NNA 59 – Commercial Real Estate Chaos: What’s Going On Out There And How Can You Survive?

This is the no Closer show where you get the latest developments in distressed note investing and learn the secrets of how you can control millions of dollars worth of property for pennies on the dollar. Get educated and entertained by someone who has closed thousands of deals and lives to support you in achieving the same. Now here's your host CEO of We Close notes, Scott Carson. All right, everybody. Hey. Hope you are doing well this Monday. It has been an interesting march, was a march that we will not soon forget and I think April is going to be one of the same too. So guys, hopefully you having had a great weekend, a safe weekend, your Monday's off to have been a great start and that your week is going well for you. Hopefully you're healthy, safe and calm in this chaotic world right now here. So I want to thank you for joining me tonight. Promise I will not keep you past an hour. We should be done a little bit before then actually. But I think you're going to want to take some notes. If anything, make sure take some notes on some of the things we're going to share with you guys tonight here. So as always, hey, Jeffrey Wolfe. How's it going, buddy? Skinny guy. Hey. I guess that's what happens when you shave three, four days of stubble off and you're working out and not eating as much for the most part. So anyway, honored to have you all here. This is your first time to join us here on Note Night in America. Welcome. We do these just about every Monday night. We didn't do one last Monday night because it was a bit of a chaotic time. I was like, let me just see what's going on. But we are recording. I have hit record button and I yes, I did a recording. They are replayed. You can go to all our videos at Weclosenotes TV. They'll take you directly to our YouTube channel. Make sure to subscribe. That's Weclosenotes TV. Lots of great stuff. Got some really great interviews on the Note Close show podcast this week, but you can always catch our videos and all the stuff that we load there. Make sure you subscribe. All these calls are also on Note Night in America podcast as well, plus our Note Closure show podcast as well. But anyway, getting me on that, I want to dive straight into the content tonight. I don't know about you guys, but I was very interested. Come Friday I get an email forwarded to me from a buddy of mine, a coaching student of mine. He was in Austin last year right about the same time and asked me what he thought the market was going to do. And I said, well, I don't have a crystal ball. Who knows what's going to happen with the election. Maybe a pandemic will come in. And sure enough, we've seen a lot of craziness happen. And this is one thing I've been talking about how commercial markets I think have been over leveraged for years. Overpriced for the most part. And I think we're going to see literally. Well, I don't believe we'll see it. I know we're going to see things like what happened over 12 years ago in 2008, but let's dive into it. So I don't know about you guys, but this was the article that was sent to ME After a 50 billion in losses, no one comes to save the mortgage market. This was article in Bloomberg on Friday and she came out Friday, April 3rd at 12:12pm Central Standard Time. And I started reading, I was like oh my gosh. And I spent the weekend going through this article and pulling up the different companies that it talks about. Literally over the last March, in all March, worst losses in the commercial mortgage backed security market out there literally wiped out decades of profit. And here's a look at the numbers. You can see literally this has taken a market group which tracks that stuff and you can see been going up a little bit. 2014 was kind of the Marshall drop down there. They dropped down again here beginning of 2016 in the first quarter there. And it's been kind of back but it's been building, building up. And look at that drop dramatically down, down a ton out there. And if you think about what's going on here with so much stuff being closed and so many people not paying their rent, I mean you look at big companies like Subway Mattress and others, they're like we're just not going to pay the rent. All right, we got to stay in business. We got something to help out. We don't know what's going to happen in the market. And the first thing with them talking about hey let's go ahead and everybody qualifies for a 90 day forbearance. Okay, great. That. But as I said before, we've got a long term issue for short term problem and this is going to go throughout the year. This stuff is not going to happen overnight here with everybody. But the biggest thing that I want on these calls is hopefully to better prepare all of you that are listening so that you can see the opportunities and you can act on those opportunities. The money's made in an up or down market, whether it's a bull market or bear market, there is opportunity being made. So what are you going to do with that information? Are you going to sit around and say, man, I Wish it was 2000. I wish I had gone back the future, gone back in time and bought a whole lot more? Well, now's the opportunity here in 2020. Yeah, some people say 2020 will be the shittiest year yet for a lot of people. And I think for a lot of people though, it's going to be a very positive year if you know exactly how to enact on that. So let's talk about some of that stuff. So the article, this is actually an article, you know, the same article there as well, Bloomberg, but they talked about how the biggest players, the biggest players out there are losing value. We're not talking 5%, 10%, we're talking huge amounts, like literally losing 88%, 2/3. The CMBS market wiped out. Nobody's trading anything. I've been listening to podcasts, I've been talking to people. The mortgage market is at 0 right now. 0. These huge billion dollar players losing 88, 86, 84, 84, 82, 82, 81%, 77, 76, 74, 74%, 73, 72, 72, 71%. Those represent billions in the market. Billions of their portfolio. That's now worth 10 cents on the dollar. Their