How to evaluate AI growth stocks (Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave) beyond market hype

Before you let a headline change your weekend, make sure you understand what the number actually means. Today we're talking about the stock market, OpenAI revenue, and the AI spending story we've been following together. Then we're going to do something a financial show should give you permission to do. Stop staring at your money and enjoy some of the life it's supposed to support. Welcome to the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. I'm Mike Milligan, and it's Friday, October 9th. Our new Friday segment is called Worked All Week, Time to Relax. And no, relaxation does not require a plane ticket, a luxury hotel, or a credit card bill you regret on Monday. But before we get there, let's catch up on the news from Thursday.

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Thursday was a split market. Here's the closing scoreboard. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1%, S&P down 0.47%, NASDAQ Composite down 1.25%, the Russell 2000 up 0.03%. AI-related stocks were a major source of pressure while the Dow managed just a small gain. That's why the market was down doesn't tell you everything about the day. In bonds, the 10-year Treasury erased or eased to 5.23%, erasing 0.05% from the previous close off of the yield. The VIX moved up 15.41. That's a move up from 15.08 the day before. My read is that a little relief in Treasury yield did not remove the question surrounding technology stocks. I would not turn either one day of lower yields or one day of selling into an all-clear signal or a disaster forecast. We're going to keep watching the interest rate story, but keep your decisions tied to what your financial plan says, what your cash needs are, and ultimately, if you owe money, what your borrowing costs are.

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OpenAI, read the definition before reacting to the number. Now, the story you may, may have seen on CNBC and its reaction in the markets yesterday and potentially into today is that OpenAI told investors it reached roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September. That was below a $68 billion figure widely reported late last month. But there is an important detail. According to a person familiar with the matter cited by CNBC, that larger figure included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners. The article did not identify those partners or provide a complete reconciliation. So I do not want you walking away saying, quote, OpenAI just lost $18 billion in sales, end quote. The reporting describes differently defined measures. Not proof that $18 billion of previously earned revenue disappeared. Let me make annualized simple with a hypothetical example. If a business generates $10 in a month and multiplies that pace by 12, it can describe a $120 annualized pace. That does not mean it has already collected $120. It also doesn't tell you its expenses, its profit, or whether that pace will continue. Same principle, much larger numbers with OpenAI. CNBC reported selling in Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave, and other AI-related stocks as investors digested the OpenAI news. It also reported substantial growth in OpenAI's revenue run rate. So this was not simply a story about a business that had stopped growing. Here is how I connect it to our ongoing AI CapEx spending discussion. Think of a hypothetical restaurant opening a much bigger dining room. The contractor gets paid to build it. The equipment company gets paid for the ovens. The restaurant still has to fill the seats, serve the meals, and generate enough cash to support that expansion. A busy construction site and a profitable dining room are related, but they are not the same measurement. That is the question I want us to keep bringing to AI earnings. How does the spending on capacity connect to the demand for paying customers? I'll be looking for 3 things. First, what revenue measure is management using? Second, how much cash must the business spend to deliver that revenue? Third, what assumptions have to come true for the investment to earn an attractive return? return for investors. This article I'm citing from CNBC does not by itself prove that AI investment is a bubble. It also does not establish that every dollar being, being committed to the buildout will pay off. My takeaway for you: a technology can be useful, a business can be growing, and an investment can still carry meaningful risk. You do not have to choose between believing every pomp promise and dismissing the entire industry. You can ask better questions. We'll do that alongside you on the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily.

