The Future of Roofing [Predictions for 3-5 Years] w/ Adam Sand

Some are going to get taken out by the IRS mafia and they're going to go get a job at those companies, right? And then some of them are going, you're going to get your YouTube channel shut down.

Let's go.

If you can teach a roofing salesman how to talk about this, then you're going to be able to get yourself a disproportionate amount of success in the market.

Give us some predictions. Give me some predictions that we can say whether they'll be right or wrong actually in a year.

You know what, I actually would like to put this kind of stuff on the record because I myself want to test my future future predicting machine.

Hey, how's it going? It's Tim Brown. And this is the Hook Better Leads podcast. And today I had the pleasure of hanging out with Adam Sand. How you doing, Adam?

Doing great, buddy.

Thanks for the invite. There we go.

Good presidential handshake.

Yes. So we're talking about the future of roofing. What will the next three to five years look like? We'll talk about different time frames, but the point is, is how can you survive and thrive in the next three to five years? Adam, what makes you kind of uniquely qualified to talk about this?

I think that what makes us different is that because of the nature of our unique customer avatar. So you know a lot about this and imagine your audience has to learn about this. You have a, you know, ideal customer avatar of some kind that, you know, you particularly chase. So like in my roofing company, we would say that that would be professionals between 35 and 55 who have teenage kids living in the home. They live in a suburban type house that's got a, you know, it's a two story front attached garage, 612 pitch, 2600 square foot house. And they're usually like a professional or, or a business owner or like military, some kind of service member. Because we feel that those are the people that align most with our marketing, our branding. Right. And so to kind of just nail this a little bit more, we feel that like, say a mechanic wouldn't be an ideal customer avatar for our roofing company because they would look at it and say, well, the dealership charges me out at 140 an hour. They pay me 35. So if I could just find the me in the roofing space, then I wouldn't have to, you know, I wouldn't have to pay that full price. That's not our ideal customer avatar. But a professional or a person who has an insurance brokerage, they understand the risks associated with just hiring a chuck in a truck, for example. And so, you know, we want to find our ideal customer avatar. We want them to have teenagers in the home because we know they're going to stay there for a while because they probably want to leave their kids in a position where they can, you know, finish their high school years, get the best chance at a successful future. And so when you have an ideal customer avatar, but then you start to deal with a specific set of problems over and over and over again, and you can design for that customer. So to answer your question, customer obsessed. Yes. So when we, when we take that into what RBP does. Right. Our consulting company, well, we have built a business around providing, you know, 50, 60, 70, 150. Like we just today sold $192,000 CRM project. That's not every roofing company in the market. There's 180 closed today, just today.

That's a big enough, like, close or I feel like we can congratulate you. That's a great. And I'm sure it's like you're going to be providing an insane amount of value. So it's awesome.

And we do that about once a month. Right. And so, you know, ranging in, in these price ranges and these companies, if you have to think, if you're out there in your roofing company and you're thinking like, oh, geez, 450amonth for my CRM. That's expensive. Oh, gosh, I'm spending extra. Acculinx wants to charge me an extra 500amonth for E Sign. That's expensive. Then you hear about a company spending $192,000 on a CRM. Like, what is the difference between these two companies? Right. And how are they thinking about the industry differently? And so then we see the problems that they're trying to solve, and we see what they're trying to do, and the unpopular opinion that you can't say when you're trying to sell 10,000 roofing companies on using your software. So if you're a company cam or a coaching business or like an online school that's teaching one thing or another, you. You can't say some of the things that we can say. You can't have some of the commerce because you would alienate your audience. But we're not alien.

Some contractors are not great.

Yeah, like that.

Basically, I'm okay with being a little bit forward, but I think it's like.

I say that 80% of contractors don't have a constitutional right to be successful. They have a right to exist. They have a right to their pursuit of happiness. That's their constitutional right. But that doesn't guarantee them that they're going to get there. And that's where I lose some of the audience. The unpopularity comes in and you're okay.

Like, this is my audience. I'm pursuing high level contractors. I do talk to, let's say newer roofers that some of them may not make it and stuff like that. And I think that that is part of this. But in general, like as far as our customer, I'm not, I'm not going after the masses per se. I'm really going after growth mode roofers that are like in it to win it.

