The Reorder Timing System That Stops Inventory Bleeding

If you are watching this, you and I are navigating the future of DTC brands together, and the number one thing that will make or break the future is how you manage your inventory. Here's how most founders decide when to reorder: it looks low, so we order more. Or the other classic: stocked out last time, order double. Both of those are bleeding you dry, not a little, or a lot. Today, I'm giving you the exact system to stop it. 4 inputs, 2 formulas, no more guessing. I'm Lara, 17 years in supply chain. I have audited factories across China, Philippines, Vietnam, and the US. I have helped brands from startup to $10 million+ figure out the one thing that quietly makes or breaks their supply chain. And I have watched smart brands yo-yo between two extremes: out of everything, customers ordering, nothing to ship, or way too much, warehouse full or cash locking boxes. The reason is always the same. They never built a system. They are guessing, and guessing is the most expensive thing you can do in supply chain. This is week 3 of inventory month. Today we answer two questions: when do I reorder? And how much do I order? Stay until the end. I have a free tool that does all of this math for you. Let us get into it. Before we touch any formulas, you need 4 numbers. 4, and every one of them is already in your business. You just have not put them together. Input number 1 is sell-through rate. How fast you are actually moving product. Not how fast you think, not 6 months ago, right now. Total units sold over the last 90 days divided by 90, that is your daily rate. Why 90 and not 30? Because 30 is too noisy. One good week throws everything off. 90 smooths it out. Example: 4,500 units in 90 days, or 4,500 divided by 90 is 50 units per day. Your daily rate is 50. Write them down. Input number 2 is lead time with buffer. Not the number your supplier told you, the real number. PO to warehouse shelves, production, shipping, customs, receiving, quality checked, put away, all of it. Then add a buffer, because if your supplier says 30 days, that is when everything goes perfectly. And when does everything go perfectly? Never. Add 15 to 20%. If actual is 40 days, Plan 445. Go back to your last 5 POs and average the real arrival dates. That is your true lead time. Input number 3 is cash position. Just because you should reorder does not mean you can. Before any PO goes out, answer one question: can we afford this order without killing cash flow? If no, you adjust. Order yes, negotiate terms. Push a launch date, but you do not write a check your cash flow cannot handle. That is how brands die. This is the finance connection in the Moofly Wheel. Supply chain and finance talk every week, not every quarter. Input number 4: Demand forecast. If marketing is planning a big campaign, a product launch, a seasonal push, supply chain needs to know because reorder math is only as good as the demand assumptions behind it. So promo calendar, paid media spikes, seasonality— if marketing is not sharing this with operations, your reorder system is built on sand. So 4 inputs: sell-through rate, lead time with buffer, cash position, and demand forecast. You have everything you need. Now let's start building. This is the formula that replaces God fill, the reorder point. It answers one question: at what inventory level do I place my next order so I do not stock out before new product arrives? Think of it like a fuel gauge. You do not wait until the tank is empty to find a gas station. Reorder point equals daily rate times lead time plus safety stocks. With our numbers, 50 units a day times 45 days is 2,250. That is how much you will sell while waiting for the new order, plus 500 units of safety stock, your cushion for unexpected. So 50 times 45 plus 500, reorder point is 2,750. When inventory hits 2,750, you order, not when it looks Slow, not on a panic Friday, not when your gut says, "Uh-oh." At 2,750, the system says order now, and the system is right because it is based on math, not feelings. Quick note on safety stock: 500 is not a magic number. If your supplier is reliable and domestic, maybe 1 week of sales is enough. If you're shipping ocean freight from Asia, maybe 3 or 4 weeks. Good starting point, 2 weeks of daily sales. 50 times 14 is 700. Adjust for your reality. The exact number matters less than having a number. Systems beat vibes every single time. And by the way, if you want something that does this math for you, I built a reorder calculator and put it in this week's Unboxed Weekly, my free newsletter. Every week, one supply chain strategy you can implement that Save Week. Link in the description, it's free. And the cost of not reading it, that is the expensive part. All right, so you know when to order. Now, how much? Order more is not a quantity. Here is the second formula: order quantity equals target days times daily rate minus current stock. Target days is how many days of supply do you want after this order lands. For most DTC brands, 60 days is solid enough runway without drowning in scuff. 