Lara Guevara explains why DTC founders get shipping routes wrong and how disruptions ripple across global networks. China-to-U.S. shipments take 25-35 days to West Coast ports, but Red Sea incidents reshuffle carriers' entire fleets. When lead times stretch from 35 to 50 days, a brand ordering 50 units daily faces stockouts, forcing costly air freight that spikes from $4-8/kg to $10-15/kg or higher.
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Do you know where your sea shipment is passing through? A lot of founders think their shipments from China go through the Suez Canal, but most of the time they don't. And understanding the actual route your inventory takes might be the difference between staying in stock or suddenly scrambling to air freight your products. Let me explain. I'm Lara from Move Supply Chain. I've, I've been working in global supply chain for about 17 years, and right now I'm seeing a lot of confusion among DTC brands about what's actually happening in global shipping. So today I want to break down these 3 simple things. 1, the real shipping routes from China to the US, why global disruptions still affect you even if your route didn't change, and why air freight prices can suddenly spike. Most DTC brands importing from China ship to the US West Coast ports like Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle. These containers travel straight across the— those containers travel straight across the Pacific Ocean. So the route usually looks like this: from China to Pacific Ocean to US West Coast. Transit time is usually around 25 to 35 days port to port. So that means most shipments do not go through the Suez Canal. The Suez route is usually used when containers are going to Europe or sometimes to the US East Coast. East Coast. For the East Coast, ships typically go through the Panama Canal instead. Now here's the important part. Even if your container travels across the Pacific, global disruptions still affect the entire system because shipping carriers operate global vessel networks. When something happens in one region, like the Red Sea disruptions, carriers start rerouting vessels, reshuffling schedules, reallocating equipment, adjusting port costs. So even if your route didn't change, you might still see delayed vessel departures, longer lead times, container shortages, schedule gaps, and this is where a lot of brands get caught off guard. Their inventory planning is based on old transit assumptions. Every supply chain runs on a number called the reorder point. The formula is simple: average daily sales times lead time safety stock. So let's say you sell 50 units per day. If your lead time assumption was 35 days, then your reorder point would be 1,750 units. But if real lead time becomes 50 days, your reorder point jumps to 2,500 units. That's a 750-unit gap, and that's exactly how stockouts happen, not because founders forget to reorder, but because the math changed. Another thing founders don't realize, about half of global air cargo actually travels in passenger planes. So when flights get canceled or rerouted, cargo capacity drops. That means less available space, harder bookings, and air freight prices moving up quickly. Typical China to US air freight can range anywhere from $4 to $8 per kilo, but during disruptions, it can easily jump to $10 to $15 per kilo or more. So if brands suddenly try to switch to air to avoid stockout, that's when margins get painful. So the takeaway is simple. Even if your shipping route hasn't changed, global disruptions can still affect your lead time, inventory replanning and freight cost. And the brands that stay ahead are usually the ones who adjust their planning assumptions early. If you want more breakdowns like this, practical supply chain insights for DTC brands, subscribe to the channel. I share what I'm seeing in real time working with our clients. See you in the next one.
