The Next Supply Chain Disruption Is Already Starting

Everyone remembers the supply chain chaos during the pandemic. Factories shut down, ports were jammed, shipping containers went from around $2K to nearly $20K. But what if the next supply chain disruption doesn't look like that at all? What if it starts quietly through energy prices, shipping routes, and tariffs slowly reshaping how products move around the world? I've been watching these signals recently, and it actually reminds me of something from earlier in my career when I was managing the oil category for KFC. And the reason this matters is simple. Founders who understand these signals early can make better decisions before the disruption becomes obvious. Let me explain. Most founders remember the pandemic disruption because factories shut down, consumers suddenly started buying everything online, ports couldn't keep up with demand, and that's why container prices exploded from $2K to almost $20K. The main issue back then was capacity. Too much demand and not enough shipping capacity. Eventually factories reopened and the systems stabilized. It was painful, but the cause was relatively straightforward. Compared to the Suez Canal crisis, another disruption people remember was when the Ever Given ship blocked the Suez Canal in 2021. For about 6 days, one vessel stopped roughly 12% of global trade. Hundreds of ships were stuck waiting and billions of dollars of cargo were delayed. But once the canal reopened, shipping resumed. It caused delays, but it was a short-term disruption. Now, this is where my earlier experience comes in. Before working with TTC Brands, I worked at KFC managing a purchasing category called B06. That category covers oils and fillings, basically everything related to oil. And in fried chicken business, oil is obviously critical. No oil, no frying. No frying, no product. But managing that category taught me something much bigger. Oil isn't just an ingredient. Oil is a driver of the global economy. So part of my job every single day was monitoring crude oil prices, foreign exchange, commodity markets, and geopolitical news. Because when you purchase oil at scale, timing matters. If we believed oil prices were about to increase, we would lock in our purchase price early through contracts. If we waited too long, we would end up paying significantly more. By watching those signals closely, we were able to secure contracts at the right time, and those decisions saved millions of pesos for the company. So monitoring global signals wasn't about panic, it was about being prepared to act early. The reason this experience feels relevant again today is because oil is once again becoming a key signal in the global commodity chain. A large portion of the world's Oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, and when tensions rise in that region, oil markets react quickly. And energy affects every layer of logistics. Factories need energy to produce goods. Ships burn bunker fuel, trucks run on diesel, air freight runs on jet fuel. So when oil prices move, the cost of moving products around the world moves with it. What we're seeing today is a little different from past disruptions because it's not just one event. It's several structural pressures happening at the same time. Energy uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, ships rerouting away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and tariffs pushing companies to move manufacturing away from China. When ships avoid the Red Sea, they often travel around Africa instead, and that adds roughly 10 to 14 days to transit time. And when ships take longer routes, they complete fewer voyages each year, which effectively reduces global shipping capacity. That's one reason freight costs start creeping up. Now add tariff to the complexity. Tariffs add another layer. To avoid tariff, many companies are shifting production to countries like Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and other countries. But these manufacturing ecosystems are still developing. For example, a factory in Vietnam might still import materials from China. So instead of one supply chain, you now have two connected supply chains. China for materials, Vietnam for manufacturing, and that increases complexity and lead time. The reason supply chain professionals watch these signals closely is because these pressures compound. Energy affects freight, freight affects lead time, tariff affects supplier location. Supplier shifts affect production reliability. None of these issues alone will break the system, but when they happen together, supply chains become less predictable and more expensive. Now I want to be very clear about something. The purpose of this video is not to scare founders. We've seen supply chain disruptions before— the pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage— the system eventually stabilized. This is not about predicting disaster. It's simply about being aware of the signals early. If you run a DTC brand, there are practical things you can start thinking about now. Diversifying suppliers, understanding your true landed cost, Planning inventory buffers, negotiating freight early instead of relying only on spot. None of these are emergency moves. They're simply good supply chain strategy. One lesson I learned early in my career managing oil purchases is this: when oil moves, the entire system moves with it. Right now, we're seeing signals that the global supply chain is shifting again, not collapsing, but evolving. And the founders who understand these signals early will have an early advantage. Because when you prepare before everyone else reacts, you just don't survive disruption. You build a stronger business.