get.

Yeah, yeah, manipulate. The thing is you can trade accumulation, but especially if you're a beginner to intermediate, it is not recommended. There are different ways. Then you have to go on a smaller time frame and that's again, that's harder. It's probably going to stop you out like once and then you'll have to try again and then maybe that second trade will work. But after that I'm like, all right, if you, if I'm wrong twice, sometimes I'll, I'll anticipate that it's going to be a harder day. But I still have an idea on the draw on liquidity. I'm still going to trade that and I'm probably going to still depending on the day. If it's a day before a high impact news day, I'll size down.

Okay.

But I'm still going to take the trade and then I give myself two losses during that session. And if I'm wrong, then that means I either don't have a good grip on the draw and liquidity and I don't have a good read on the market, which is fine, come back the next day. Or number two is like we're in a seek and destroy environment. Which is the harder one of those environments where price is just making a, taking out a high and then taking out that low and then maybe generating another something like this and then low and then high. That's a seek and destroy environment. Right. We're taking out highs and then lows and that's just most. The easiest way to figure this out actually is seeing that price is most of the time like remaining in the middle of the range.

Yes.

You know, we're actually not having so any kind of direction.

So that's seek and destroy or fafo.

People that watch my stream know what we're talking about here.

The inside joke. That's it.

But yeah, so that's the harder part of that environment. Yeah, that's the time where, you know, I'll take two losses and be like, all right, there's no direction done yet. Leaving the Session. If I had a draw, if I thought maybe this, the drawn liquidity, for example, like here actually is great. If I thought that maybe the drawn liquidity is up here. And I saw, okay, we took out this low here and now we had a market structure shift to the upside.

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So yeah, this is actually a great example of maybe this is a time where maybe I would get take a loss because this is maybe London Low and we took out this liquidity down here. And here we broke this short term high and I would maybe try to enter here, stop below this low to go for this buy side liquidity up here, this high in here. And guess what? I just got stopped out like. And then price just surged up to, to that target. And that's frustrating. That's just the kind of environment you're in and that's just harder. And that's okay.

You have to accept that.

You have to accept that sometimes you'll miss the trade. Some like. And again that's why it's like more for, for more advanced.

Well, this is why I loved what you said. Yeah. So in terms of like being able to identify what's best for beginners, where to start from, what's best for them, the sort of more intermediate then also who's, who's best in terms of like advanced conditions.

Exactly, exactly.

Because you don't really hear of that too often to be fair. You know, people, people talk about maybe advanced techniques when it comes to say risk and sizing and risk management, but you don't really hear in terms of conditions.

Yeah, exactly. And you just want you. Yeah, exactly. This is the hardest, the hardest of the conditions. Then there's manipulation where some people like to get involved. There I'm not, I, I don't really get involved. So for just taking out this low, some people would get involved and just buy there before if they're anticipating a move up higher and maybe they'll put a stop on this higher time frame. Low down here I, I like to wait for confirmation. And this is again, this is a little bit more advanced. This is where people call them like those turtle soups entries.

Colloquially in the ICT community. Because this is, you know, it's looking like a breakdown. I think I just watched your podcast for Linda. I love. Yeah, like a little. Yeah, that's, that's her term for sure. And you know, this might be, look, this is a false breakdown essentially. But people are, if you're bullish, you're buying for the upside and this is the manipulation. Right.

I don't really love doing that because you know, sometimes it is a breakdown and I'd rather wait for the confirmation for the distribution is again the easiest part because you already, especially if you recognize this jagged end down here as manipulation, then you know you have a clear direction to go for up here. So that's what we'll go to next. Distribution.

Definitely. Yeah.

Yeah. So finally we're going to go into the distribution days. So the high probability days are mostly going to be red Folder events folder event days.

And like I've talked about this on my stream like CPI is my favorite day the after I'm not trading the actual release of cpi, I'm trading the New York session afterwards. So that's one of my favorite days to trade cpi. NFP is not bad to trade either but like even PPI GDP.

Nfp I'll trade honestly again but these are less trend like days so it's not the easiest.

What else do you have? You have like after fomc. I'll trade that.

Yeah, yeah definitely.

I'll trade the post the. The aftermath of it.

It's actually really good. It's clean at times, isn't it? Yeah the CPI is your favorite.

Yeah I think I've mentioned this during the podcast and like I mean if we'll see you could just go to my, you can literally just go to my channel and you type in like cpi. I'm like most of them are winners. Like you know it's just like because that's my favorite day those are the days where I'll go for larger wins because we're in distribution mode and price is following those respecting I can move that stop here and then it's making a lower lower and lower high and and I can go for that huge win where my runners really make me a ton of money. Like I've made 200 points, 100 plus points several times doing that.

