Lara GuevaraSupply Chain expert (Product and Service)

Your Real Lead Time Isn't What You Think

11 Dec 2025 · 1 min

Watch on YouTube

1:09

Lara Guevara explains why DTC founders underestimate lead time. A supplier's quoted 30 days only covers production, not QC, packing, customs, or 3PL receiving, which can stretch it to 60-90 days. Wrong lead times break your reorder points and guarantee stockouts.

Questions this video answers

60–90 days (includes QC, packing, booking, vessel delays, customs tracking, and 3PL receiving).

You are guaranteed a stockout (the speaker says "you're already late" / "guaranteeing a stockout").

Chapters

If your inventory always arrives late, it's not your vendor, it's your lead time calculation. And most founders get it completely wrong. Here is the top three reasons lead time breaks DTC brands Number one you think it's production days. It's not. When founders say lead times 30 days, they're only counting production. But real lead time includes QC packing, booking, vessel delays, customs tracking and three PL receiving. Your 30 days is actually 60 to 90 days days. Number two the wrong lead time creates the wrong reorder point. You might think you're reordering early, but if your lead time is wrong, you are already late. If your real lead time is 75 days and you reordered based on 45 days, you're guaranteeing a stackout. The math was wrong from the start. Number three Lead time is the reason forecasting feels off. Forecasting isn't broken. Your timing is. Velocity tells you how fast you sell, lead time tells you how slow you can replace. Get both right and planning becomes calm and predictable.