NBA Finals prediction: How Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo match up vs. Nikola Jokic | Draymond Green Show

In this episode of the Draymond Green Show, Draymond breaks down the 2023 NBA Finals matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. He examines the primary individual battles—Bam Adebayo versus Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler versus Jamal Murray, and the guard‑forward matchups involving Max Strus vs. Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon vs. Butler, and Kyle Lowry (CP3) vs. Butler. Draymond highlights how Bam’s athleticism and ball‑handling can pull Jokic out of the paint, while Jokic will try to exploit his size advantage in the post. He discusses the Heat’s potential defensive assignments, the importance of Caleb Martin’s role guarding Murray, and the impact of Max Strus’s size against Porter Jr.’s shooting. A substantial portion of the conversation focuses on the strategic dilemma of reintegrating Tyler Herro after his injury—whether to slot him into the rotation or use him as a spark‑plug in specific game situations, and how the series score influences that decision. Draymond concludes that the series will likely be decided by the performance of role players on both sides and promises to deliver a final prediction before Game 1.
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What's up everybody? It's Draymond Green. Make sure you subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel below so you don't miss any more of this great content going forward. NBA Finals, Nuggets versus Heat. Some interesting matchups in this one. I think, I mean, obviously Bam starts on Joker. I'm like, last series where AD isn't quite as comfortable out on the floor, like out in space, Bam can guard guards. So with Bam guarding guards, he'll be very comfortable guarding Joker in space. So whereas Joker's advantage was in space in the last series, at the top of the key, in the mid post, actually operating in space, I think that's actually to Bam's advantage this series. Joker's advantage this series against Bam would be to use his size, like get as deep post touches as you can get. You know, trying to use his size and physicality as an advantage versus Bam. Because in space Bam's fast, he's strong, he's athletic. So I think in space Bam can win that. He's not as tall as Joker. He doesn't weigh as much as Joker. Joker plays like, he plays off of contact. He don't necessarily play through contact. He plays off of contact. He looks for contact for rhythm and like, You know, if he's posting you up and you're hitting, you know, and he's backing down and you're using a lot of force, he rolls off, right? Like, so he, he counter— he plays, counteracts off of physicality. And so I think with that, that would then allow him to use his nimbleness, because if Bam is getting super physical to combat the size Now that allows Joker, whereas he's not fast as Bam, moves laterally like Bam. Now that allows, because Bam's probably leaning in to use all of his force, now that allows him to use all of his counters. And so I think that'll be a fun matchup to watch. Um, and then I also think with Bam handling the ball as much as he do, he pulls Joker out from the rim. Yeah. And now you put Joker, they run a lot of handoff stuff with Bam for threes with those guards chasing behind him. Joker's down the floor, that can cause some issues. If they now start running those things and it starts to cause some issues and now Joker starts working up, now you get Bam in the pocket. Bam flourishes in the pocket. So I think, um, Bam can cause some issues with his ball handling and pulling Joker away from the rim and then playmaking.
Yeah.
Out of that. I think that, that will be an advantage that Bam has. Would Miami, he be able to capitalize on that? I think with Jamal Murray, they won't start Jimmy on him. I think there will be times throughout this series where Jimmy will end up on Jamal Murray, but I definitely don't think you start Jimmy on Jamal Murray as that's your adjustment. It'll be interesting to see if they stick with the same starting lineup. Caleb Martin in the starting lineup. He's been playing really well. And quite frankly, that allows him to guard Jamal Murray. So I think we will definitely see some of that. I'll see, see Gabe Vincent guarding KCP and Max Struis on Michael Porter Jr. That's an important matchup and I'll tell you why. Michael Porter Jr. is really important to what the Denver Nuggets does because it's the shooting that they need.
Yeah.
And Michael Porter Jr., most people put small defenders on Michael Porter Jr. They put smaller defenders because he's very jump shot dominant. He sometimes gets to a spot and he just raises up over the smaller defenders. It's easy shot for him. Be that Max Strus is a little bigger in size, I think that helps them with Michael Porter Jr. Because you do have size, he can't just get to his spot and raise up. Max Struess is also a little stronger than most of the smaller guys that end up on Michael Porter Jr. So I think that's actually a very important matchup to watch. Both of those guys shoot the 3. Who will shoot it better? They'll probably guard each other. That'll be an interesting one to watch. I think Jimmy will start on Aaron Gordon, which is, um, which will allow Jimmy to play defense the way he plays, get in the passing lanes, float and roam a little bit. He'll have to be physical with Aaron Gordon, which Jimmy's a very physical guy. And so I think that's another matchup there to watch, how Jimmy's handling the physicality, which Jimmy will handle physicality. That's what Jimmy does. I also think—
Yeah.
But I also, I think on the other end, it'll be interesting to see, but I think KCP will probably start on Jimmy. KCP is a hound, KCP's physical. But maybe you do start, if you're starting Aaron Gordon on Jimmy, see my adjustment would be Aaron Gordon, right? But if you're starting Aaron Gordon on Jimmy and that doesn't work, then you go to KCP. If Jimmy has his confidence rolling, because he got going on Aaron Gordon, now he's going to post KCP. He's going to try to get KCP in there and use, use his shoulder, use his size against KCP. So my adjustment, my, I would rather go KCP and my adjustment be Aaron Gordon, but it'll be interesting to see how they match up with that. Um, one thing interesting about Miami lineup rolling into this NBA Finals is Tyler Herro's coming back.
