Lara Guevara found a team holding eight weeks of safety stock because of one stockout two years ago, not because the data required it. Actual demand swings only nine days. Cutting the buffer to three weeks freed $22,000 in trapped capital and showed how data beats fear in inventory decisions.
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8 weeks of safety stock against 9 days of actual variability. That's $22K of fear sitting on a shelf. I asked them, why 8 weeks? And they said, because we stocked out once 2 years ago, one time, and they've been overordering ever since. So I asked the next question, what's your actual variability? What's the real swing in your demand? They said, I don't know. Of course they didn't, because they never looked. We pulled the data. Worst case scenario, actual worst case was a 9-day swing. They were holding 56 days of buffer against 9 days of risk. That's not planning, that's trauma-based inventory management. We reduced safety stock to 3 weeks, still conservative, still more than they needed, but $22K freed because we replaced a feeling with a number. So what is your safety stock based on right now? A spreadsheet or a stacked-out experience happened 2 years ago? Pull the data, find your actual variability. $22K freed by replacing fear with data. That's the fix.