Naval Ravikant argues investors should act like creators: make high-conviction bets on difficult long-shots like fusion and advanced AI rather than copying others. Tesla, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Apple were all written off before becoming unexpected winners.
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Because one of the problems of being an investor is, let's face it, it's not a job. You know, you're not actually building anything, you're investing, right? Okay, yes, people make a job out of it, but it's not necessarily something you can sit there and take credit for. It's not something you can necessarily be proud of. And one of the things that I like that Peter Thiel said, which is that you should have a definite view of the future. You should actually go out and build the thing you want to see exist, not just say, oh well, that's going to happen. I'm going to sit back and wait for somebody else to do it. Because history doesn't work that way. Things don't just automatically show up. There are great men and women who go out there and create these things and so try to be one of those people who creates these things. And if you're going to be an investor, at least bet on things that you think may not exist without you betting on them. So you say, okay, well I did the homework on this very difficult technology project and because it's got nuclear fusion or it's got glucose monitoring or it's got even very difficult software like AI is a good example, I made a bet here, I did the homework and I made a bet that no one else was going to make. And if it weren't for me, at least in some small part, this thing would either not exist or it would come to market later. But the other mindset, which is I'm just going to get hustle ahead of other investors, I'm going to slip some money in before they get there and then they mark it up. And it's the thing that everyone can see is winning. Maybe you'll make money, sure, but it's a very unfulfilling life and I would argue long term you will not make the most money. Because the greatest winners of the last few decades have been unexpected winners. They've been companies like Tesla and SpaceX and OpenAI and Apple Computer. These were companies that were written off. They were essentially written off because it was believed that their dream was impossible and too expensive. But Now I think SpaceX is launching a rocket every three days out of Florida. Tesla, obviously Teslas are crushing every other electric car out there and are basically the gold standard for not just the best electric car but also the best self driving vehicle. So when you see these impossible dreams come true, not only is it the most fulfilling thing, it's also where you make the most money.
