Robert Scoble predicts a Verizon iPhone will shake up carriers in 2011, while Android tablets challenge the iPad. He also expects growth in cloud computing and mentions Google working on self-driving cars.
Robert Scoble, Silicon Valley visionary. Robert, look into your crystal ball. You got your iPad here. What do we have to look forward to in 2011? What would you like also for us to see in 2011?
Well, a lot of us would like to see a Verizon iPhone because we're, you know, the major flaw of this device is that the phone calls still drop and if you live in San Francisco, it's really hard to get.
Isn't that pretty inevitable though? I mean, isn't that a done deal?
It sure seems that way with all the major press reporting, the rumors. So, you know, the Wall Street Journal and techcrunch don't report on something if there's not smoke there, if there's not a fire there. Anyways, that's something we're all looking forward to. And what does that mean and how does it change the mix? Does it actually help AT&T? If 40% of the AT&T customers leave and go to Verizon, it probably will make the AT&T system much better.
Are you shift immediately?
I have a Verizon account already, so yeah, I'll buy a Verizon phone the day it comes out. The other thing we're looking forward to is more slates. Android. I know the Google guys. I talked to Larry Page and he's very keen on slates on trying to compete with the iPad.
Well, they need their business, right, since they've lost everything else to Facebook.
Well, they haven't lost everything else. They're still going to generate billions of dollars of profits. Steve Ballmer at Microsoft is pissed off at the slate at Apple for taking away some of these.
Is the iPad vulnerable to other devices?
I don't see how it is. I just don't see how somebody is going to compete head on with the iPad. I do think that it'll be interesting to see what AHP does with Palm. I like the Palm OS and we haven't yet seen a great device with the Palm OS put in it. If one comes along, that could change things a bit.
What about BlackBerry? Research in Motion?
I'm very skeptical about them and Nokia. I just don't see how they play at the top end of the game, which is where the profits are being made.
And where do you see the next version of the iPad going? It's supposedly out early next June.
Well, my friend who's seen it says it's like going from iPhone1 to iPhone4 all in one jump. So that tells me it's going to have cameras. It's going to have a high res screen and probably a few other toys. We'll see. I haven't seen one yet.
What are the other categories do you think that may catch fire next year that currently are smoldering the tv?
I have a Boxee box, a Roku box, an Apple TV all hooked up to my HD tv and I'm trying to figure out which one is going to catch. So far I'm not all that happy with any of them. Mostly because the TV networks are blocking these things. Right. You can't watch a lot of your favorite shows on these things. You have to still hook up your cable box.
Well, Microsoft are rumored to be coming out with a solution to this and.
They actually might have something because they still have a pretty dominant position in the home because of Xbox. I have a Kinect. I love the Kinect. I think the Kinect is one of the products of the decade. And hook that up with the Media center, which they've been working on for decades. Media center is their TV experience. And if they can crack that nut and get consumers to really say the Microsoft one is better than the Google one or better than the Apple one, I think they have a chance.
It's interesting that you're thinking hardware. I'm guessing then that CES 2011 will be a very big show.
It'll be an interesting inflection point. I'm not sure that you're going to need to go to CES to figure this out. Apple TV's already out. Google TV's already out. We're waiting to see what this new Microsoft thing is going to be. Maybe that'll come out at CES. We're going to obviously see TVs with the Google technology or the Apple technology or the Microsoft technology built in. I think that'll be the. The story I'll be watching for.
And what about on the Internet front, on the software as a service or a platform? What could we expect in 2011?
More of the same.
You mean social?
Well, look at Rackspace, right where I work. We're seeing a huge explosion in cloud computing. And what's driving that? We're all copying Salesforce, right? We all want to.
Steve Gilmore, doesn't he run that now?
Yeah, well, you know him and Marc Benioff. But Benioff was right. He bet on this stuff 10 years ago. And now the world looks like Salesforce does, where you don't have your computing running in your own data centers inside your company. You're going to rent services from the cloud with your credit card so you.
Think Salesforce could be the company of 2011?
They are certainly positioned that way.
Who else? Netflix.
Netflix is going to be white hot as long as netweight neutrality doesn't totally break down. Which Comcast is threatening to blow that all up. Right? Because Comcast is going, hey, Netflix, you're not going to rent a movie straight to my customers without paying a fee.
So one wish for 2011. What do you want? One single thing. Christmas comes early.
I want a Google car.
Google.
If you give me one wish, I want a car that drives itself.
I hope Larry and Sergey are watching. Maybe they'll deliver one for Christmas. Robert Scoble, thank you so much.
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