Yeah.
Now that's a very dicey thing when you've missed the amount of time that Tyler Herro has and you've gotten the rhythm that the guys have gotten into. Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, all the guys off the bench, Caleb Martin, like all of those guys are in rhythm. So if I'm the Miami Heat, some of my friends was asking me like, what do you do with Tyler Herro? Like, do you not bring Tyler Herro back? Uh, what, what, what do you do with Tyler Herro? And I said, um, for me personally, I would bring him back. Like, he's too talented not to bring back, but I wouldn't slot him into rotation. Why wouldn't I slot him into rotation? Well, again, remember all the guys that I just spoke about having a rhythm. I don't want to mess with that rhythm. So what I'm going to save Tyler Hero for is, is when I need, um, a spark. Like, if I need a spark, say we go down 1-0, we go down 2-0, we need a spark. Tyler comes in, he gets it going. That can change everything for you. But if you go Tyler Hero and it doesn't go wrong, I mean, it doesn't go right. So then do you back out of it? And if you back out of it, then when do you go back? Can you go back? Do you go back? Because naturally you're going to be like, well, the guys we were winning with were X, Y, and Z, so now we're going to go to them. But then when do you go back? So that's why I think—
Does the score of the series matter to you for that? Like, if the Heat are down 0-2 versus if it's 1-1, or if they happen to be up 2-0, does that impact—
you're thinking about bringing Tyler Herro back. If you up 2-0, you don't mess with that.
What if it's 1-1?
If you're down 0-2, if you down 0-2, you definitely mess with it. And if it's 1-1, you don't mess with it because 1-1 mean you went on the road and did what you're supposed to do. You went on the road and won a game. You don't go on the road to win 2, although they just did. You go on the road with the idea that we have to get one of these to steal home court advantage. So if you're 1-1, I still don't mess with that. It's like once you get in a desperate situation where you like, yo, we need, we need a boost, we need a shift. And if we can't, if we can't get this boost, let's try Tyler because we know Tyler's instant offense. He can come in the game and get it going. But I just don't think, you mess with these guys' rhythm. Like they just made it to the NBA Finals. You gonna mess with the rhythm now? I personally don't think that's the right thing to do. So suit him up. You're out, you're now, well, one second. Suit him up. You ready to go. You can get in. But I'm not sure when you're going in. Then the question becomes, does Tyler Herro accept that? Because you run into those issues all the time in this league. Does he accept that? If he doesn't accept that, number one, it's just kind of tough not to accept that. You're in the NBA Finals, man. You gotta do what you have to do to win the game. Yeah. So for you, stay ready. Stay ready. So I hope Tyler Herro accepts that. I hope that's what the Miami do, the Miami Heat do, because I think that's what gives them the best chance of winning. You've rode this far with the guys you've been rolling with. You don't reward those guys for helping you get to the NBA Finals with, oh, by the way, your minutes are getting cut short because we're now in the NBA Finals, going to bring Tyler Herro back. Which is cutting into your minutes. No, you bring Hero back if stuff goes wrong. Because at the end of the day, Tyler Hero's a huge reason why you are where you are. Although he hasn't been available for a lot of the playoffs, he's a huge reason why you are where you are. Brother, you still committed. I mean, you still produced and added value to us winning this championship. Without you, we would not be here. And I hope he can understand that. Sometimes it's hard for guys to understand that, let alone younger guys. But I hope he understand that. And, you know, in winning a championship, there are times where people have to sacrifice. And if you can't sacrifice, you don't win. And I think that is the Miami Heat sacrifice that they're gonna have to make. That's where things get dicey, that's where lines get blurred, and that's where you're gonna need the sacrifice. And it'll be important for Tyler Herro to do that. Miami, he have a winning culture. I think they are more than capable of having those tough conversations. And what's understood is understood there. So I think it all works out in the end. I really expect a big series from Draymond Green. I really expect a big series from Joker. Before we get outta here, I think the thing that makes this series more interesting than most people would think is gonna be is that both teams' role players have played extremely well. Which role players will play better is that we'll see. But both teams' role players leading up to this have played really well, and the team role players that plays better will ultimately, um, will ultimately be the one who takes this series. I am, quite frankly, I'm still like working through this and trying to figure it all out and like looking at these different matchups and stuff. So I'm not quite sure yet who I'm ready to go with. To win this series, because I'm still dissecting and looking at this thing and that thing. Like, there's some things for me to look at and like possible adjustments. Like, I haven't gotten an opportunity to like look at, okay, so if this happens, this adjustment needs to happen. And like the chess match that goes on that can affect this series, um, I haven't necessarily gotten that opportunity yet. So, uh, whether— I don't think we'll do another pod before game 1. Um, and so if we don't, which I'm almost certain we won't, uh, I will make sure I get you all a prediction on who I think will win this series, even if it just have to go on Draymond's show Instagram. Uh, it just be a social hit. I'll make sure I get you all a prediction before the series start. Mark my word, I'm a man of it. I got you. Until next time. Congratulations to the Miami Heat. Congratulations to the Denver Nuggets on advancing to the NBA Finals. Boston Celtics fans, especially those of you that are in that arena. Until next time. Until next time. That's a wrap. Peace. What's up everybody? It's Draymond Green. Make sure you subscribe to The Volume's YouTube channel below so you don't miss any more of this great content going forward.
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