In this segment of the My First Million podcast, host Sam Parr and a guest (Speaker B) evaluate four hypothetical startup ideas—Cron (a quick‑impulse‑buy SaaS tool), Arden Res (a fine‑art marketplace), Carrot, and Lilia—and decide which one would merit a $100,000 investment. Sam argues for Cron, highlighting its low capital needs, fast path to $100k monthly revenue, high churn but large market size, and potential to scale to $10‑30 million ARR within a few years. Speaker B dismisses Cron and Lilia, instead championing Arden Res for its overlooked marketplace model and the untapped tech potential in fine‑art sales, even if it may end up a loss. They also discuss acquisition precedents (e.g., Sunrise Calendar, Google Inbox) to illustrate exit possibilities for productivity‑focused tools. The conversation then shifts to an entirely different opportunity—Duffel, a college‑campus micro‑delivery service that mirrors GoPuff’s ultra‑local, high‑frequency model. Speaker B outlines Duffel’s unit economics (average $16 cart, $5 margin per delivery), geographic concentration, and the massive $163 million revenue and $866 million funding GoPuff has achieved, suggesting a replicable, capital‑light growth path. Throughout, the hosts weigh market size, capital efficiency, churn, and exit potential as the core criteria for allocating a $100k seed investment.
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Okay, so we talked about Kron, Art and Res, Carrot, and Lil— Lilia. That's a stupid name. You have $100,000 to put in one. Which one you gonna do? Hmm.
All right, let's take a look. Um, it's not gonna be Kron for me. I'm also going to say it's not going to be Lilia because even though I like the market for all those reasons we mentioned, I don't know why this is the winning company. I don't see them doing anything special.
And this is the— what a lot— what we have to tell people is once you meet the person behind it, that could totally change your decision.
For sure, right?
This is not based on the people at all because you could meet someone and you're like, they're so formidable that it's like, dude, I don't care what you sell, I'm in.
Right. I think if I was going to do this, if I was going to— this is crazy to me that I'm even saying this, but I think I would be putting it in Arden Res. I think I would put it in because I think if they can get the marketplace spun up, it's going to be valuable. And I think that this is an overlooked marketplace, so overlooked market. So I like that it's a marketplace as a model, not lead gen, not, not anything else. And then on the other side, I think if they can get I have a feeling that the sort of fine art marketplace has not been affected by technology in the same way as all the other industries have. And so I'm curious to see what they can do. So I would bet the $100K on Art in Res, and I would write it off as a loss because I would assume it's going to be a loss.
All right. I would do, uh, Cron.
Okay. Why Cron?
Um, I just think it's, it's super easy for them to be in default survival. It's so easy. Like, I think that they can get to like $100,000 in monthly revenue, like really fast. I think their churn might be high, but I think that it's just because of the market size and because it's an impulse buy. And if this just saves you a little bit of time, I just think that they can get to $10 or $30 million in recurring revenue inside 3 or 4 years with very little capital. And so they're default alive pretty easily. And depending on how creative the entrepreneurs are, they could expand beyond that. Um, so I'm gonna go with Cron.
Okay, I like that.
I don't know who would buy them though.
Uh, well, like for example, Microsoft bought Sunrise Calendar, I believe, uh, it was— it was a calendar that people really liked. It was a pro, uh, professional calendar, and, uh, they got bought for I don't know how much, but I know like Inbox got bought for $100 million for making a slicker inbox, uh, you know, by Google. And then sort of thrown away. Um, Sunrise got bought. So, so I think that there's potential for an acquisition there by one of the, um, you know, big companies that cares about, you know, enterprise and productivity and whatnot. So there's a, there's a chance there.
I just want to be evil and just clone half of these things on this list.
Yeah, that's not evil. That's, uh, that's not evil.
That's just capitalism. But I do, like, some of these ideas I think are really stellar. I don't know how it's—
I can tell you the one that I would invest in. It's not even one we discussed. I know we got to go. I'll do it in 30 seconds. Company called Duffel. They're doing fast deliveries on college campuses.
And so what they do is a horrible idea. But go ahead.
Not horrible. Not horrible. I'll tell you why. What they do is they buy the popular stuff that kids want, like Ben Jerry's and chips and whatnot, beer. They put it in an apartment and then they deliver it to you on scooter when you order it. So average cart is $16, they make $5 per delivery, and they're delivering in a very lightweight way on the same, in a very tight geographic boundary, so they don't have a bunch of logistical issues. There's a company called Puff or GoPuff. Have you heard of those guys?
No, what's that?
It's this, but it's basically, it's this, and they're doing over $100 million a year right now, and they're just two kids out of, I don't know, Penn State or something like that. I don't know where they are, but somewhere in Middle America. And so I've seen this model work. I think that this is a business idea. Yeah, Puff, or it's good. I think the website's gopuff.com.
You're saying they do $100 million in sales?
Yeah, more than that, I believe. And so they're in— you can see all the different campuses.
So then how profitable are they?
I mean, I don't know all that, right?
I don't have all their financials, but I mean, is $100 million like their net profit, like their— after they pay the driver? I mean, or is it like where the driver gets most of the money and most of them—
so they're, they're at $163 million a year. Is the thing. And I don't think they even raised that much money. Like, let me look at their fundraising for GoPuff. I don't think they raised too much. Oh no, they have now raised a lot.
How much?
$866 million.
Oh, you described it as two kids.
Well, it was SoftBank invested in them recently and is a huge round. So SoftBank backed up the truck in them. But anyways, I think this market works and I actually think it's great that SoftBank backed up the truck. And put the touch of death on this company. If I'm duffel, I believe in what I'm doing. There's a lot of college campuses out there to make this work.