Incredible.

And those are fun right? Then we bring out the money gun on the stream have some fun a little bit but that's the point is that these are the distribution days are.

Easier to trade bigger winners.

We say there's more confirmation behind the distributions segment of it because you've already had the accumulation, you've already had the manipulation.

Exactly. Yeah there's way more confirmation because you see the manipulation and if you have a target in mind and it's easier. So how. How are we going to figure that out? And, and the easy way to find the drawn liquidity on these days is that price is jagged on one end. Let's say you know this is a daily fair value gap or and took out previous day high.

And now we're having a 15 minute time frame shift here or even like a 5 minute 1 minute depending on what kind of trader you are. But we have a 15 minute shift here and then there's a retracement into a 15 minute fair value gap and the point is here we already had that shift and downwards down here maybe.

There'S a four hour internal liquidity four hour in a discount.

Which we're going to go for next because we actually this leg back down. We never actually retraced to equilibrium of the range. And this I really like as a potential liquidity pool. Even if it does. If this previous swing low did actually reach into it but didn't completely fill it. So we can draw that like this.

But we took out this high into that fair value gap. A lot of times I am actually looking for this.

Ugly. Okay. A lot of times I'm actually looking for. This is a drawn liquidity. This is a short term low with more liquidity beneath it because we didn't actually completely reprice this here. So then I'm looking for price to come all the way back down here and I'm entering up here and like that's an amazing RR situation.

And it'll get you like 200 points, you know, on the, on the NASDAQ, which is fun. It's fun.

It just simply is fun. Even when you're trading for like five years like me, it simply is fun. Especially when I'm watching.

Can't be that feeling, you know.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean it's just. Yeah. At the point, at that point though, it's not, it's not euphoria anymore. It is more of like you did a great job. Yeah.

Like, because at that point you'd wait.

Yeah, exactly.

Waiting through this, been patient and you executed properly.

And plus, you know, at the end of the day most people, they don't, they're not profitable in the market. So if you're able to be profitable, that feels good. Especially as you said after five years. You know, at the end of the day, if you're able to consistently be able to hit these sort of trades.

Yeah.

And even if they're not, every day you're hitting those home runs, if you. Or those base hits. So I think they say that you're hitting those bases. Bases and then you find the, you know, get your distribution done, you get your home run. Of course it's going to feel good, you know.

Yeah, exactly, exactly. Especially if you've like wait.

Yeah. You waited live streaming as well. You got a whole audience to watch.

I know, I know. That's where part of it is. Yeah.

And that's.

It's fun. It's part of the fun. Of course. But yeah, that, that, that kind of. I'm looking for that in liquidity oftentimes especially like if we have this imbalance and we made a one short term low here, but we didn't completely reprice this and, and everything's looking good on the lower time frame. Right. This is how this looks like on the four hour, the daily. But if you go to the 15 minute and you kind of like zoom into this area here.

Yeah.

And that's typically where you're going to see the accumulation mostly which is like oh, day before CPI you're seeing this and then during that 8:30 spike that's happening and then we kind of retrace and then, and then we're dropping and then you get this clean continuation.

And yeah, that's, that's, that's basically how that goes.

Because the key points here is that this, you're looking for this amd Right, you're looking for the. Yeah, this. Yeah, but it's understanding the context, right? Yeah, you have your daily, the manipulation will hopefully take us into here. You've also taken out obviously a pre prior high, might be a daily high, might just be an external liquidity and then you're looking for this rather than a lot of people make the mistake of like this is a great concept, let me go look for it. And they're looking for it here.

Exactly. Yeah, exactly. They're looking for it here and they're kind of a lot, many times they're not realizing, okay, we just dipped down into here and we have this daily tap that we have this daily buy side. Liquidity hasn't been tapped yet and yeah, you might get wrecked there.

Exactly. It's the positioning alongside of obviously, you know, keeping track of which part of the market we're in and we have to be going for the distribution. But it's understanding that this pattern, if you will, this concept will only play out. Well, not only play out but the best times for it to play out. And where you want to be interested is in these high time frame areas after liquidity has been taken or displacement's taken place so that you can then look to capitalize on that because again people, well, each day, let's say this is like three, four days worth of price action to get to these highs. Each day that we're looking for it, each day that we're looking for it versus like if you save yourself as you set out from the very beginning of the the episode for the high probable days, that's where you're going to have a much better time, you know, much better performance hopefully overall and it'll feel better. As we talked about just now, like that's when it'll feel good. Versus the problem is if you do this like each day you take a loss, loss, loss, loss.

Even if you end up taking the.

Win, you won't feel good because you're probably just covering the loss. Exactly. And it feels like a waste of time, right?

