In this advisory video, Lara Guevara explains how the recent US‑Israel strikes on Iran have caused major carriers (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag‑Lloyd) to suspend service through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, forcing ships to detour around Africa and adding 10‑15 days to Asian shipments. Freight rates are 48‑79% above 2023 levels and war‑risk surcharges now appear on every invoice. Chinese suppliers, who have been offering Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) for the past three years, are refusing to continue DDP because they cannot predict duties and costs under the new volatility. Guevara clarifies that DDP was never true protection—it merely hid the cost and risk by making the supplier the importer of record, leaving brands with no visibility into customs values, HTS codes, or broker practices. When DDP collapses, the risk shifts to the brand, which must now manage freight, customs, and duties without infrastructure. She contrasts the two main alternatives: FOB (Free On Board), where the brand controls freight, broker, and duties, and CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight), where the supplier covers ocean freight but the brand still handles customs and duties. Guevara argues that moving to FOB, despite the initial effort of hiring a freight forwarder, a US customs broker, and verifying HTS codes, provides essential control and visibility. She warns that brands still using outdated landed‑cost models underestimate delivered cost by 12‑18%, which can halve margins when freight surcharges, war‑risk fees, equipment imbalance fees, and peak‑season surcharges are added. To mitigate the crisis, she recommends three immediate actions: (1) contact top China suppliers to confirm current incoterms, (2) secure a licensed US customs broker within the week, and (3) pull HTS codes for top SKUs, verify duty rates, and rebuild landed‑cost calculations. Guevara also promotes a 30‑day daily email series covering tariffs, freight, carriers, DDP, inventory, and actionable steps, as well as consulting services from her firm Move to audit incoterms and freight setups.
Chapters
You think TDP is gonna survive these Middle East wars? Let me show you what's actually happening. 2 weeks ago, the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, and within 24 hours, 24 hours, Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, every major carrier suspended. Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, gone. Ships are now going the long way around Africa. That's 10 to 15 extra days on every Asia shipment. Freight rates still 48% to 79% above 2023 levels, war risks surcharges hitting every invoice, and your Chinese supplier, the one who's been happily doing DDP for the last 3 years, is now looking at all of these and saying, I don't know what I'll owe in duties when this container lands, so I cannot absorb this. So they're saying no to DDP across the board. A brand came to me this week Lara, our supplier just declined our DDP order. What do we do? They didn't have a plan because they never thought they'd need one. DDP felt like a forever deal. It wasn't. Here's what most founders don't realize about DDP. It was never really protection. It was convenience. Under DDP, your Chinese supplier is the importer of record. They own the customs process, they handle the duties, they deal with the broker. You get one clean price and zero visibility into how that price was built. You don't know what value they declared at customs. You don't know which ATS codes they used. You don't know if the broker they hired is cutting corners to give you that suspiciously low landed cost. And then something goes wrong. Delayed shipment, flagged entry, held cargo. You're the one waiting. You're the one missing your peak season window. You're the one explaining to customers why orders are late. DDP didn't protect you from the risk, it just hid it. And right now, with the Middle East escalation, that hidden risk just became very visible. So your supplier said no to DDP. That risk doesn't disappear, it just moves directly to you, and now you're the one figuring freight, customs, and duties with zero infrastructure to support it. Add the US-China tariffs on top, still active, still volatile. The Supreme Court struck down parts of the tariff structure last month. Your supplier cannot price what they can't predict. Now, when a supplier declines TTP, they'll move you to two options. First, FOB, Free On Board. Risk and responsibility transfer to you when goods are loaded onto the ship in China. You control the freight, the broker, the customs, and the duties. You own the process end to end. Next is CIF, Cost Insurance Freight. Your supplier covers the ocean leg, but customs and duties on arrival is yours. Here's what I tell every brand I work with the past 7 years. If you can, if If you have the manpower and the time and the support, move to FOB. Yes, it's more work the first time. You need a freight forwarder, you need a custom broker, you need to know your HTS codes. But FOB gives you something DDP never gave you— control and visibility. You see every cost line. You're not eating a supplier markup on freight you never agreed to. You know exactly how your goods are being classified and valued. And when something goes wrong, And in 2026, things go wrong, you're talking to your own broker, not waiting on factory in Shenzhen to fix a customs problem at 3 AM your time. I know it sounds like more moving parts. It is. Once. After that, it's just your system. Let's talk about what doing nothing actually costs now. If your landed cost model hasn't been updated in the last 60 days, you're probably underestimating your delivered cost by 12-18%. Here's why. Freight rates still up 48 to 79% above 2023 depending on your lane. Bar risk surcharges mandatory now on Gulf cargo, brand new line item. Equipment imbalance surcharges, containers are getting stranded at diversion ports. Peak season surcharges already appearing for Q2. None of those were in your original quote. All of them will be on your invoice on a product with a 40% gross margin, a 15% landed cost or price cuts, your margin in half, or worse, flips it negative. This is not a shipping problem, this is a profitability problem. The brands winning right now are the ones who know their real delivered cost, not the number from 6 months ago, not the hoped-for numbers, the real number today with everything included. 3 things, 1 hour. 1, call your top 3 China suppliers this week, ask them directly, are you still offering DDP? If not, what terms are you moving to? Don't assume, ask. 2, if you don't have a licensed US customs broker, get one. Not next month, this week. Whether you're on DDP or FOB, you need a broker in your corner who is working for you, not your supplier. 3, pull the HTS codes for your top 10 SKUs, verify the current duty rate with your broker, then rebuild your landed cost from scratch with real numbers. 1 hour, it could save you from the exact situation that brand walked into. I'm sending a daily email for 30 days covering exactly these: tariff, freight, carriers, DDP, inventory, what's happening, what to do, one action per day. Link is in the description, get on the list. And if you want to actually sit down together, audit your Incoterms, your freight setup, your real landed cost, that's exactly what we do at Move. That link is also below. DDP felt like a protection. For a lot of brands, it was a blind spot. Now you know the difference. Save this, share it with whoever is managing your sourcing, and see you tomorrow.