And that 20%, they don't give a damn what I have to say. Right. So if your back's up against the wall, it's either because you know I'm right or. Or you don't care and I'm wrong because you're not that guy and you like.

So I would say I'm gonna throw my little of why you should listen to this guy as we talk about the future of roofing. First of all, he's obsessed. The customer experience he's obsessed with, pulls no punches when he tells people how it is. Like, I watch. You're good at clickbait on your lives too. And I always watch him and I always get something out of it of value. And I think you are. You've been really thinking about this topic a lot. Cause I know that you've been, you've been on the panels about it, you've been with a bunch of experts in the roofing industry, thinking and talking about this on a regular basis. And you're going to be also sharing about it in December and roofing process conference. So come check that out because I think in the next three to four months we're going to have a lot more information on what is shaping up to be a recession, which is a lot of opportunity, but it's also a scary time for a lot of people.

So.

So in this next few years, what are you. Give us some predictions. Give me some predictions that we can say whether they'll be right or wrong actually in a year.

You know what, I actually would like to put this kind of stuff on the record because I myself want to test my future predicting machine. Right, exactly. Because all of us here, all we can really do is do the data. Right. And because we build complex systems, I'm really attracted to making database decisions. And so let's start With a little few data points that I think are going to create some opportunities for some and some opportunities to lose for others. So you know, when we look at the, at the housing market and the mortgage market. So right now if you're a loan officer, this is the conversations that you're having. Refinances. So if you had a half a million dollar house, you could reef and it was paid off. You could refinance that mortgage. You know, low interest rates, you could make a $3,000 payment. It was great. And a loan officer would make $10,000 commission off that deal. Right? Well, refinances are down 94%. So refinances are basically all but gone because interest rates are higher. Mortgage applications are down 54%. Million dollar homes that are either projected to build, permitted to build or waiting to awaiting sale by new builders. That graph is going up and there's an inverse line going down for people applying for million dollar mortgages. So you're seeing, and I'm not saying that there's going to be some massive terrible housing crash like 2008. I really don't think we have a systemic problem. But we do have an issue where there is going to be some disruption there and where we have an opportunity.

Give us some, give us. So here's 10 or like. Okay, so look back at this.

If a loan officer is making $20,000 a year ago a month, now they're making $4,000 a month. Do you think that they might be looking for a new career?

Yes, absolutely.

Okay. And with the concerns around a recession. Right. So we have two quarters of negative growth. That used to mean recession. I don't know how it suddenly stopped meaning that. But now. So it might be something to do with things.

The conflicting. I like this, I like the. But it's like the conflicting thing is there's not as much unemployment that you normally see.

The last time we saw that where unemployment was going down and the GDP was going down right before the recession in 1929.

Yeah.

So that would be a really bad thing.

Yeah.

So maybe we don't want that.

We definitely don't want that.

Okay. All right. So it is true.

You think we'll be in the. I'm going to push you on this.

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Do you think we'll be in the depths of a pretty harsh recession in one year from now.

I don't think so.

Okay.

Reason. The reason being is that the revenue per capita is really low. We have become really unproductive as people. But there's this unique thing that hasn't, that didn't exist in 1929, which is a lot of the automation and the ability for us to really capture a lot of GDP that isn't necessarily dependent on human ability. Right. Like we can automate a lot of things that we couldn't automate before. Right. Like the industrial age had really kind of spun up by the 1929. Like we weren't really learning about machines back then, but we're really learning about AI and stuff like that right now. So I don't believe we'll be in the depths of a terrible depression. But I think, I think the economy will still be struggling and I think there will be sectors that are terribly wiped out. Like, like loan financing and recruiting. Yeah, there's another. So I think that.

Because I've seen a lot of like, people just letting go. Like, I think it was like Google that let go of like 100 contract recruiters. Just.

Well, here's a great, here's another great thing. So recruiting in 2021 was the, was the mortgage broker of 2008. In recruiting, there was people working three jobs remote, and recruiters were recruiting people to go take jobs and they were getting paid, you know, 10% of a year's salary or 20% of a year's salary to get people to do placements. And people have going and going from 80 to $120,000 a year in 16 months because of this inability to host hiring fairs and have people come into the office and hire. And people are working two and three jobs, but their bosses only think they're working one job. And so you're going to see unemployment, you're going to see wages go down, you're going to see opportunity there.

