Forecasting Isn't Math

Forecasting feels overwhelming for most founders, but only because they're doing it backwards. Top three things you need to know about forecasting Number one Forecasting starts with behavior, not formulas. Before you can forecast, you need to understand how your products naturally sells. Does it move steadily? Does it spike on weekends? Does it deep in summer? Forecasting is just recognizing patterns. Number two Forecasting only works when velocity, lead time, and safety stocks are clear. If you skip the basics, forecasting will never feel right. Velocity tells you how fast you sell. Lead time tells you how slow you are. Stock safety stock protects you when things shift. Then forecasting sits on top of all of this. 3. Forecasting isn't perfect. It's a direction. The goal isn't to predict the future perfectly. The goal is to get close enough to plan cash flow, reorders and launches. Forecasting gives you clarity, not perfection.