A short transcript excerpt from a trading-focused YouTube video emphasizing that traders should form market 'biases' as hypotheses (not certainties), remain flexible to update beliefs in real time, and explicitly plan for possible being wrong by sizing risk. The speaker frames trading outcomes in probabilistic terms and links bias with disciplined risk limits.
And when I say biases, I don't mean like, market's going to go up because I know it's going to go up. No, paint the story, understand the structure, understand why the market may possibly go up, and then look for areas that confirm that. Just because this is what you're painting for the market to do, or you think the market will do, doesn't mean the market will do that. And you have to be open minded and flexible to change that in real time. Hey, there's a probability. A Probability is never 100%. It shouldn't get to 100%. So you need to also leave that room of could be wrong. If I am wrong, what is my risk? How much will I lose? And putting those things together that allow you to kind of be flexible with that bias.