There you go. So I. Yeah, that was going to be one of my next questions around. Like in one year, do you think I'm unemployment? Because is that like 3.4 or something? Somewhat historic low. Do you think that will go?

Like, absolutely.

I think that's a really great prediction.

Like, I think, I don't think we're.

Going to get a number just for fun because you said you like to test your predicting. Oh, gosh, that's a weird one. I think you're very smart.

That's why I like to ask, let's say nine.

I think I was going to say 10.

So like, boom, let's say, let's say 9%. Is it, like go with your note in the comments.

Is it? Yeah, that's very good. What would you say is your prediction for unemployment in 2023?

What do you think, July, what do you think interest rates are going to go to?

Oh, I don't know enough about that topic.

I would say 10%.

Okay.

And that's going to hurt some people.

Yeah.

Right. And so that. That combined with the fact that these loan officers are not going to have jobs now, because this is all great, okay. Now we're being doomsday soothsayers and all this kind of stuff, but what does this mean for you? Well, things are going to change in the market, and I think homeowners are going to be looking at financing a lot more. You've seen a lot of new things come out with this inflation reduction and, you know, extending the tax credits for things like solar. And now you're seeing things like the GIF Timberline solar product coming out. F Wave partnered with Fuji Solar.

That was a beautiful thing that we got that for this market. Right. The more people are going to want to do solar.

So you're going to. So if you were. Now, if you're a roofer, go out there saying, I don't know anything about tax credits, credits and like selling a $60,000 solar roof, that's hard, and all this kind of stuff. Who do you think knows about that? Loan officers. Loan officers will know how to capture these clients who would rather take their insurance claim and finance it and keep the money that they get their furniture from their insurance company. Then they could maximize their tax credit by using that financing money to add on solar, and then they could reduce their power bill. So now they're going to reduce their monthly cash flow, keep their insurance claim and finance a better roof that's going to be producing power better for the environment. And then they're going to get this big tax credit. So they're going to get two big wads of cash in the middle of a recession. If you can teach a roofing salesman how to talk about this, then you're going to be able to get yourself a disproportionate amount of success in the market. Now, where is this going to come from? You have to bring in talent. Well, you've never been able to afford that talent because that loan officer could write three deals a month to make 20 grand a month, 30 grand a month, no problem. He wasn't interested in talking about roofing, but now that he's making four grand a month, he's looking for opportunities.

I love it.

And this industry has that opportunity. And so I think if you're a roofer, you need to be trying to reach out to loan officers and showing them that this is an industry. Because you go look at the best solar guys in Hawaii, in Nevada, in California. Look at the best guys, mortgage brokers. Why? Because they understand this stuff. They understand how to say, okay, we can make a payment and, and then we're going to offset it with your solar power. We're going to stand it out 25 years. We use a tax credit to pay down the loan. We're going to partner with a bank that re amortizes the loan by the time you get your tax credit. So when you apply a tax credit, what you're paying for your solar panels, actually less than you used to be paying for power. So you were paying 420amonth for power. Now you're paying 360 on your loan and you're not paying for any power.

Or you could just slow this down to 0.7x and then memorize it and then teach it to your sales guys just from this. So no, but I want to like. So that's a very actionable, specific thing that people could do as an opportunity. What other opportunities do you think like, because that's very actionable. I like it. Is there anything else that you got that's specific that you should, that people should be looking at this next few years as an opportunity in this recession?

So I don't want to give too much away because I really do want to save and I don't want to give it away before I've really like fine tuned my thoughts. I practice a bit at the one industry, one model. The whole thing is to really have this, this, this whole idea formulated for the roofing process conference in December. So I don't want to give too much away because I feel like it's unformulated thoughts.

But, and also I think we're going to know more by then because I think, because I'll have predicting around this recession and I think we're going to like actually have more information because it's unclear right now.

Well, it really, it feels like it.

Could go either way. Well, there's a reason it could go boop and go up again. Well, I've been watching my stock market, you know, stock portfolio go up. So I'm like, what is this?

Yeah, it's, it's tough to predict. And so there's another thing that, you know, we, we heard about the IRS hiring 87,000 agents and whatnot. And so now this is something that we're going to. Politics has become political.

Yeah.

So here's the thing. They did say that they were looking at roofing companies. Like that was said. They said that they. This was released. There was a whistleblower that released it, that roofing companies were. Were an example as to what they.

