Suns-Mavericks & Heat-76ers predictions + Celtics-Bucks breakdown | Draymond Green Show

In this episode of The Draymond Green Show, Draymond Green and co‑host Jackson dissect recent playoff action and preview upcoming series. Green opens with a detailed analysis of the Celtics‑Bucks Game 1, highlighting Milwaukee’s paint‑protecting defense, the impact of low shooting percentages from Giannis and Jrue Holiday, and the importance of three‑point attempts from role players like Grant Williams and Al Horford. He evaluates the series outlook, predicting a six‑ or seven‑game battle and noting the effect of Khris Middleton’s injury. The conversation then shifts to the Suns‑Mavericks matchup, where Green breaks down “game‑within‑a‑game” defender assignments (e.g., Reggie Bullock vs. Chris Paul) and ultimately backs the underdog Mavericks, citing pressure dynamics. Next, Green assesses the Heat‑76ers series, discussing key injuries (Embiid, Lowry, Butler) and predicts a Heat win in five games. The show also fielded fan questions: Green explains his preference for moderate playoff rest periods, shares his halftime motivational speech that sparked a win, and humorously details how team music control is decided, crediting James Wiseman’s eclectic taste but ultimately deferring to veteran preferences. Throughout, Green blends tactical basketball insight with personal anecdotes, offering both strategic predictions and behind‑the‑scenes perspectives.
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What's up everybody? It's Draymond Green. Make sure you subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel below so you don't miss any more of this great content going forward. Celtics and Bucks. I actually had to go back and watch that game. As you know, I was getting ready, as the game was starting was my bus time and then preparation for our game. So I didn't have a chance to watch it. And I had to go back and watch that game And what I took away from that game immediately, I mean, I could see it in the first 4 possessions of the game, is Milwaukee— Milwaukee is actually a team that will give up 3-point shots. Like, if you look at their stats during the regular season, Milwaukee will give up 3-point shots. Their thing is to protect the paint. And that was on full display with 7 exclamation marks last night. They were protecting the paint. They said Jalen Brown and Jayson Tatum will not beat us. Grant Williams is gonna have to beat us. Al Horford's gonna have to beat us. Marcus Smart's gonna have to beat us. Robert Williams is gonna have to beat us. Their defense on Jayson Tatum looked a lot like Boston defense in the previous series on Kevin Durant. Multiple bodies throwing at him, very physical and bumping. And as you can see, I think the Celtics scored 98 points and—
89, even worse.
I'm sorry, oh, I flipped it around. 89 points. And I mean, that's a very, very, very, you know, we all talk about Boston's defense, but that is a very high-powered offense as well. And to score 89 points, That's some incredible defense. To also score 89 points while Giannis shoots a terrible percentage, while Drew shoots a terrible percentage, that means that when you're shooting terrible percentage like that, you get the rebound, you run. That creates transition opportunities. Their transition defense was stellar. I saw a couple times where it looked like Jayson Tatum would easily get a bucket Guys come flying around from everywhere and made it tough. Now, Milwaukee, my thing with that series is, if I'm Milwaukee, I leave that game saying, "What's the likelihood that Giannis is gonna shoot 9 for 25? What is the likelihood that Jason, that Jrue Holiday is going to shoot 5 for 20?" Yeah.
8 for 20.
8 for 20. What's the likelihood of that? Now, if I'm Milwaukee, that's what I'm thinking. If I'm Boston, I think I hang my hat on defense. Jrue Holiday will shoot 8 for 20 again. Giannis will shoot 9 for 25 again. And Jason Tatum won't shoot this poorly again. And Jaylen Brown won't shoot 2 for 15 again. And so, if you're both teams, you leave the game— I think if I'm Milwaukee, I leave the game feeling a little bit better. But if you're Boston, you still leave the game feeling semi-good. But you also have to be realistic that in guarding great players, you're just not always going to shut them down. So at some point, Giannis, you're gonna have a couple turnovers, Giannis is gonna get dunks that may get them going, right? And so that series, I think it's probably gonna go 6 or 7, but it, I mean, Milwaukee to go steal one on the road without Khris Middleton, you know, it's already been announced that Khris Middleton will be out this series. You go steal one on the road, you got the opportunity A, to go in and get greedy tomorrow, but to go home and just take care of home court advantage and win 2 games at home, I mean, that can really put you in a great position. So I love the position that Milwaukee is in. I think they're doing an incredible job. Well, they did an incredible job last night. And I don't expect that defense to change. That is a championship ball club that know what it takes to win. And one thing that championship ball clubs do is they stick to their game plan. And like I said, their game plan was evident. Grant Williams shot 45% from 3 this year. Grant Williams had several 3-point attempts and no one was near him. Al Horford had several 3-point attempts, no one was