A short talk by Sam Altman arguing that one of the remaining market arbitrage opportunities is time: making long-term commitments (to companies, investments, and startups) yields outsized value compared with short-term, high-frequency focus. He recommends founders and investors adopt a 'forever' horizon—creating long-term value for the world and capturing a fraction of it over extended periods.
Chapters
I think that one of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time. I think we have gotten really good at high frequency trading, we have gotten really good at the price of things and we have gotten worse at the long term value. And I don't think you can go beat the market in a lot of ways, but the one way I do is by making a long term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock and the best companies I invest in is forever. And I think in a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earnings cycle, you should try and go in the other direction. And this is a great way to generate value and wealth. And so I think that when you're thinking about a startup, it's really worthwhile to think about something you're willing to make a very long term commitment to, because that is where the current void in the market is. You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people. So there's this view of the world that business is all about like trying to steal money. And sometimes that's true, but the best companies just create mass amounts of value for the world and then they capture some of that for themselves, but they capture far less than they create and they do it over a very long period of time. So if you're going to be one of those companies, I think you want to make a super long term commitment to yourself and others that are going to work on it with you, that this is going to take a long time, but it is worth waiting because you will make far more money over the long horizon by doing this company really well than a bunch of short term things along the way.