In this YouTube video, Roman Ceccardi reviews his recent successful Bitcoin trade and outlines a new high‑probability trade for the current day. He begins by recapping his 75% win‑rate across roughly 70 YouTube calls, attributing recent success to correctly reading weekly bias and applying his "Power of 3" (PO3) framework. He explains PO3: a bearish weekly candle suggests a move toward the prior weekly low, and any price rise above the weekly open presents a short‑sell opportunity. He predicts that high‑impact USD news events (red‑folder) typically trigger strong moves, with Monday‑Tuesday acting as fake‑outs and Wednesday as the likely expansion day. He then shifts to the daily and hourly charts, identifying a bearish daily bias reinforced by two consecutive CSD (candle‑size‑down) formations. An hourly bearish order block between roughly $81,550 and $82,000 is highlighted as the entry zone. The trade plan is: enter on a retracement into the order block, target $80,100 (or the next liquidity zone), and invalidate if an hourly candle closes above $82,000, which would signal a bullish reversal. He discusses risk‑reward (2R) and the concept of “momentum trading,” emphasizing that entering a trend after it has begun can be more profitable and less risky than early entry. Ceccardi also shares statistical observations about equal lows being swept before major moves, arguing that high‑probability actions (like taking the sweep) should be favored. He concludes by promoting his paid training program, citing a 70% student success rate and limited one‑on‑one slots, and invites viewers to click the link in the description.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Really hope you watched the video yesterday and managed to get a good trade out of it, cuz I know I sure did. And I called it on X as it happened, full TP got hit. And yeah, definitely yesterday's video was pretty spot on in a sense where I was predicting a pretty big move to come yesterday. The fact that we were able to read that, you know, the market was going to go towards the downside more likely than not, and we kind of take advantage of that. And that puts us up to like, what, 47 or 48 wins out of around 70 That is just going to add to the overall 75% win rate of, you know, the success rate of all of these YouTube trade calls that I've been making for the past 2 years. So hopefully today we're going to be able to replicate that. And today I'm just going to break down the exact trade that I'm looking at for Bitcoin, because one thing for sure is that today we're going to get another news event, which is fantastic because most of the time when we get red for the high-impact news events on the USD is when we're going to get the best trades on this system. So yeah, without further ado, let's get into it. Let's just dive right into it. And yeah, just to kick things off, we're going to start off on the weekly time frame to just point out the fact that— so one of the biggest reasons why I was able to get the overall direction for this week so kind of accurately is because I understand how to read the weekly bias and I understand how PO3 works. PO3 basically dictates that first of all, if the previous weekly candle closes bearish, then chances are the next week will tend to make a move towards the previous weekly low, right? So we already know that. But second of all, understanding that still does not kind of give you a framework to read how the price action is going to play out. And that's when we get into the Power of 3. And Power of 3 dictates that if you have a bearish bias, anytime you go above the candle open is an opportunity for you to sell high and then to take profit lower. So this is exactly what's happened. Like what we just saw yesterday and over the last couple of days is an exact representation of how a weekly Power of 3 plays out. I talk about this concept every single week. It's a this concept that I've been using consistently to kind of, you know, predict moves almost a bit like a crystal ball, especially like not just predicting the overall move, but also understanding like when these moves are likely to happen, especially when you pair them together with the understanding of like, hey, the biggest price movements are always going to come when there is red folder high impact news on USD. And if you understand the PO3 and you understand the weekly bias, then you can kind of anticipate that, hey, Monday and Tuesday are probably going to be kind of like fake out days, right? They're just going to set up for a bigger move later on down the line. And then the biggest moves are going to come, like the true expansion, is going to come likely on Wednesday, right? Wednesday is likely going to where this happens. And at the moment, Thursday, today we have rate for the high impact news. So who knows, the move might continue. And in fact, I am counting on the move to continue. But for now, let me just get into the overall daily bias for today. And at the moment, that is pointing towards the downside. Now today can be a little bit more complicated than yesterday, where yesterday was relatively straightforward. Today is a little bit tougher, right? Because technically speaking, our weekly objective has already been met in the sense where when you have a bearish weekly bias the target, right? What this actually means is not that, okay, this week is just going to be fully bearish all 5 days in a row. It's just we're going to make some sort of bearish move and we're going to target the previous weekly low, more likely than not. Now, once this gets taken, everything else is up to discretion and we just have to read the markets if, you know, there is more continuation likely to come. Now, in terms of more continuation coming, I will bring my eyes towards this level right here because at the moment I do not anticipate price to kind of do a full reversal and go back towards a bullish trend Before taking out these lows. Now, the reason why I'm anticipating this is because this currently are relatively equal lows, where usually in the markets when you see any relatively equal levels, like for example over here, it eventually comes to, you know, take it out. Now, I know this is not exactly the best example for me to show you this because like it's been a couple of weeks, like it's been a few weeks since these highs were formed and we have, you know, gone down since. So there is a possibility that we might just leave this behind and go towards the upside. But here's the part that I want you guys to understand here. Statistically speaking, whenever you do get relatively equal levels, Statistically speaking, they tend to get swept first before going for the major move. Now, this doesn't mean that it's always going to be a 100% guaranteed rate, but assuming that this is like an 80% chance of happening versus a 20% chance that it doesn't get taken out before price moves, then this is still a statistically