Need to be of the 1099 employees.

Because of the 1099 employees. Right. And so you're going to see some roofing companies that are going to start getting in trouble because they're going to say, okay, who's this person? Why didn't he pay the right amount of tax? Where is he? We can't find them. So we're going back to the roofing company and then we're going to go and use the like. Like, I mean, they're telling that the like in the job application on the page in the IRS website said that they must be willing to work 50 hours a week, use a firearm and be willing to use physical force on the IRS website. You go look at it like that.

They were 1984 Sheriff of Rottington World.

Robin Hood's gonna be shooting at these guys with arrows. Okay? But the point is that this whole situation with the 1099 workers is going to cause some people because there's people who are within the gray and there's some people who are totally in the green and there's some people who are so far in the red that they're going to be made an example of and they're going to get their kneecaps clipped. And what's going to happen is that those guys are otherwise great business owners, but we have turned a blind eye. We have turned a blind eye to all the illegal work practices in this industry for so long.

Some of them we need to continue to flood, have. Turn a blind eye or it will be a bad. It'd be bad because there's like, well, I get it.

How are you, how are you going to get roofs done without Mexicans? You got one legal guy paying seven other guys cash. How are you going to get your roofs done?

I mean, that's, that's a real thing.

It's absolutely a real thing.

Like, so should we show.

Should we. So the conversation, do we grant them amnesty and start making them pay taxes? And we can't. You can't. You can't.

How do you give me some predictions about that because we got, we got a couple years where I think you're.

Going to see immigration reform. I'm a Canadian trying to become a US Citizen. It is incredibly hard.

Yeah, you're saying it easy. That would be very good for roofing companies.

Yes. If we need the labor, we need to make it easier. It needs to be very easy for a roofing company to a quick labor market investigation and be able to create a pathway to citizenship to bring in labor from other countries who would appreciate.

Do you think that will happen in the next.

Absolutely, 1,000%. Because the GDP needs it. The GDP needs it. In order to cover the bill from COVID They need the tax revenue to cover the social programs that they want to cover as well as to recoup the losses from COVID They need to focus on immigration because you're not, you're having a demographic shift. People are having less babies. So you're having less population growth. We're getting aging population. We're losing seven workers for every one we're bringing up. And so you absolutely need immigration to have a healthy economy.

This, this gentleman has a, is a sales call in about. Yeah, 10, 15 minutes. I want to give you an opportunity to talk about a little bit longer time frame just for fun, because I know that our predictions get a little less good. I mean, mine do at least 10 years out and stuff like that. But I just want to talk about roofing in 10 years because I know you believe there's going to be bigger companies and that is a little bit more like this is going to be full fledged in 10 years and there's going to be kind of roll ups and some stuff that happens that, that consolidates. So how do companies contend with that? Or should they get on board and get rolled up or like, what do you think?

Some are gonna get taken out by the IRS mafia and they're gonna go get a job at those companies. Right. And then some of them are going, you're gonna get your YouTube channel shut down, let's go. And then so some of them are gonna have to go get a job because they don't have a choice. So the industry is really trifurcating into three winners and one loser.

I. Are you sick of what passes for leads these days? What's wrong with sharing leads or Facebook ad leads? Not much, unless you want to be the lowest bidder on every job. I wear a lot of hats, but search engine marketing and website, I've passed off to a Google specialized team.

Okay, so you're going to have four Dodge and Chevy roofing, right? They're going to, they're going to be, they're gonna be nationwide players, they'll be strong players. They're going to focus on mass market services. Right. And you know, they're going to gobble up a lot of the talent in the industry because they can afford to disproportionately pay for higher class, a higher wage right now. Right. To acquire great people. They're in a people acquisition game. They're going to take that. That's that integrator that works for your roofing company that you think is never going to leave because you pay them 160,000 a year. They're going to offer them 400 points to steal them.

And these are like, where are they coming from? You got like big tech, you got like, you got maybe even insurance or.

