In this video Roman Ceccardi outlines his live Bitcoin trade plan for the day, emphasizing the importance of patience after a period of no trades. He cites a self‑reported 75% win rate across more than 200 daily YouTube trade calls to build credibility. Ceccardi first explains that recognizing unsuitable market conditions is as crucial as spotting good setups, referencing yesterday’s lack of quality opportunities. He then conducts a multi‑timeframe analysis: a bullish daily bias contrasted with a bearish weekly bias that targets the previous weekly low around $80,360. Lower‑timeframe signals (5‑minute London session sweeping the Asia high and a convincing change of delivery) suggest downside pressure, but the decisive factor is the upcoming USD news at 8:30 AM. He defines a high‑impact trading window from 7:30 AM to 9:30 AM. Two mutually exclusive scenarios are presented: (1) If the hourly candle closes below 83,065, an hourly change of supply‑demand (CSD) validates a short trade, with a primary target at the weekly low ($80,350‑$80,360) and a partial profit at $81,000. (2) If the hourly candle does not close below that level (only a wick), a bullish CSD from the previous day suggests a liquidity sweep around $83,070‑$83,000, leading to an upside move toward $84,000 and potentially up to the $87,000 range. Ceccardi notes he will post the exact trade on X and conduct a live trading session with his program’s students. He also promotes a trading‑psychology masterclass for viewers seeking deeper education.
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What's good, guys? In today's video, I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm looking at for Bitcoin for today. And let me tell you, patience is probably going to pay because we have been waiting and going for no trades for the last couple of days. But now it looks like that patience is about to pay off because today's looking super clean. I'm going to break down the exact trade. Right before I get into it though, just understand that I have been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these daily YouTube trade calls that I've been making for the last 2 years or so. And I have a 75% win rate across like 200+ trades. So chances are I tend to be right a little bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. So if that gives you a good reason to listen, then yeah, Let's get into it. Now, we're going to kick things off by mentioning yesterday briefly. And yesterday, I think, was a huge example of, you know, people oftentimes talk about, oh yeah, you need to know what you need to look for for a trade. But you know what's on the flip side of the equation that people don't really talk about? It's to know what you are not looking for, right? It's just as important to identify bad market conditions for your system as it is to identify good market conditions for your system. Just to give you an example, yesterday I basically just mentioned like, yeah, you know what? I'm just going to stay out of it. Even if we were to dump, it's likely not going to be a big dump. And yeah, case in point, check it out yesterday. If even if you were staring at the markets for like 3 straight hours, you wouldn't have had much of an opportunity, or you wouldn't have had much of a quality opportunity, let's put it that way, because you just ultimately ended up chopping around. And those are not market conditions that are fit for trading. So yeah, if you want to learn this lesson, feel free to go check out the first few minutes of yesterday's video. That's super informative and just walking through the psychology of how to stay out of the markets when you're supposed to. But recently I also posted an absolute masterclass when it comes to trading psychology. So feel free to check it out. And the feedback from people that have already watched it has been amazing so far. I'd highly recommend you check it out after this video. But for now, let's get into the trade setup for today. And we're going to kick things off at the daily timeframe because so far we are looking at a potential bullish daily bias. But in terms of the weekly bias, remember, we are actually looking for like some sort of bearish movement towards the downside and at the very least 2 Target the previous weekly low, $80,360. Now that is the previous weekly low, and the reason why we are expecting that to be the target is because of the last week's candle close, right? It's bearish, which means chances are we are going to see some sort of a true expansion move towards the downside. Now the only issue with that is that in terms of the lower time frames at the moment, like if you see this line that I drew out yesterday, basically this is still valid in the sense where you still have a high here, you still have another high here, and you still have another high here, even though well this has been taken actually, but you still have a couple of relatively equal highs. But At the very moment, price is about to, you know, make a move towards the downside. Not only that, but if you take a look at the 5-minute timeframe, you can see that London has actually swept out the Asia high, followed by an immediate change in state of delivery. There's a very convincing change in state of delivery, actually. So technically speaking, the lower