near him. I think within the first 4 possessions that Boston had, it was 2, 3-point attempts by Al Horford and a drive middle and a one-foot fallaway by Al Horford. And if I'm Mike Budenholzer, if I'm Giannis, if I'm Jrue Holiday, I'm saying kudos. This is exactly what we want. We want Al Horford to beat us on offense. We know Jayson Tatum can beat us on offense. We know Draymond Green can beat us on offense. So— But the Bucks executed their game well, their game plan well. But that series, I can see that series going 6 or 7. Ultimately, I can't, I cannot, I think Boston has a legitimate chance of winning the series. I think Boston is a very, very, very good ball club. But for me personally, I would be a little worried leaving that game if I am Boston, just because of the way it played out. But we'll see. We'll figure that out tomorrow. Predictions on the Suns-Mavs. This won't be a cakewalk for the Suns. I think, I mean, the Mavericks have a very good team. They're playing really well and they have Luka Dončić. And anytime you have a player like that on the floor and he's on your squad, you always have a chance of winning the game. And so, you know, D-Book is still coming back from a hamstring injury. I don't expect him to be 100%, he's probably more like 65, 70%. Dorian Finney-Smith is a ball hawk. Now, here's something to watch. I wanna— in doing this show, this Draymond Green Show, one thing— or when I'm doing other, you know, TNT or— I wanna teach the game of basketball, and I wanna teach people how to watch the game of basketball. And you have to learn how to, if you don't already, you have to learn the game within the game. And one game within the game is Reggie Bullock is an incredible, incredible wing defender. He's a very good defender, has great length, is a good athlete. But CP is Reggie Bullock's big homie.
Yeah.
That's a game within a game. Because now you talk about your matchups if you're Dallas, and which means Luka probably will guard Jay Crowder, okay? So now you have Jalen Brunson who will probably guard Mikal Bridges, okay? Which means Dwight Powell obviously on DeAndre Ayton. Which means you have to figure out, do you wanna go Finney-Smith on Book and Reggie on Chris Paul? Or do you wanna flip that? The logical answer would be to put Finney-Smith on Book because he's stronger. Book will take you to the post. Book get there, he bump you. That would be the logical answer. Reggie got length, he can fly around the perimeter with CP. That would be the logical answer. But then when you take the game, when you take the game within the game into consideration, you have to ask yourself, with their personal relationship and CP being his big homie, how does he really affect CP? And is CP fazed by him at all? Because that is a real thing. And so I'm interested in seeing how that matchup plays out. I think they'll start the logical way. But I'm interested in seeing if there will need to be a change or not. In saying that, game 1, I am taking the Phoenix Suns to win the game. Over the series, it's a tough one because this Mavs team, I'm telling you, this Mavs team is not a pushover by any stretch of the imagination. No. And so I'm gonna admit, this is a tough one for me to pick. It's a pick 'em. I feel like it's a coin flip. Both teams are really good. Do I have to pick one? If I have to pick one—
You have to pick one.
I'mma pick the underdog. I'mma go with the Mavs. No underdog has won a series yet. At some point, an underdog has to win a series, right? I'mma go with the Mavs, but God, that's gonna be a tough series. I'm really only going with the Mavs because they're the underdog, by the way. 'Cause that series, I mean, God, that's gonna be a really good series. I gotta go with the Mavs. I gotta roll with the underdog. And you gotta roll with the underdog. Some go with the Mavs. And the reality is that there's pressure on the Suns. There's no pressure on the Mavs. They have zero pressure. If they lose, they supposed to lose. The Suns supposed to win. They've been the best team all year. And so you have to take that pressure into account as well. CP's not fazed by pressure, neither is Deep Book. So I don't expect the pressure to break the Suns, but it is pressure. Pressure is pressure. —and you gotta deal with it. I guess I'mma go with the Mavs. And then you have Heat Sixers, a Joel Embiid-less Sixers. If Joel Embiid is out— see, here's the thing people aren't talking about though. Kyle Lowry is also out, and Jimmy Butler is nursing a knee injury, knee soreness.
He is listed as available to play tonight.
Jimmy is.
Jimmy is, Jimmy is. Kyle Lowry time.
I was watching on the Miami Heat, I think, Instagram account yesterday. Jimmy was shooting corner threes. He hit 12 out of 13. But he was gingerly pushing off and landing on that knee. And so that was something I'm like, ah, that changes things. Not having Kyle Lowry, that changes things. Because what that does is it puts you back with Jimmy as the player that he was last year, which is more of a facilitator. With Kyle Lowry though, Kyle Lowry can get everyone else involved. But Jimmy, but Jimmy, I think Jimmy is much better playing the way he plays right now, which is I'm going to get it. I can facilitate, so I'm still gonna make the right play, but I'm going to get it. And with Kyle out, that moves Jimmy back to that position. And that's something to watch. Now, the Sixers do have Joel out.
