This is a YouTube video titled "People tend to naturally be a little too confident" containing a monologue or talk recorded on May 16, 2025. The speaker discusses the importance of accurately communicating one's level of confidence and evidence when sharing ideas or recommendations, highlighting the risks of both overconfidence and underconfidence in professional settings.
You can avoid a lot of problems if you speak accurately about your level of conviction and about the actual amount of evidence that you have for something. I find that people tend to naturally be a little bit too confident as a baseline or not confident enough. People who are too confident might state hypotheses as if they are fact. So that really bothers me where, you know, if you say, this is X or this will X, that is different than saying this could X or this might X or this will increase the likelihood of X. It's okay for something to be an initial hunch. Say it's an initial hunch. Don't act like this is something that you are super sure about. You've proven out because the rest of your team is listening to you at face value. And y'all might spend real headcount and dollars pursuing something that you have advocated for in a way where you kind of overreached with your level of confidence. It's equally a problem if you're underconfident. So I have some clients who their CEO asked them to share some recommendations with another team. And so they share all this amazing information. And at the end, they're like, oh, but you can ignore everything I just said. You know, obviously make your own decision, do what you think is best. And like, if you wanna just ignore everything, that's totally cool too. And it's like, you just didn't have to say that. You could say, make your own decision, like take all this into account, but like, you don't have to diminish to that degree. Like if you have really strong reasons to recommend something to, you know, to the cross-functional team, it's almost almost irresponsible to act like you are not really sure and it's just this like random idea. Again, speaking accurately is so, so important.