Lara Guevara tells founders to stop waiting for perfect market conditions and act on supply chain decisions now. She walks through a simple framework: list what you know and don't know, map worst and best cases, then pick a defensible move that protects you.
Chapters
The most expensive thing a founder can do right now is wait for the market to stabilize before making supply chain decisions because the market will not stabilize before your next order cycle. You need to act with imperfect information. That's not reckless, that's how supply chain actually works. Every professional supply chain operator is now making decisions right now with incomplete data. The difference between them and panicking founders is not that they have better data, it's that they have a decision framework. Their framework is simple: here's what I know, here's what I don't know, here's the worst case, here's the best case, here's the decision that protects me in both scenarios. You don't need a perfect answer, you need a defensible one. Write down your biggest open supply chain decision right now. List what you know, list what you don't, then identify the one move that protects you regardless of how this market resolves.