Yeah, exactly, exactly. So it's this, this part is where you're really building discipline.

Yeah.

Like that is where like champions are born. I would say.

That's a great way to say you're forging.

Yeah. Warriors are forged in that time. Yeah.

Okay, amazing. So we go over the pros and cons now.

Yeah.

And just to. Yeah. Make sure everyone's clear, cons wise. We don't mean it's like a bad thing. It's normally just like a hurdle or something to be aware of when it comes to implementing this style of trading or this strategy. Do you want me to cover the con side?

Yeah, yeah, sure.

Like, pros, my very poor handwriting in comparison.

Okay, so the pros. It gives you an easy, like checklist to check each morning. And we'll go over that checklist and give that to the audience as well. It's pretty simple. And it's an actual just logical thing to follow in the mornings to say, hey, are we potentially in a high resistance environment where it's a lower probability day or is it potentially going to be a nice clean move? Okay, so that's one. Yeah. So that's pros checklists, like that checklist in the morning. A con is, you know, we talked about sometimes price actually like doesn't manipulate and it'll continue running without you. And you might feel FOMO like. Yeah, it just continues without the manipulation. Continues that and without even retracing or anything. And then controlling FOMO is difficult. Staying disciplined. Yeah, disciplined, I would say.

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Now let's get back to the episode.

Another pro is like you can anticipate a difficult day before it even happens. Like it happened on my stream this week has been a little bit difficult because you have like a random headline and then it takes out my buy side liquidity target. And I'm like, oh well I wanted like this is basically what happened this week during my stream. Like, okay, this is the buy side, buy side liquidity that I think we're going towards. I would prefer it if we, you know, take out this low first and then take out that buy side.

Yeah.

And price actually what ended up happening was we just went straight. We, we went down a tiny bit during 9:30 and then there was like a 9:37am random headline that just popped and queue up like 146 points. And I was like, okay, well you know that's, that's scratched, you know, so that's, that ties to like fomo. You know, you have to control that. So I think that's a con is like FOMO is potential thing that you have to definitely control your emotions for.

But other than that, you can anticipate a difficult day, a barcode day.

Yeah, yeah. It's a low probable day.

You know, low probable day. And same thing you can. And you can anticipate potential banger day.

Is that what we took on a really good day? Yeah.

Where you have like large amount of points.

Yeah. High volatility points.

Yeah. Captured. Yeah.

And just for the con side, it might not present an entry. Right.

Yeah, that's exactly, that's that. Yeah. Sometimes no entry, especially if you're waiting on a retracement and you're a retracement trader like I am. Sometimes that happens. It barely retraces. And it just goes straight for your target and you just have to accept that and wait for the next setup. And that kind of sucks. But you know that that's just gonna happen. That if you have a long trading career, like I always think about in the, in the higher time frame of things.

Yeah.

There's going to be so many days where I take a trade and it stops me out, break even. Then it flies to my target or there's a trade and I don't get an entry and then it flies to my target. That actually happened the other day. I just, I missed a limit fill by like maybe five points or so and it, it shot up. But like, what can I do? That's not my process to wait for that retracement. Because when it does come to that limit fill and it wicks it and I get that sniper entry. That's delicious. Nothing beats that.

Yeah.

Nothing beats that feeling. Yeah. But. Yeah, so on those days you get a large amount of points captured and you feel more confident holding then because you've done all this work of noting these potential days that could happen. Con. I don't know. Miss a move.

Yeah.

Another. Yeah. Yeah, sometimes you'll have. Yeah, you'll miss a move. No entry. Yeah. Trending day, no fomo. And yeah, sometimes you'll, sometimes you'll, you'll be wrong. You know, that's not 100 win rate.

You know, Exactly.

You have to make sure that, you know, two stops and you're done for the day. Because then some. There was one day actually that CPI, you know, I'm not 100% rate. Win rate for my CPI, of course.

Yeah.

You know, but it's pretty good. It's like probably like 70 to 80%. And there was like one recent one where you know, it was a high resistance run during the morning and then after 11, it started really distributing. And yeah, it's nothing's 100% win rate, of course, definitely. But yeah, that's why I say like two losses to have it and you're. And you're done because you just gotta accept it. Otherwise you can really start free for. Yeah, yeah, you're done.

It can be the case where you know, the accumulation, you're expecting it to manipulate and then obviously distribute, but it just stays in that accumulation phase. And if you get kind of attached to like it needs to manipulate, it needs to distribute and start, you know, so sometimes it's like it's not ready yet and you just have to be.

Patient or just a second manipulation. Like sometimes that'll happen.

Definitely.

