Lenny RachitskyHost of Lenny's Podcast | Author of Lenny's Newsletter

Follow megatrends, not hype cycles

28 Feb 2026 · 1 min

Watch on YouTube

0:50

In this brief talk, the speaker explains how to differentiate a true megatrend from a fleeting hype cycle. He argues that megatrends are concepts that are easy for the general public to grasp and will affect a large portion of the global population, whereas hype cycles are often complex, require specialist knowledge, and lack clear everyday use cases. The speaker uses the inability to understand "Burp 3" as an example of hype, contrasting it with AI tools like ChatGPT, which are straightforward to use and therefore exemplify a megatrend. The core advice is to avoid fighting megatrends and to steer clear of vanity projects tied to hype cycles.

Chapters

You have to know the difference between a megatrend and a hype cycle. When there's a megatrend, don't fight it. And don't succumb to the temptation of trying to go out and do vanity work for a hype cycle. There's a bunch of hype cycles we've had, and the easiest way for me to tell is the way it's described. Is it easy to understand what this could do in its ultimate form for most people, or do you need to have a PhD to understand what someone's saying? When you feel like you need a PhD to understand what someone's saying, chances are it ain't going to be a megatrend, because by definition, a megatrend is going to impact a large population of the world. And if the thing is too complicated, chances are it's not going to have that level of effect. Burp 3 was the one that I actually cite all the time. I couldn't understand what it did. I couldn't make a heads or tails out of a use case. But with AI, it's like you go to chat GPT, you ask it a question, you get an answer. I get this AI is a megatrend.