Lara GuevaraSupply Chain expert (Product and Service)

Data Wins, Gut Feel Loses

2 Apr 2026 · 1 min

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Lara Guevara argues that supply chain failures come from founders making decisions without data, not from operational mistakes. Reordering timing, supplier selection, and payment decisions cost far more when based on gut feel, especially with volatile freight rates and unpredictable transit times. Companies need clear metrics on landed cost and lead times, or they're just guessing.

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Most supply chain mistakes don't happen because founders are bad at operations. They happen because founders are deciding without data. Every supply chain decision— when to reorder, who to pay, which supplier to trust— gets more expensive when it's made on gut feel, especially in a volatile market. When freight rates move, when surcharges appear overnight, when transit times change without warning, data is what turns chaos into decisions. If you don't have a clear view of landed cost, supplier lead times, and freight variability, you're guessing, and guessing in supply chain is expensive. The brands that navigate volatility well are not lucky. They are informed, they have numbers, and they look at them before they move.