And you know, price doesn't always move exactly the same way. The point, the point is finding a potential process and just follow that through and let the probabilities play in your favor so that your wins, that's the point is like your large amount of wins, like points captures totally makes up for any little paper cuts that you might have taken during accumulation area because you're not going to always predict it perfectly, you know, Definitely. So yeah, so we talked about earlier that the checklist. So let's go ahead.

Okay, Checklist. So number one is checking the economic calendar. Yes, Stephanie.

News events.

You're surprised how many people don't.

I'm telling you, when I was a newbie I did not realize what FOMC was like. I was like, what is everyone talking about?

Why is the market moving?

Yeah, exactly. No, seriously, if the news events and for that you can easily just check, you know, forex factory or investing.com and there's many different free options for that. So are there news events? Are they red folder?

Okay.

Okay. Number two, I think that's actually we didn't touch upon until now. But like are the markets correlated? And I'm talking about like NASDAQ and the s and P 550, even the YM, the Dow Jones in this context. But in other contexts you can look at, you know, the pairs and that typically correlated.

So.

Yeah, so are the markets correlated?

So typically I want ES and NASDAQ to look similar in structure and sometimes they're not. Sometimes like I think the worst is a tip. Sometimes the worst situations are the NASDAQ's looking quite weak while ES is like ranging and looking kind of bullish. And that's weird. And then meanwhile, YM is like really the strong sister there. And then you're like, all right, well what you don't know what to do sometimes like, oh yes, might look like a bullish situation. That's sense. And this is actually a pretty low probability situation I'm talking about right now is if ES is a bullish scenario, a lot of times it will retrace and then, oh, NASDAQ is really just pulling it down, it'll pull it through and then maybe they'll start correlating afterwards. So if you had actually waited for that, you would have been in a much better situation. But sometimes, you know, especially after a large range move, a large range move the day before, that's going to happen where they're not correlated. And that's where people those divergences where, oh NASDAQ took out this low pre market and then ES did not. So let's, let's draw that out. Actually. It's going to be good.

And those are the two, those are the situations that may maybe like when people look for divergences, they look at for, oh, NASDAQ took out this low pre market, you know, but ES did not, it remained higher.

But then you, you see very quickly that there's divergences on both sides and you're going to see, oh, wait, like NASDAQ did not take out this high, but ES took out this high now. And then that's where it starts getting confusing and you're like, okay, this is those, those situations where I looking for a divergence for a potential reversal situation where in the past maybe you would look for that. Oh, that's potential manipulation to go higher. Yeah, that's not going to end up working out because they're just not correlated. They're just going to continue like this, like that. And that's, that's where SMT's smart money technique divergences won't work.

When the markets are not correlated.

Then that's not going to work. Yeah, so that's a, that's a tip there. The markets are not correlated. You're going to have a hard time definitely because, you know, those are ES and NQ are sisters and they should be, you know, one of them is always a little bit weaker and stronger and the NASDAQ will move faster and NASDAQ will typically take out those lows and highs because there's just more manipulation and it moves a lot quicker. But if they're not looking structurally similar in that fact, then yeah, that's. What, what's your, what's your idea really based upon in that sense? Well, the third, the third thing is obviously is the draw on liquidity.

Can you frame a draw on liquidity? Can you see where the market is likely heading to based on what we talked about on those structures? Equal highs, you know, well, we're aiming, that's a manipulation. We're aiming for those equal highs or some other buy side above or fair value gap above. Do you have an idea of where the market's going to? If you don't, then it's best to sit back with some point. You know, you don't have a, you don't have a trade. Please do not try to make something up on the 32nd.

Oh, wow, I remember those days.

That's it, you know, and yeah, so, so that's, that's what we're talking. I'm going to talk about the drawn liquidity a little bit better there and so equal highs.

Or equal lows or like we were talking about an imbalance on a higher time frame. So like a four hour feg maybe or daily feg. And then what I talked about before, like those short term lows with liquidity below.

Liquidity still below.

Yeah.

Or short term highs of liquidity above. So that would look like.

You have this feg here and to get that high and that's a short term low and it didn't fill this in yet. So that's potential liquidity target here or with highs. Short term highs with a short term high with liquidity above.

Yeah.

Short term for the short term high would be like.

And then we took out some liquidity here and then we have a daily effigy above the short term high. It only filled it in a little bit and now price is bullish. We just hit this other level. And this is my liquidity target up here. That's. I like those as well. But if you, if everything is kind of difficult and you're wicking both ways, that's, that's a clean obvious way that there's not really price action to go with.

Definitely.

So.

Yes, that leads me into the, the next thing. Number four actually.

Yeah, Number four on the checklist is displacements. Right. That we were talking about before.

We were. Yes.

