Lara GuevaraSupply Chain expert (Product and Service)

Your Oil Prices Are About to Explode. Here's Why

23 Mar 2026 · 2 min

Watch on YouTube

2:22

In a concise, urgent briefing recorded from Manila, Lara Guevara warns DTC founders about a sudden geopolitical crisis that could dramatically raise oil prices and disrupt global supply chains. She details former President Trump’s 48‑hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s retaliatory threat to keep the strait closed if U.S. power plants are struck, and the immediate market reaction: oil prices above $114 per barrel and a 70% rise in U.S. crude since the start of the year, with Goldman Sachs projecting elevated prices through 2027. The video lists concrete cost impacts—MACGM’s $150 per TEU emergency fuel surcharge, emergency bunker surcharges of $200 per 20‑foot container and $400 per 40‑foot container—and cites Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen’s warning that carriers will impose maximal surcharges. Guevara then delivers three actionable steps: (1) contact freight forwarders for updated all‑in rates, (2) verify DDP terms with Chinese suppliers, and (3) adjust lead‑time estimates to account for ships rerouting around Africa, adding 10‑15 days. She cautions that a stockout is imminent, urges calm, and points viewers to her weekly Unbox update for ongoing guidance.

Chapters

Hey, good morning from Manila. It's 7 AM here and I'm recording this now because what came out of the Middle East last night is something every DTC founder needs to hear before they start their week. So let's get into it. Last night at 11:44 PM, Trump posted on Truth Social giving Iran a 48-hour ultimatum. His exact words: if Iran doesn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the United States will obliterate their power plants. Starting with the biggest ones first, Iran responded within hours. Their military said, if the US strikes our power plants, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until those plants are rebuilt. That deadline expires tonight. Markets opened to this headline this morning. Oil is already above $114 a barrel. Goldman Sachs says elevated prices could last through 2027. US crude is up 70% since January 1st, and this is the biggest disruption to global energy since the 1970s oil crisis, and it is hitting your supply chain directly. Here's what's already on your freight invoice this week. MACGM's emergency fuel surcharge, which is $150 per TEU, live today. Emergency bunker surcharge, $200 per 20-foot, $400 per 40-foot, hits Tuesday globally, and no exceptions. At TPM26 3 weeks ago, Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen said carriers will apply as many and as high surcharges as humanly possible. That is exactly what's happening right now. So 3 things today. 1, call your freight forwarder, get a revised all-in rate including both surcharges. If your quote is older than 5 days, it is wrong, outdated. Do not book on it. 2, check your open POs. If you're on DDP with a Chinese supplier, call them and ask, are you still honoring those terms? A lot of them are not. 3, update your lead time. Some ships are going around Africa, that's 10 to 15 extra days and hasn't been recalculated. A stockout is coming and you won't see it. Nobody knows how the next 48 hours would resolve, but the brand that survive this are the ones making decisions on what's actually happening. No unnecessary panic. The link of our Unbox Weekly is in the description. I'm updating every week what's real, what to do. Let's keep moving.