In this monologue on the Draymond Green Show, Draymond Green walks through his thought process for predicting the 2023 NBA Finals winner. He begins by reflecting on a list of championship‑winning players, coaches, and franchises, noting how most recent title runs involved members of that list, while "one‑off" champions (Boston 2008, Dallas 2011, Toronto 2019, Milwaukee 2021, Phoenix 2021) defeated teams from the list. This leads him to question whether Denver, which lacks any of those marquee names, can win. He then examines the Nuggets‑Heat matchup, comparing point guards (Jamal Murray vs. Gabe Vincent), wing players, and front‑court pieces, and acknowledges the Heat’s resilience and destiny narrative. After weighing the matchups, he concludes that Denver is the stronger team, citing Nikola Jokić’s elite status, Denver’s consistent performance all season, and their decisive series closures (sweeping the Lakers, not “messing around” in earlier rounds). He also notes the limited impact of Tyler Herro for Miami. Ultimately, Green predicts the Nuggets will win the Finals in five games, emphasizing respect for the Heat while asserting his confidence in Denver’s championship readiness.
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What's up everybody? It's Draymond Green. Make sure you subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel below so you don't miss any more of this great content going forward. What's up everybody? Welcome back to the Draymond Green Show. Um, this is not quite an episode, but I did promise you all that I was going to get you my Finals prediction. So I wanted to get that to you before the Finals get started. So here we go. Now, As you all know, I'm a little bit long-winded and I can never just be like, bang, bang. So here you have it. But no, honestly, this is a very interesting thing. So with my finals prediction, I kind of had this finals prediction where I'm like, yo, the Nuggets, they're playing really well, blah, blah, blah. Then I went back and forth like, but the Miami Heat, like it just seems destined, like. They were supposed to lose their game against Chicago, and then they just made it happen. And then they were supposed to lose every other series after that, and they just made it happen. And so a part of it feels like destiny, but a part of it also took me to a place that's very interesting, and I want you all to think about. So this could get a little long, so bear with me. Yeah. Not the episode, just this list. So think about this. The guys responsible for all the championships in our life. It's a conversation I was having with a friend. Larry Bird, Magic, Kareem, Isiah/Dumars, Joe Dumars, Michael Jordan, Hakeem the Dream, Kobe, Shaq, LeBron, Dwyane, Steph, Klay, Draymond Green. Liz Skips, Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich, Riles, Pat Riley, Dumars again, Joe Dumars, Steve Kerr. Steve Kerr, 9 championships. 5 as a coach, 4 as a player. Steve Kerr. Then you have the one-offs. Boston in '08, they beat Kobe and Phil, which are a part of this list. Dallas in '11 beat LeBron and D-Wade and Pat Riley, which are a part of this list. Toronto in '19, which beat Steph, Klay, and I. And Steve, which are, which are all a part of this list. And then you got Bucks in 2021, which are not a part of this list, but it's actually a one-off. And then Phoenix, they beat Phoenix. So that is the— that's actually the one which is interesting that no one on this list won but they also didn't beat anyone on this list. All of the one-offs have actually beat teams that are on this list. So I thought this was a very, very, very interesting year. I mean, excuse me, a very, very interesting list, which made me start thinking like, man, Boston may not win. I mean, excuse me, Denver may not win because they don't have anyone on this list. Yeah. 1, 2, 3, 4 one-offs. That's in a lot of years. So the odds are actually not with Denver. So when I was going through this whole thing, I'm like, yo, I actually may not, may need to move off the Denver pick and roll with Miami. Miami's playing well. The destiny seems to be there. They got the guys or the guy who's gotten it done, who's a part of this list. It's hard for me to roll with Denver on this. So then I started to do the matchups and I'm like, all right, at point guard you got Jamal Murray and Gabe Vincent. Miami kind of does the point guard by committee thing. And at the 2, you got KCP versus Max Strus. At the 3, you got Michael Porter Jr. versus— or you can go Max Strus there and you can go Michael Porter Jr. Uh, I mean, you go Caleb Martin at the 2. Like, their positions is kind of all over the place. It's not quite like a thing. They just play basketball. They put basketball players on the court, they play basketball and they win. That's just what it's been. So, you know, I start looking at these matchups. You got Jimmy, Aaron Gordon, you got Bam, you got Nikola, Jokic, Joker. And like, when I looked at the matchups, it's overwhelmingly favored. Denver. But I feel like if you just go and if you just start watching that, you're kind of ignoring like what's been going on and very disrespectful to the Miami Heat, which has been. And so if I'm the Miami Heat, I'm like, yeah, y'all actually all can stay on that side. Like don't switch now. That's the way it's been. It's, but it's been this way, right? Like, You're going through these matchups and all that, and I feel like you just, you gotta be just making a mistake. Like, if you don't feel like you're making a mistake picking against the Miami Heat, like, you don't know basketball. You don't understand competition. If that's what you're doing, if you're just picking against the Miami Heat, you really don't understand competition, and you really, like, think it's luck. Yeah. That's what it is. You actually think it's luck that these guys are doing what they're doing, and it's not luck. It's not luck. So I went through this whole thing, right? I'm like, man, I gotta roll with Denver in 6, but that's just disrespectful. Yeah. It's very disrespectful. So then I'm like, I'm gonna roll with Denver in 5. And the reason I ended up on Denver, I'm gonna tell you why I actually ended up on Denver. Went through the matchups, did the whole thing. Don't wanna disrespect the guys who are on the list. I don't wanna disrespect the Miami Heat and how they've been playing. Here's why I picked Denver. Obviously have been a better team all year. Denver's been one of the best teams from start to finish. I think Denver has the best player in the series. And with all due respect to Jimmy, Jimmy's incredible, been playing incredible. We all can agree Nikola Jokic is on some all-time great, type stuff right now. Oh, I mean, he's constantly getting better. He makes everyone else better. Just playing absolutely incredible. So I got the best player in the series. Miami also is going to incorporate Tyler Herro. And I'm not sure they're going to go, I'm not sure they're going to listen to what I said last podcast, which is, if you need the boost, spark, bring him in, but don't just— and so that's not till game 3 they said like he won't be back soon. So that's really a non-factor. But one key thing that Denver has done that's made me say, but Denver's ready to win a championship, and it's this. They have not fucked around in any of their series. They've had opportunities to close. They closed, they getting it done. They might've lost one of the closeout games to Phoenix maybe, but I'm not even sure they did that. I think it went 2-2 and then they won the next two. So they didn't fuck around. Like, okay, y'all won two at home, cool. Home, coming back to your house, over. Then they swept the Lakers. Then they swept them. Swept like brooms. It's LeBron James. Prior episodes I was talking about the know-how, like having the know-how, knowing how to do it. LeBron James know how to do it. They swept them. Not messing around. And when teams do that, it's like, oh, they focus, they're ready. They ready to win a championship. They're ready to win a championship. They're not messing around with these other teams. They're ready to win a championship. And so I teetered with this whole thing. Denver in 5, Denver in 6, but they ready to win a championship. I got the Nuggets in 5. It's a wrap. Peace. What's up everybody? It's Draymond Green. Make sure you subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel below so you don't miss any more of this great content going forward.