Yeah, we want those energetic shifts.

Yeah, we want those energetic shifts in structure where highs are taken out with displacements with the. This is like a feg. There's a clear potential area for us to continue up higher versus us just kind of on the lower time frame. It's just going to look like this, you know, it's wicking that and then reverting back into the range. So that's important to take note of.

And that also leads me to here is like our effigies being respected on the higher time frame. So if this wasn't respected here on the higher time frame and it just kind of dips below and then, and then it makes like a bearish one, let's say it dips below that, that hourly fair value gap. So I'll redraw that. And now we have a bearish effigy there. And some people call this like a BPR area, like a balanced price range area.

Okay.

And then so they might be looking for shorts but oh, we looked at overnight. Oh, we didn't even respect that either.

That's showing that fegs are not respected. And so that might be a difficult market because even on the higher time frame they're not being respected. Then why should they on the lower?

Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah.

Yeah.

But it's a great checklist, you know, and I think it's important to be able to come to the market, you have your sort of plan, even if you're not using the, the concept that we've gone over today.

Yeah.

It's still important to have a checklist that matches the conditions of your plan. Right. So then that way you're answering these questions and you already know and it allows you to do exactly what you, you set out to do today in terms of identifying low probability to high probability days. Yeah, I think it's important to do that because otherwise if you come into the day and just freestyle, you don't really have a checklist and you're not really trying to identify if it's a good condition day or not. It's easy to kind of treat every day as we talked about earlier, like just treat every day as a trading day, you know, and waste capital and mental energy on trades that just are not worth it.

Exactly. If you're, if you're like trading every day looking for a home run, then you know, you're, you're likely not going to find it because most of the times price is not trending. It's like I'd say like 30% of the time, 20 to 30% of the time price is trending. And the other percent, it's, it's ranging. And so if you're going in every day looking for that home run, then you're not going to find it most of the time. Yeah, exactly. And if you're, if you're confused about price, basically what we say is like if you can't figure out the drawn liquidity, then you are the liquidity. That's a great thing to remember.

Yeah.

So yeah, we can just go ahead into examples.

I think you're on the charts. Yeah, you can see this chart. Amazing.

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Now let's get back to the episode.

So this is pretty much an example of this easier distribution day. I mean I took this live on my live stream. This is a CPI day. You can literally see like this is 8:30 and this is the news release. So you can tell even when you're back testing things that it's. You can easily see without even checking that this is a news release day. And this is the manipulation lag. And I waited for. You can see before it's obviously this is accumulation pretty much what we just drew out.

Yeah, manipulation.

Right. And I waited for more confirmation here. I waited until it broke a swing low with a fair value gap. This is pre market still. So this is after 9:30 and yeah, this is where I was able to trust the market structure because I managed to understand this is a manipulation lag.

Yeah.

And now I was able to see here, okay, we respect, we're respecting these swing highs. And then we broke this low with a fair value gap here. I waited for a retracement here.

And I could have just shorted here. But in that situation I think what happened was there was a one minute effigy here. And this is still on a discount of this leg.

Right. That's below 50%. I would. This is a nice premium one here actually. That would be actually beautiful to just. You could have just went straight short here, trusted the stop up here. I personally just waited for us to disrespect this one minute bullish fair value gap here, to invert it. And then I just entered and I just, I put my stop here because I believe that that was going to be. We rebalanced to this fair value gap and I believe this is the next swing high forming. I took some profit here because that was over 2R and I waited until distribution down here and I was able to take a lot of money from the market there. So I made about, I think $2,600 there. Shorted here from 850, 20,850 and I took the rest off at 750. So that was 100 point trade on NASDAQ.

It's like 15 minutes.

Yeah. In 15 minutes. That's those. That's what I'm saying is like the easiest trade to do because distributes the fastest.

Yes.

You're never really in any kind of emotional drawdown as you're waiting for price. If price is consolidating and you're. It's the worst if you're in a break even trade and it hasn't moved.

Yeah.

Those are the harder environments. But here.

But you can see if you go down as well.

Yeah.

If you go down on the trade seller here. Yeah, yeah. As in scroll down. Yeah. If you scroll down here then you go on the charts and running P L. Yeah, this is what we love to see.

Oh, exactly.

Minimal drawdown for like a minute or two and then straight into profit. It's incredible.

Yeah, exactly. So you're not really, you know, holding your breath for a long time.

No. Yeah.

So that those are the best trades that work out for me is I notice, oh, I'm in. I'm in profit like immediately.

Right.