Like, you got, you got big tech, you got insurance. Manufacturer, I don't know about manufacturer. Insurance is investing in private equity. Private equity is buying interest in roofing. And then you're going to see some warranty stuff happening. Yeah. Then Angie's. And then you're seeing some of our industry friends, right? People in the industry who have grown great businesses. And so you might have to learn who to align with. But then there's a second run, and that's the strong regional player where you build a moat around your business. You may be focused on specialty products, commercial roofing maintenance programs, coatings, things that maybe aren't going to be small potatoes for them or too complicated. It's like a John Wayne head for the hills type thing where you go to the place where the terrain's a little more difficult and they'll say that that's a thing for like Q4, 20, 27. They're going to look at that right now. They're going to focus on Iko shingles, you know what I mean? And they're not necessarily going to go after niche metal products or something like that. So that's a way to build a moat around your business and really focus on designing for the customer. Because some customers won't want to do business with them. That's plain and simple. The third one is some guys are just making good net profit and they're going to wait for the music to stop and when they don't have a chair, they're just going to dip out and run. The fourth one is the people who don't try and be any of those things, they don't pay attention and they're going to lose or they're just Going to fight and fight and fight and they're going to be like the ones who get made fun of by Kevin o' Leary on the Shark Tank. Like they're just the guys who just never are going to get a catch, a break. And it's because they're never going to respond to the real market, the real market conditions.

How can you assess what your strengths are now? Let's say if you're a roofing company that's doing 3 million, for example, and assess what you're doing now and kind of prepare yourself for these inevitable changes, especially this big, like where there's going to be regional and massive players. How would you play? Or would you if you were that person? Like, if I was prepared to be.

Bought, if I was in the United States, I would be looking at how do I either build a moat around my business or how do I position myself for acquisition. Yeah, right. And so I will be talking to some smart people, industry. There's lots of guys out there, you know, you can, there's lots of sponsors of this show. I mean, you want to find your, you want to start looking for some expert help, right? At the end of the day, you are not equipped with the knowledge or the experience to make this decision. You're equipped with other knowledge and other experience allows you to be great at your job. But when it comes to making a great direction for your business over the course of a 10 year timeframe, the smartest people think on the longest possible time horizons. And if you don't have a lot of practice in that because you're busy focusing on the season, the week, the month, the quarter and you're not used to survival.

Now, please, because we all get, we all get in that mode, right? How am I surviving? And sometimes you make worse decisions because you're. I need this business now. Now.

Yeah. And you're really in that entropy, you know that entropy level of business where you're constantly just dealing with a struggle growing, dealing with struggle growing, dealing with a struggle growing, but you're never really plotting a course on a long time horizon. That's where you need to get some expert help. You need to find out, you need to talk to some people, get them to take an honest look at your business and help you chart a path forward. And there's no shame in that, right?

Who would you like besides you? Because I know that you consult with roofing companies. Who, who else in this industry would you suggest as far as consultants or people that could be good people to speak into your process and your systems.

I would say that Randy Brothers, right. He knows a thing or two. You know, he's obviously helped a lot of roofing companies and I think that he is really interested in this kind of thing. I think Hunter obviously having sold Hunter Blue, having sold his roofing company, he knows a fair bit about this. I mean I've seen some really smart guys at Contractor Coach Pro. I don't know how much they know about it, but I would say that they're worth. They're worth talking to. Oh geez. I'm trying to think of who else.

I know you like Riva.

I mean Reva, but I think they're more about actually dominating the market. They're more about dominating. They're the ones who wouldn't tell you business acquisition. They would want you to focus on customer acquisition. They would want to help you get to dominate your market. If you want to build a moat around your business, I think they're probably one of the best people to call.

Talk about systems and how to incorporate some automation into your business. I know that for you the moat is really important in to create some kind of your proposal system, your automation. What are you helping people with to create more moat in their business?

I think we're just trying to so our vision, sorry, our mission is to make work more rewarding through engineering better customer experiences with the profits will show up if we focus on engineering better customer experiences and making the work that our people do more rewarding. So giving them better tools to work with on the digital side and so like and in the company. Right. And so I think some good automations that you're seeing is red like stuff from just reducing double data entry. Making sure you create ways for customers to remain more informed as to the process and giving customers the education they need to feel competent and confident and being able to make their decision. So the easy things to talk about there are going to be like some kind of field service management software like Rivia or Zupa. We build it out for people Sumo.

Quote really that like tells them where it is in the process.