timeframes are already pointing towards the downside. So I think today may be one of those days where we ignore the daily bias and we actually go look for shorts instead. But that only hinges on one condition, and that condition is going to be USD news. Today we're going to get USD news at 8:30 AM, which means that ideally your best trading window for today is going to be like starting from 7:30 and going all the way up to 9:30, basically the hour before news to the hour after news. And your trade today is literally going to depend on what price is doing heading into that news window. And just to explain what I mean, this is a phrase that I like to say often, is that certain behaviors of price happening at certain key timings are going to have drastically different success rates. Assuming that news events are your absolute top tier, like S-tier kind of Timing window, then anything that happens in terms of price action around those news windows should hold the maximum amount of weight. So the way this is going to work is there's only two things that I'm going to be looking out for here. First of which is a candle close on a one hourly time frame at 83,065. So if you get a candle closure beneath this level, it shows you that we have an undeniable hourly CSD, at which point you can look for a retracement back into this entire new order block that gets formed and price to head towards the downside. So this is scenario number one. This will be this would be against the overall daily bias. But if this happens at around that news window, basically like by the time 8:30 rolls around, you've already gotten the candle close beneath this level and you can see price kind of slightly retracing back into this level, then at that point, like, yeah, you're going to be good to go for a trade. And this, by the way, this first scenario here is in line with what I'm seeing here on the lower time frames. Just basically London seems to have manipulated above the Asia highs, and at the moment you seem to be reaching for the lows. And of course, in the event that this trade kind of plays out, your immediate target is going to go towards the previous weekly low, as I've already mentioned. That is $80,350 or $80, $360. You can also take partial profits at $81,000. But either way, chances are we're going to get a pretty decent move for today. Now, as for the direction, is up is to be determined by the markets, right? So now we go into the bullish argument, because after all, today we technically have a bullish daily bias, plus the fact that we have relatively equal highs up top right there, which means that there is a possibility that price could maybe just sweep out some lows and just go straight for a pump. This leads me on to the second scenario that I would look for in terms of the lower time frame at the moment. I want you to pay attention to how the order flow is Looking like, for example, on the one hourly timeframe, you already had a bullish CSD from yesterday. This is a very convincing bullish CSD, by the way. So chances are, if you don't get that hourly candle close underneath that level, then you're probably just going to go for a bit of a liquidity sweep at either. What is this level? Eighty three thousand oh seventy and or eighty three thousand dollars flat. So you're going to go for a liquidity sweep at either one of these levels, and then you're going to just you know straight up go for those relative equal highs that are located up top over here. So the way this is going to work is that by the time eight thirty rolls around, you just get you do not get a candle close beneath this level, but instead you get a wick down below, but then the candle closure does not happen, chances are you're going to go towards the upside and you're going to be able to take a trade towards $84,000. But in terms of the exact trade that I'm going to be calling for today, just understand that I will be posting that onto X. After all, I do have a live trading call with all of the students inside my program later where I'm going to live trade the markets together with them. So yeah, whatever trades that I do take, I'll definitely post it on X. But right now there's 2 scenarios that can happen, and both situations honestly just depend on how price action is printing as you get closer to the news event. And just on a On another note, there is a high likelihood as well if we eventually get a super aggressive move today, which, you know, I can't predict volatility, but at least we'll have— at least we can prepare beforehand. At least we can prepare beforehand. Price is likely, like, if in the event that you go really, really bullish, you could go a lot higher compared to $84,000. But otherwise, at this point, you can go a lot higher compared to $84,000. Like, there are also relatively equal highs all the way up at $87,000 range. So yeah, in the event that it happens, like, feel free to just hold your trade and, you know, get a big win out of it. By the way, today and tomorrow are the biggest news events that we've had over the last couple of weeks, so let's try to take advantage of it and make good money. Again, I'll be posting my trades all on X, but at this point, if you'd like to check out that psychology masterclass that I mentioned at the start of the video, click here. Ciao ciao!