So for here, the entry. The entries don't really matter nearly as much if you're in a distribution mode. If whether you're going to go for that retracement above 50% or whether you're going to go for after an inversion or maybe another swing low gets taken out and you can get in. It doesn't really matter nearly as much as you know the direction and you know where to put your stop. As long as it's good RR and you're, you're good to hold for further targets. Right. So I took a little partial here at that new low day.

Yeah.

After it broke it a little bit. And then I took the rest off here. And that was. Yeah, that was that trade. It was pretty easy. Like I said, it's pretty much how we drew it out earlier, which I love. And this is like quite the manipulation. But you saw that huge retracement and then started breaking lows. You can recognize that.

And it's great how you waited for that displacement and waited for that low to get taken before entering. Because as you can see with just that one leg there where it ends up taking that high. Imagine you tried to enter there instead.

Yeah, yeah, exactly. With this typically I think right here was probably a divergence with es where ES didn't take out this high.

That makes sense.

Which we've talked about before where the divergence will work out. And personally a lot of times I like to wait after 945 to enter. This was a beautiful one. During the 950 to 1010 macro. Pretty much a standard silver bullet entry.

Yeah, yeah, basically. So typically why I waited a little bit here was to just. I wanted more confirmation and we kind of had these equal highs here and typically most of the time I'm actually waiting for after the first 15 minute candle to form a lot of the times and you see that we did like kind of wicket. We still didn't take out this high here and we did break this low from that CPI surge higher and we broke pre market lows and but this was pretty much indicative here. We didn't take out this high with a displacement there. We. And then we completely dropped below this one. So yeah, this looks like a clean manipulation to the upside is my point.

Especially with the accumulation before as well. Yeah, see it's quite extensive.

Yeah, exactly. So that's one example. Then we can just go to. The next example is actually a bullish example.

Nice.

It's actually the next day I think. Yeah, this is, this is the next day PPI. So that's another 830 news one of the year. So here, you know that day CPI did drop quite a bit and ended up taking out this daily low and into a daily feg, into a daily fair value gap. And we had this huge, like I said, this huge push down lower.

And we, we started Showing even before the New York opening session. Bullishness. So this is where I would look for potential retracement then to 50% of this leg. If we go to the hourly. This is an hourly fair value gap in a premium. So here, let's just check that out. You can see again here. This is an obvious. This is the news release. Yeah, this wick below all these lows here again, accumulation. And this is the day before, by the way. This is kind of ugly. Especially well before. This is like. Well actually the day before was that huge drop and then it hit that level. And then the afternoon session. Yeah, the afternoon session started chopping. Asia and London started chopping. And then you see right here, this is on the one minute. That's the 8:30 news release. Ooh, okay. That's the 8:30 News Release. This huge wick to the downside a lot of times. Yeah, I'm thinking that's the manipulation leg, especially on those kinds of days.

Yes.

Well, you're looking at the 9:30 open here. And I actually had no idea what, what we, we were doing. I waited until up here to get involved in my longs because here I didn't really love. You see all these wicks and there was no clean. I want, I, I'll mark out a high here personally and I want to like, I really like an effigy lined up with it. There's no, it broke this high anyway actually. And there's no bullish fair value for me to get involved here. Upside again after.

10Am Here we took out this low from this leg we've manipulated here, took out this low. And I knew that I had more upside targets here on the hourly.

For the buy side. When I looked, you know, this is important. You're looking at hourly and like four hour typically targets for. If you want, if you want large moves. Right?

Yeah, right.

If you want a large move, you're typically looking for that as your target. If you're looking at a 15 minute or a small time frame, that's fine too if you're entering on a smaller time frame. But how I like to line things up is 4 hour or hourly point of interest for targets or even higher daily and weekly or where you really get those huge moves. But for my entries, you know, the structure shifts on the 15 minute and then entries on the one.

So you could actually see here we made a clean 15 minute fair value gap there at 9:45. And then this is actually a huge thing right there. Yeah, we came back into this 15 minute fair value gap that displaced above these pre market highs. And we wicked that. And I anticipated okay, that's manipulation. And I'm going to get into.

This inverted this little one minute.

You see that displacement? Yeah. That's a strong buy.

Let me just see is there a. A rectangle?

Normally it's scan box the way the brush is, I think. Yeah, down just there.

Oh, perfect. Yeah. Let me put that as a favorite. Sorry. Thank you. I always get. Okay. So yeah. Oh, I love that purple. I'll put him as purple.

Purple.

Oh yeah. So that was clean. That was a 15 minute sweep liquidity retracement into that 15 minute fair value gap. And the price looked super bullish and I anticipated that's manipulation.