Mm-hmm.
And they'll have DeAndre and Paul Reed and possibly Georges Niang and, I mean, possibly Tobias, I don't know. They'll have those guys battling with Bam out of Bayou. And that is tough. Especially, see, if it's Joel having to guard Bam on one end, at least Joel's beating him up on the other end and he's having to guard Joel and lose some, you know, you battling with him, it, you know, it tires you out, it wears a guy down. None of those guys Bam have to even worry about except boxing out. And so that right there is going to help Bam even more. Bam already a great player. And now he doesn't have to deal with Joel Embiid. I got the Heat in 5. I'm taking the Heat in 5. That's my analysis on our game, on the rest of the games going on in the NBA playoffs. Before we get out of here, we'd love to do some mailbag questions. As you know, #TheDraymondGreenShow on Twitter. Jackson will find great questions, he will bring them here, and we will talk to you. We'll answer your question and give you our thoughts. Jackson, you got some questions for me?
I do. Let's start with from Bradley Williams @B_Rad50. Do you like having a short rest period between playoff series or a longer rest period? I think this question's interesting in terms of between games too, like you only have one game off between games 1 and 2, then you have Wednesday, Thursday, Friday off between 2 and 3. So do you like a longer rest period to let the body rest or a shorter period to sort of keep it, keep it rolling?
Honestly, as a guy who played in the playoffs since my rookie year, obviously missed the last 2, but now, you know, I gotta keep my rhythm, I gotta keep my conditioning, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Now, I'm in the 10th year of my career, and you know how to keep your rhythm. You know how to keep your conditioning. And so just from a mental aspect, I always tell people, a basketball game doesn't start when we walk on the court, or even when we leave the hotel. A basketball game starts the moment you wake up on the day of the game. And really the night before, the day before, you're like prepping and you're getting— Thank you. Things you need to feel good tomorrow. And so just the stress alone of a game day is brutal. It's brutal. I always tell people, they say, "I could play in the NBA." The first thing I'll say to them is absolutely nothing about their skill, how they match up against a guy. I'll tell a guy in a heartbeat, "You couldn't handle the stress of a game day." Like, let alone— Yeah. —actually going out there and playing in the game. The stress of a game day. And so I think for us at this point, I'm in year 10, Klay's in year 11, Steph's in year 13, Andre's in year 17. I think for us at this point, you appreciate the rest. Now, once you get in the game, it does— there is a little adjustment period, but it's small. Mm-hmm. And so you appreciate the rest. Now, in saying that, too much rest could be an issue. Like, I was worried that if we swept Denver, we'd be off for 9 days. That's a long time with no games. And you come and play a team that had a game 2 nights before. That's a long time. But, you know, you talking 5— 4 to 6 day break, we'll accept that with open arms anytime we can get it. Yeah.
Next one. You sort of talked about this a little bit earlier, but I'm curious for a more in-depth answer. From Nick Charlton Perrin @lebonjames007, what did you say to the team at halftime?
I told the guys at halftime, I said, go out and take this game. That'll be a gut punch. You know, this is a game we're not supposed to win. We're not playing our best basketball. We're not shooting well. Klay Thompson with 3 fouls, Gary Payton with 3 fouls, Steph Curry with 3 fouls, I'm ejected. Go out and take the game. Go take their punch, throw punches back, and just go steal the game. Win the game however we need to win the game. It's not gonna be pretty. Just go win the game. And guys, they did it. And it was beautiful to see. And there was so many things and people that contributed to that win. And I said earlier, I think that puts us in a great position for this series. Draymond Green.
All right, last one, a little bit of a lighter note from DJ Hella Yella @djhellayella. How do y'all decide who gets to control the music in team settings?
James Wiseman actually is a very good, like James Wiseman, he's all over the place, which is great. Like James Wiseman will give you some Lil Baby and Gunna. James Wiseman will give you some, N.W.A., James— the kid loves music, which is why he, you know, he records his own music. He make beats. The kid loves music. And I mean, he's all over the place. And I don't— like I said, I don't mean that in a bad way. I mean, he can check so many boxes. Like, James will walk up to a guy like, "Hey, Draymond, what you feeling today? Wanna go here, you wanna go there, you da da da?" And he will take you there. So James Wiseman does a really good job. Ultimately, it's gonna be controlled by the vets. Like, whoever the vets say, "We don't wanna hear that, we wanna hear this," or, "We don't want you on the aux, we want him on the aux," then that's what's gonna happen. So ultimately, the vets decide. But James Wiseman does an incredible job.
Mm-hmm.
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