Lara GuevaraSupply Chain expert (Product and Service)

Air Freight Just Got Worse

3 Apr 2026 · 1 min

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In this brief advisory, Lara Guevara warns that recent Gulf airspace disruptions have eliminated roughly 16‑18% of global air cargo capacity almost overnight, according to Teneta data released in early March 2026. The sudden loss of capacity drives up freight rates, reduces available flight slots, and lengthens lead times, making emergency air‑rescue shipments more costly and slower. Brands that rely on tight inventory buffers for fast‑moving SKUs are most vulnerable. Guevara recommends a concrete risk‑mitigation process: pinpoint the SKU most likely to need an air rescue in Q2, calculate the current cost of an air shipment for that SKU, and record the exposure in the company’s risk register.

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If your backup plan for a late shipment is air freight, that plan just got a lot harder to execute because Gulf airspace disruptions have removed roughly 16-18% of global air cargo capacity almost overnight. Less capacity means higher rates and fewer available slots. Teneta reported this in early March 2026. It's not a rumor, it's the data. Air cargo capacity is constrained, rates are up, and the brands scrambling for emergency air right now are finding it expensive and slow. Here's what this means practically. If you have an SKU that has missed ocean windows before and needed an air rescue, that rescue now costs more and takes longer to arrive. The brands most exposed are the ones with tight inventory buffers on their fastest-moving SKUs. Identify the SKU most likely to need an air rescue in Q2. Calculate what an air shipment would cost at today's rates. Put that number in your risk register.