A trader explains a market-microstructure strategy: buy when fair value is rising and price drops below the fair-value area in a failed auction. When sellers push lower, aggressive buyers absorb the pressure, often through buy programs that prioritize execution over price, creating a discount zone for entry.
I cannot explain how much this made me profitable. The first rule is that fair value must be rising. So we do not want just a break of structure. We want a shift in fair valuation. And the second thing is we're going to wait for what we call a failed auction. We take the fair value area low, take the fair value area high, and this is where price is agreeing now is the fair value. Aggressive sellers are more active on top. Aggressive buyers are more active at the bottoms. Whenever we see this price dropping below, this means that sellers are willing to pay lower and lower and lower prices to get filled. But we're getting into aggressive buyers territory. And so what you will often see at this situation is one of two things: either sellers, these aggressive sellers finding a wall of buyers that are absorbing this pressure because if they were willing to buy all the way here and keep paying worse prices, they don't care about getting filled at the best price; they care about execution. Then it's very likely that if we're here, they're gonna keep doing the same thing. In this buy program, everything below the current fair valuation is discount, and there's a high chance that this will happen.
