Mark Matson argues that stock picking, market timing, and chasing past performance are all gambling because any predictable information is already baked into current prices. Only unknown, unpredictable events move markets, so trying to beat them is speculation.
But the reality is that those are all flawed methodologies of investing because they're based on prediction of the future. And when you think about that, that's really insane because number one, no one can predict the future. And if they could tell you exactly what stocks were going to be the best stocks, they wouldn't tell you. They keep all that information for themselves. And all the knowable and predictable information about the future is already factored into the price today. Therefore, only unknowable and unpredictable information are going to change the prices going forward. That means stock picking, market timing, and track record investing are all forms of gambling and speculating with your money. So number one is don't speculate with your money.
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