We had this little inversion here to look at there. This tiny inversion. So I actually just entered at the closure of this candle or you could wait for that retracement into the 1 minute fair value gap created here. And that was actually nice. And I really noticed here this. These wicks were beautifully wicking and holding the upper component of this and that. Again, if we look down to that running P L like how much drawdown was I really in? Negative 100. Right. For one minute. And then here mostly upside. Right. So those are the easiest again like what valid days.

That's probably about 10, maybe less than 10 minutes. $2,200. It's incredible. You know. Or to the end maybe.

Yeah, exactly. Exactly.

Yeah.

Yeah. So how many points was that from? And this was like not that points even mattered. The RR always matters.

But yeah, of course.

But you could see there with your winners going being much larger. I mean with the loss being for such a small amount of time. You already know you're on side when something like that happens. By the way, that's how I read price a lot of time. It's like after I enter. That's how you know you're in a high probability environment actually is how long are you in drawdown for? Only a tiny bit. And a tiny bit of drawdown. It's more likely you're on the right side and actually gives you a lot more patience to hold to the full target of your trade.

Definitely.

Because if you know that and you're noting that and you typically note like you saw in the last trade also is like 15 minute trade. I know my trades like that are typically 15 minutes long. I'm not going to cut it at 3 minutes and it barely moved.

Exactly.

Or even if I'm in slight profit at the five minute mark. Right.

Is that with like the reps and the data really helps to be confident.

Yeah, yeah, that's where I'm. Yeah, exactly. Really noting that all the time. Like how long does a type price typically take to go to my target in these easy liquidity run conditions? And then noting. Okay, and also in this environment, you know, once we leave this and we make a new high then I can trail my stop to this low easily. You know, then I'm fine with that because that's a low resistance liquidity run environment and those like high probability conditions, it's going to respect that low that it just made before the swing high.

I love the inclusion of the like the 15 minute fair value gap there as well in terms of like then having another manipulation to continue higher. Yeah, it just shows the layers because it's not like it's complex. Not like you're going five minute 15, one hour four. They say, okay, we've had the manipulation. We haven't managed to enter down here at the lows. We've now seen displacement and now what can we see? And it's just a simple step of okay, here's a fair value gap on the lower time frame. We've then seen a displacement and sort of the buy step back in. Now we have a fair value gap to enter from and then we're just looking for our, our move. Right. And within 15 to 20 minutes we have our move.

Exactly. And that's what I'm talking about. Like those are the easier days to trade. Because really it didn't require too much thought for me. And it showed price showed its hand already with that manipulation. It showed its hand with that beautiful displacement to the upside. So it gives me more confidence to enter and just hold for the trade. I think a lot of people might have trouble holding for full targets and things like that. And they ask like how did you hold for this much etc. So that was a good trade as well. Yeah. So next, let's see here.

No, this is a different day. Yeah, so this is another day. Let's see here. I think this was gdp. Yeah, this was. Let's see. And again like this day actually a little bit difficult. This day at GDP release it kind of wicked. Both sides there. And then we started surging a lot higher at 9:30.

This is actually kind of cool. I don't know, I was super patient in this trade because I didn't. I waited until the 1050 macro which is 1050 to 1110 because I guess, I suppose I didn't have like a clean drawn liquidity Beforehand I think I was bearish actually. Yeah, this is an example where I'm bearish but price is not showing me a any kind of entry here for bearishness. So I'm waiting.

The third trade here. This is a I think GDP day.

And I just basically I'll have session highs marked out. This took out a previous daily high this Wednesday high at that peak, that surge there. And it looks like I waited for a good amount of confirmation here for the, for the downside during the 1050 macro. So when I'm talking about those macros I do I. Those are like the endings of those hourly candles. So like 9:50 to 10:10 and start of the next hourly candle. So a lot of times there's like theory about like okay, that's the end of the distribution and going into the next hourly candle and you're getting into that forming essentially. And those are pretty good hot spots. And it seems like those are some good. I mean those are my favorite kinds of trades and those are really silver bullet nice entries.

And here. Yeah this is a GDP and looks like we wicked both sides. And that over there, that's like pretty directionless. Like that doesn't look like that clean of a manipulation afterwards here. There's no distribution here. It does seem like, you know, it could have taken a long here if I was still bullish. But it seems like here.

Looking back I was probably. Yeah I was looking for some shorts there especially after we cleanly displaced below this low here. So after it took a daily liquidity level up there, it did have a nice displacement here to the downside. And these are equal lows from pre market that I went for there. And then this is a data low. I think that's probably where I went for for the second. Let's. We'll find out actually we'll see. Maybe it did hit it or we'll see where that where I took that last profit at. But that's kind of cool that I did end up taking near the low there. 957.

It's pretty, it's pretty close. Maybe like midpoint of this where I took off that last. Yeah runner. So essentially yeah I waited until that clean structure break. To the downside after if you're, if you're bearish, you know over here I the. I'm looking for a low of a displacement.

