A look at why roofing seems like a mess job-by-job but becomes predictable when you're investing in the whole industry. Roofs need replacing on a cycle, so across thousands of homes, the pattern holds steady.
Why roofing is an attractive industry. Probably the number one criteria that drives private equity interest is the predictability of that industry, the revenue, the cash flow, all the above. Is roofing predictable? Because on a job level, it isn't. You do a roof maybe once every 20 years, 15 years, it's just not predictable on a job level. But on industry level, it is. Let's say you have a million homes. All those million homes are in different cycle of their roof life. Let's say they do it every 20 years. It's an easier man. On a million homes, that means every year, 50,000 homes need a new roof. So on a remodel, replacement, refurbish aspect, it is predictable on an industry level. On a job specific, customer specific level, not predictable. What matters here is the industry is predictable.