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A little more about today. Here's what I'm watching. Think of them as watchlists for learning, not a list of trades. First, the consumer. The University of Michigan is scheduled to release its preliminary October consumer survey at 10:00 AM Eastern today. I love looking at this survey. It gives an idea of how the consumer is doing. I'll be looking beyond the headline to how people describe their finances and their expectations for prices. The survey measures how people feel as earnings arrive. We can compare that with what companies say customers are actually doing. as they report in the coming weeks. Second, I'm looking at the reaction to the AI story I previously mentioned. I want to see whether the selling stays concentrated or broadens out a little bit and whether companies provide clarification that helps investors compare the revenue numbers more accurately. And third, I'm going to watch rates. You probably could have guessed that. I'll be watching whether Thursday's decline in the 10-year holds rather than assuming that a single session settled the issue. Next week also brings large bank earnings spotlight with JPMorgan Chase and Jamie Dimon scheduled for October 13th and Bank of America on October 14th. We'll keep asking about spending, borrowing, and the health of the consumer. That is the thread, uh, from last quarter into this quarter. Consumer health and AI CapEx spending. Different stories, but both eventually have to be tested against business results.

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Now our new segment on Friday, Worked All Week, Time to Relax. You've worked all week. Now let's make sure the weekend contains something besides errands and another look at your account balance. Welcome to this segment. Here are a few things on the cultural calendar of one invitation that does not require buying anything. It's Rivalry Saturday. Matter of fact, the Red River Rivalry, where the University of Texas plays the University of Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Kickoff is set for 2:30 Central, 3:30 Eastern. If you're listening in Texas, I probably do not need to explain why that belongs on the weekend calendar.

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If you're watching from Virginia or Hawaii, it's an opportunity to invite someone over and make an afternoon of it. Here's my only financial advice for the snack table: decide the budget before the grocery trip. It's remarkably easy to turn a few people watching a game into a catering operation. And please let the biggest disagreement of the afternoon be about football. Your friend's portfolio does not need A halftime review. Also this weekend, October baseball. Although my Atlanta Braves are out of the playoffs now after losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the division series, the National League Championship Series is scheduled to begin on Sunday. That gives baseball fans another reason to make room for the postseason this weekend. Maybe that means watching the game with someone who taught you to love baseball. Maybe it means calling that person between innings instead of just sending a score. Sometimes the event is not the memory, the person you share it with is. For our music lovers, it's Austin City Limits Music Festival. It runs from October 9th through October 11th at Zilker Park in Austin. If you're going, enjoy it and plan the transportation as carefully as the tickets. If you're not going, you are not excluded from the idea. Put an album on this weekend you have not heard in years. Find a local performance in your community that fits your budget and ask someone you love to play a song that reminds them of a particular time in their life. You might learn something about that person that never comes up when the conversation starts with, how was work? See, your weekend does not have to become content. Here's my invitation. Choose one thing you actually want to do, not one thing you think you should do. Take a walk, cook a meal, watch the game, listen to the music without answering email at the same time. And if your weekend includes work or caregiving, I'm not pretending you just turn the switch off of those responsibilities. Maybe your moment is smaller, a quiet cup of coffee, a favorite song on the drive, or a phone call you've been meaning to make. It still counts. Rest does not have to be elaborate to be worth protecting. Tell me in the comments today, what is the one thing you're making time for this weekend? I don't want to know what you're buying. I want to know what you're making time for.

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This week we'll keep at— we've kept asking what the headlines mean for your life. Today I want to turn that question around to you. What is your financial plan helping you make room for? Because the purpose of understanding the market is not to spend every waking hour watching it. And the purpose of working hard is not to become so good at postponing life that you forget to participate. You can take your responsibilities seriously and still enjoy your Friday and the weekend. You could plan for tomorrow without treating today as a waiting room. My challenge is simple. Before you close this episode, put one worthwhile moment on your weekend calendar. Schedule it with yourself. Give it the same respect you would give an appointment. I'm Mike Milligan. This is the one-of-a-kind financial show daily. You worked all week. Make room for a little life. Never miss a moment, folks. I'm not only learning; I am changing. No solo estoy aprendiendo. También estoy cambiando. This show provides general education, not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and forward-looking statements may not occur as expected. Company mentions are not recommendations to buy or sell securities. Consider your circumstances with the— with appropriate professionals before making those decisions. I am an investment advisor representative with Advisory Alpha LLC. Ideas by Mike doing business as One Oak Financial. Mike Milligan LLC doing business as the One Oak Collective. Are unaffiliated entities of Advisory Alpha LLC. Have a good weekend.

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