This would have worked out actually but I, I don't think probably I was risk wise. It was risk wise. The, you know the. This was clean. When you see those large down closed candles Exactly.

And you sweep on the lows to the left as well.

Yeah. Those equal lows to the left after jagged highs.

That's. Well, damn. That's probably. This is probably like a day where it wasn't as clear at the beginning what my bias was, because I waited quite a bit. And let's see here for this. It did consolidate quite a bit.

So not like the other straight targets. That's the reality, right?

Yeah, it did consolidate, but like, again.

That the minimal drawdown there, not too.

Much while the distribution was definitely worth it there.

So. So looking at that, that's a jagged high. Yeah. And having a jagged low here, but this took like a daily high on the left.

Yeah. Is that an example we drew out earlier?

Yeah, exactly. Just like that example. So waiting for that displacement before, below more lows and seeing these equal lows here and a data wick low. Sometimes you see that kind of. I'll just make this larger here. If you see.

This wick low here, that's oftentimes also an area I would go for for my targets. I think I probably let go of this after seeing that it came really close, and I'm just like, all right, that's good enough. Because I did get take it off here just before that. And I just was like, fine with that. But maybe later on it did end up hitting it. But that's the whole point is like you're waiting and you're taking your. Your partials here and then trailing. So then after I distributed to here, then I put my stop pretty much break even at that point. Right. Because it should not. If it's actually a good low resistance environment, then this high should. That took out the swing low should remain intact. So I'm then moving my stop there. And let's say I didn't take that off, then I would be stopped in profit or break even on the next of rest of the trade. It looks like the rest of the day actually did chop around. But that's the point is kind of being like, okay, then we're not continuing lower for more lows after that. And that's fine. You took some money off the table. Yeah, but yeah, that's pretty much it. You. You take out. You look at the jagged highs and lows and you know, if. If you were still bullish here and maybe some people entered somewhere here for that, I think that that's the. You know, that's fine. But. And. Or if you're bearish. There are some other entries too. But that was my trade is that I Waited.

What's. What matters is that you have your system. Right.

Yeah.

So that you could always find a way to be in that trade, that every trade. And that's what some people make a mistake.

Yeah. I typically will review other things on my stream. That's what I'm talking about.

Yeah, I can imagine.

Like, I'm always like, okay, these are the streams that were there today, that day. But the point is kind of, you know, even if you took a loss, maybe on thinking you're going to go take more upside and that'll happen on my streams as well. Sometimes I'll.

Think like, okay, this is taking this high out with a displacement and you know, going on that retrace and that's totally possible. You know, then. Then you're actually making up your money on the downside, you know, on the, on the flip side after you see that, that's why I'm saying like, okay, it's okay to take the second trade essential.

That's why you have that rule.

Yeah, exactly. I'll put my stop where the market structure shift.

Yeah.

Right. So at that swing low here, after we broke that with a displacement, then it was clear, okay, we're going lower for.

But luckily in this case it was just the short.

Yeah.

And then bank.

Yeah. But anyway, it didn't.

But it makes sense though because obviously having that two, two trade rule allows for that number one. Because equally in this case it could have maybe popped higher, hit a stop and then continued lower and then it still gives you another chance to get back in. But having that two trade rule is good as well because if you do take two stop losses, it's also controlling making sure you don't have further downside, just be able to come back the next day freshly or wait for the next AMD to form and, and take it from there. But phenomenal free trades there, you know, all showcasing the exact model from what we went over, showing as well how to be fair, what the beauty of it is as well how each one of those was slightly different. They were the same trade in terms of the concept, but they're slightly different of how they look. And that's just the reality of trading. You know, it's so easy to think that we draw out this concept and this is how, you know, picture perfect we can draw it. But in reality, what it looks like on the chart when you have your candles and you have your, you know, your different highs and lows, etc, yeah, it will look different, but it's about being able to identify the concept identify the high probable days as you you know, clearly done today and absolutely incredible.

Yeah, thanks for having me. And honestly, I think yeah, I I staying out of trouble is the hardest part being a trader because those are days like your your p L. Slowly, slowly paper cut. Those can turn into multiple paper cuts, turn into gushers and then that home run just takes them away and puts you back to break even and then you don't feel as good about it. It's about building up your confidence. Yes. Yeah. So that you're able to level up your trading and really just put the confidence behind yourself and stick to your process.

I love that. Tanya, thank you for being here today. Everyone at home drop a comment of your biggest takeaway from this episode. Any questions drop them in the the comments below. And you know Tanya myself will be taking a look Links for Tanya will be in the description below so make sure you check that out.

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