Your Timeline Is Built On A Maybe

When your supplier says 45 days, they mean 45 days if everything goes right. Right now, everything is not going right. Lead times are estimated based on normal conditions, and current conditions like port congestion, carrier capacity shifts, custom delays are not normal. Maersk is already warning of extended transit time from current disruptions. IMF Data from the Red Sea rerouting showed average delay of 10 or more days when routes shifted. That's before customs and domestic tracking. I worked with a brand that planned a Q2 launch based on a 42-day lead time. Actual lead time came in at 61 days. They launched into the wrong season. Sales were 40% below plan. Ask your supplier what their current production queue looks like, not just their standard lead time. Those are two different numbers.