Yeah, it's like letting know where they're at. The some have customer portal type technology. Right. But not just customer portal like hey your install date schedule for this but like hey the guys are on their way. Hey there guys are ripping off your roof. Hey, you know the roof is done. Hey, it's time to pay like you know, creating an uber like experience. People are getting this from buying a $17 sandwich. They should be able to get it from buying a $17,000 roof and it already exists in H vac and plumbing and stuff like that. And it's coming here. We're the ones who are building it. But it's eventually going to become more and more and more present and you want to make sure you're a part of that. And then when it comes to the marketing side, really to build that moat, you have to start producing content. You have to start becoming, you know, as you mentioned, Joseph Hughes, the five Mile famous. Right. And so if you're, you want to make it so you're producing that kind of content, you want to be building a professional presence online. And I'm not doing this just to throw it your way. It just if you don't build a professional presence online, if you're doing two men a year and your website shit and you're using an at Gmail account, like you might as well just go get a job at Apple and like be happy.

I love, I love your ongoing fight with app Gmail accounts on the Internet. Follow this guy on Instagram. Roofing business partner.

Well, the secret, RBP Consulting. RBP consulting and a roofing business partner. So RV Consulting is how we shifted our name because we started to get a lot of people from other industries.

Like I'm probably going to talk with you about next year consulting with us.

Yeah, like we've just found that like our skills are transferable. But one thing I want to say with the Gmail thing, and it's great that you brought this up and it's actually a chance for me to turn this into a possible revenue source someday. By the time this podcast comes out, there might be a thing. But the reason picking fights with Gmails is because I feel that people don't take their business seriously. And I think that's really hard to keep track of your time when you're using a Gmail address because it doesn't have the same tools as a Google G Suite account. Right. And so we're actually working on becoming a Google G Suite partner and we're gonna start helping roofers because I want, my thing is like we're selling these hundred thousand dollar CRMs. We have nothing to help the little guy and so we want to find a way to help the little guy. And one thing that we, the way we're gonna do it is to get them from stop being like ghetto garygmail.com and we're gonna actually get them to be like, you know, Garyhetto roofing.com and actually.

Level it up.

That's a Level up from ghetto garymail.com we want to get them up to actually having their domain represented. I think if we can help people get past the level one step, after they get past some level two, level three problems, they'll come to work with us on the level four. Because we've always said we're not your first money people, we're your last money people.

I like it. I think of ourselves the same. So what could people do now if they wanted to work with you?

Pretty simply the best place to start with us is we usually do CRM audits. So While they're charged 1500 bucks to do a 31 hour session, go through everything from lead to Google review. Review your entire process from start to finish. Give it a score out of 360 bigger companies where there's more of a chain of custody with files going through the offices and they have more moving parts. We'll charge five grand, we'll fly out, we'll go review your process from start to finish. We'll also do our solution extraction which is where we get everybody's opinions on it. We want to create an atmosphere where people be willing to accept change management. It's probably the best way to start working with us is to really let us do an audit. Right. It's like get a medical checkup on your business. Let us put our opinions and our ideas into your business and see what we would do. And if that kind of stuff makes sense then we can talk about what product or service we should implement what next.

And I'll just kind of pitch one of yours. Cuz I like it a lot. Cuz I see a lot of roofing companies with really shitty proposals and presentations and like. So from what I understand there's sumo quote implementations and the work that you've done around making the visual options. So like they have beautiful visual options for pairing roofs with siding and your, your exterior like style elements and stuff. And I think it's a really compelling way to upsell. And so I think people should be looking to you guys for possible sumo quote implementation both on the proposal and maybe even the sales presentation side. Because I think that there's basically a lot of poorly made ones.

Yeah, we try and use the technology to create a consistent deliverable in the sales presentation. You're going to learn all kinds of objection handling and sales techniques from a lot of people out there in the industry. But we just want to create a controlled variable as far as the presentation goes to make it so that at least we're creating a consistent message and making people feel confident and competent and their ability to make a decision. That's the one thing you want them to do in roofing, is whether we're right or wrong. Make a decision, let me know. I mean, and then, and then all the sales and objection handling can come after that.

Awesome. What's the dot com?

This is roofingbusinesspartner.com awesome.

Check that out. Thank you so much for being on the podcast is put on by hookagency.com hookagency all over social. Always a pleasure. Thank you.

Hey, man. Thank you very much.

Yes, sir.