60 days times 50 units is 3,000 minus 500 units you still have. For example, you order 2,500, not 5,000, not whatever fills a container, 2,500, because that is what the math says. Your supplier says minimum order quantity is 5,000, most founders just say okay because they do not want to upset the supplier because they think they will sell it eventually. No, stop. Your math says 2,500. If MOQ is 5,000, you negotiate. Can I get a lower MOQ and a slightly higher unit cost? Can I split into two deliveries? Can I find a supplier whose minimums matched my actual needs. The MOQ is a starting point for conversation, not a command. Order 5,000 instead of 2,500, and you just tied up cash in 2,500 units you did not need. The cash could have gone to marketing, a new product, payroll. Instead, it is sitting in boxes costing you storage fees. The MOQ trap is real. Do not fall into it. Now, wondering what to actually say to your supplier? When you subscribe to Unbox Quickly, you get a 7-day welcome series before your first regular in-shoot. Inside, 10 negotiation scripts word for word, plus a COGS playbook, vendor audit checklist, and a carton optimization guide that saves brands 50% on logistics. People say the welcome series alone is worth more than courses they have paid for. More. It's free, link in description. Now let me tell you what happens when you do not have this system. I work with a brand, great product, $3 million in revenue, growing fast. They stopped out on their hero SKU right before their biggest campaign. Marketing had spent months building up to this, ads running, influencers are posting, and the warehouse was empty. Stockout cost is about $20K in lost revenue. Bad enough, but here is where the real damage happened. The founder panicked. I get it, stocking out is terrifying and you feel like you're letting everyone down. So they called their supplier and ordered 6 months of inventory all at once to never stock out again. So 6 months later, warehouse full, cash is gone, could not fund the next product launch, could not run ads, and could not hire. The stockout cost $20K. The panic order cost $150K. A $20K problem became a $150K crisis not because they failed, but because they reacted, because fear drove the decision instead of a system. With their order point formula, they would have ordered earlier before the stockout, and with that order quantity formula, they would have ordered 2,500 units, not 15K. Fear is the worst planner in your business. Let the math plan. Let the system plan. Now let's bring it together. I do not want you to watch this and forget it. I want you to build this this weekend. Step 1, for inputs: sell-through rate, Lead time with buffer, cash possession, demand forecast. And step 2, reorder point: daily rate times lead time plus safety stocks. When inventory hits that number, you order. Step 3, order quantity: target days times daily rate minus current stock. That is how much. And step 4, check the MOQ trap. Negotiate, do not just comply. And step 5, Fear is the worst planner. Systems beat panic every single time. This weekend, pull your top 5 SKUs, run both formulas for all 5, 1 hour. That 1 hour saves you months of guessing and thousands in wasted cash. Now, I write a free newsletter called Unbox Weekly. Simplest way to describe it, a $150K a year supply chain VP in your inbox. Every week and for free. Every issue is one deep dive into one supply chain problem with the exact script, frameworks, and step-by-step tactics to fix it. Not theories, but real playbooks from real brands. Like the brand overpaying COGS by 12%, $50K a year, because nobody renegotiated vendor terms. Or burning $20K on shipping because a carton configuration was wrong. A 30-minute 6. When you subscribe, you get a 7-day welcome series, 7 playbooks, 10 negotiation scripts, carton optimization guide, conks playbook, vendor audit, fulfillment strategy and sourcing diversification, team building, all free, 7 days, 7 playbooks. People tell me the welcome series is worth more than courses they have paid hundreds for. The formulas I gave you today, those are the assisted Unbox Weekly gives you the tools to run that system every week. Unbox Weekly gives you the tools to run that system every week. You're not doing supply chain wrong, you're just doing it without a playbook. Unbox Weekly is the playbook and it's free. The cost of not reading it, that is the expensive part. Link in the description, takes 10 seconds. We also have a free Slack community, link in description, full of founders building their supply chain in real time. You are not alone. Next week, how one brand freed 120K in cash trap in NIMETRY. That money went straight back into growth. You do not want to miss that. Subscribe so you do not miss it. Drop a comment and what is your biggest reorder headache? I read every single one. See you next week.