high probability outcome that you should aim for. One of the other things that you need to understand about trading is that so much of your success as a trader boils down to how many of the high probability actions can you take over time compared to the low probability actions. The more you can just stick to doing this over the long run, That's how you gain success. Right now, I do think that sweeping out the lows is high, like it's higher probability compared to not sweeping out the lows before pumping. Now, does it mean that this is impossible to happen? No, it just means that it's less likely to happen. So in today's case, the trade that I'll be looking at is going to be pretty straightforward. Right now, we're already operating with a bearish daily bias. Right now, we're operating with an overall daily bearish order flow where we have had 2 consecutive CSDs. So today, the playbook is pretty simple, right? Retrace into the CSD line, and then we make a move down towards $80,000. The exact level is $80,100. And in terms of the hourly chart, let's take a look. Now the beautiful part about today is that the hourly chart is also already in bearish order flow, which means the playbook today is also super simple. We have a bearish order block over here that we can take advantage of. Price is currently retracing back into it already. The trigger for today is that you do not want price to close above $82,000. Now if you get an hourly candle close above $82,000, this means that this bearish order block right here has been disrespected and you're potentially going for a bullish CSD, and price is gonna in fact, you know, go for the lower probability outcome and just start reversing towards the upside. So that is the invalidation trigger. So what is the actual trigger then? Well, where price currently is, is already good enough to get in because like you're already in bearish order flow. But hey, by the time you guys watch this video, chances are like the hour before news to the hour after news is when you're going to make another retracement back into this order block right here, which starts— and I hear you guys in the comments that say that you're watching this from your phone, so you can't exactly see the numbers on the screen. So like I try to make an effort to read them out every single time. Just got to give me a bit of time, you know. So this order block starts at $81,550. And it ends at $81,000, or basically like $82,000. So if you draw this on a 1-hourly chart, this is how you end up with that order block. So you're going to be looking for a retracement back into this order block and then for a move towards the downside, where at some point you're probably going to jump into a trade that will look something along the lines of this. Just making sure that whatever target you do set, you could either go for this max liquidity target or you could just go for 2R. Like for example, for me yesterday, I just went for a little 2R trade. My target was here. It's not exactly at a liquidity level per se. It was just like, hey, I'm just going for a 2R. Oh no, actually, It was at the liquidity level. Clearly forgot about this. Yeah, it was just the previous daily low. So this ended up playing out, which is fantastic. And today, similar situation. You're just looking for— you're basically just jumping into this trend that is already confirmed, and you're hopping onto the train that has already left the station. You're getting on at a later station, but then just getting off somewhere close to the destination. And believe it or not, this is actually a pretty high probability trading strategy. But contrary to popular belief, you do not ever need to jump into the trade at the moment where the trend begins, or you never have to be early to a trade. A lot of the Sometimes you can make way more money jumping in late to trends. This is something known as momentum trading. And if Bitcoin ends up getting invalidated and we do not get a trade, I highly urge you to take a look at other charts. Like, for example, NASDAQ had an absolute banger yesterday. Although when I say absolute banger, but like I could have had way more profit on this one. But still, like NASDAQ, just taking a look at the moment, like this is exactly what I mean of a momentum trade, right? Yesterday, the big dump actually happens from here. I entered the market around here. Now, just because I enter here doesn't mean I'm late, because as long as you have clear liquidity target that price hasn't yet hit, then you can always just jump in in the middle of a trend, right? Jumping in after the train has left the station and then getting off at some point. I was basically in and out of the trade within the span of an hour. And a lot of the times what happens when you do this is that you have the advantage of having the trend already confirmed where price is clearly bearish, right? No other way that you can put this. Price is bearish and very clearly bearish and very likely to continue to be bearish. Whereas if you're kind of getting in at the start of the trend, I want you to just notice how many potential times that you could have gotten stopped out where your price was starting to show bearishness, but then eventually came to stop you out before, you know, finally the trend confirms. The beautiful thing about momentum trading is that you're coming in when that trend question is already out of your, you know, is already out of consideration. You are very certain as to what the trend is, and you just have to, you know, follow the momentum. It's a very counterintuitive strategy. A lot of people tend to struggle with this, and yet Some of the highest performing students within our program where they are consistent 7-figure traders and consistently bringing like $10K to $20K a month, they are all huge proponents of momentum trading because it just removes so much of the guesswork. And what I often find is that they have a higher win rate. The trades end up playing out in very little time. It's pretty clean usually, and just overall it's very profitable. Which, by the way, if you'd like to learn not only momentum trading but all of the secret sauce behind this system that you've been seeing that clearly works for me and quite a lot of our students, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. When I say a lot of our students, what I really mean is like 70% of the people that end up working with us end up achieving the result that we promise on the front of the page. So that's a success rate that no other trading program can ever claim. And the only reason we're able to achieve it is because we truly care about student success. And also the fact that we work with everyone one-on-one, like there is a limited amount of people that we can take on every month because of this kind of model that we use. But hey, either way, if you're interested, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao, ciao. Ciao, ciao.