stuff wiped out in value, lost value. Now that's not saying it can't come back. If the government comes in, there's a big bailout. But can the government really bail out all these people? And it's a mixture. So I went through a lot of these, but we could be here all night and two nights and three nights from now going through everything. So what I did is I pulled up the annual reports, the filings on the three biggest companies on here, the AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Examis Capital and MFA Financial. I would encourage all of you to do the same thing on more than just one or two of them because let's face it, all these big guys, they've got credit lines, they've got some relationships on Wall street that are going to help them out, some things. But there's a lot of them too that need to move. And there's some players we'll get to that we've talked about in the past in a few months on about some things, what's going on in the market. So let's start first diving with the biggest loser right now, whole different thing. AG Mortgage Investment Trust. Okay. And I pulled up their quarterly report Q4 report and this is what they talked about, how they've returned. This is what they're upskilling. This is what they were pitching in Q4 of last year. Now this might be Q3. Q4 looked almost exactly the same. Okay, still going up. Oh yeah, we're doing great even I'm like where ya were you really? That's what they're pitching to their investor investor profile. Okay. Now if you look at their portfolio Q4 investment portfolio, residential mortgage backed securities $2.3 billion, 52.8% of their fair value residential investments 1.49 billion. Commercial investments just under 600 million. You can see the breakdown on some of the things. The residential, the commercial backstreet securities agencies, all this stuff. You can see the percentage of stuff. It's ridiculous. They got so much stuff that's not worth hardly anything. Now same thing here, the residential portfolio details. I knew some of you guys would be interested. Most of these companies are invested in big commercial assets, commercial loans. They do have the stuff. And I wanted to bring this up prime obviously. And this one brings up $242 million of the portfolio alt a subprime. You see what I'm saying? The alt a subprime stuff, 123%. Okay. Now they've only got 8% of the portfolio and 60% in prime. The rest, look at this. Credit risk transfers. 18% of their portfolio non US residential mortgage backed securities is 4% reperforming non performing loans. Look at that there. 34% of their portfolio has been in reperforming or non performing loans. You think they're going to have more non performing stuff now or reperformers that go default. Yeah. And then land related financing makes it a small chunk there. But you have to look. That's literally what they've got and that's why they're dropped. Huge, huge portfolio that now has got stuff. What do we do? Where do we move it? All right, here's what they broke it down to a little bit more in the Q4 on stuff like that. You can see commercial real estate makes up roughly about 26% their real estate, their loans there 44% CMBS and their Freddie Mac case series 28.5%. And the thing is that 34% of the commercial loans are at fixed rates. Two thirds are floating rate coupons. So that's the thing. They've got stuff on their portfolio that now it's going to definitely be non performing, bailed out. Second biggest player in the field after Exantis Capital down 86%, second biggest loss. And here's how they broke out their portfolio for a little bit. They're all over the place. But you can see multifamily loans. We know a lot of people are high in multifamily because it was, oh, it's the hottest thing. Well, you know what? Now if your renters aren't paying, you're not at the hottest market. 54.7% of portfolios in multifamily loans, okay, 13.5% by law office retail 8.5% hotels 12%. The only really thing that may not go down is the self storage market. And that's really not quite their lowest thing. But you can see they have Arizona, Nevada, top 2, 12 and 6% or actually Texas at 17.8% on Exentus Capital. Florida, Georgia, California, South Carolina, you can tell it's spread out there. But the multifamily funds, the funds of investing heavily multifamily, when it goes into, if that's not bailed out, it's going to be a lot of deals available, especially people that thought they were going to get refinanced out in three years. This is what I've been telling people for the last two years. You can't count on the money to be there when the portfolio is dropping the margin calls in there. Nobody's going to refinance your asset. You've got to come to the table and you get refinanced cash out. We're going to see that happen again. So everybody that overpaid for multifamily is going to be hurting here by the end of the year. And how many of them have enough cash reserves to float their costs, to float their things? Doesn't matter if they're paying the payments. If the market value drops, the margin calls from these companies are going to be huge. Okay, here's the thing they talked about. Here's if you invested $100 in January 2018, here's how we've performed. You see Q4 there. That's not the same thing now, okay, they talked about how they moved their portfolio. Exemptus moved it from this 2016. They're making a conscious effort to get to where they're at now being basically 2, 3, 4 on their commercial loans and then 25 to 35% on their other CRE investments. Okay, other commercial real estate investments that could be lending mezzanine loans. Okay, Residential mortgage. That's the thing, guys, there's so many, I mean don't be wrong. They've got some big portfolios now. They'll be selling those portfolios off big, but they're going to be at some point they gotta get busted up, sold off and tranches and things like that. If I remember correctly, Exantis actually broke down in their quarterly. I should have saved this, but I didn't. In here they're showing about how the backed securities and how they invest from high to low. And I'll get to that in a second. Here's the third one, MFA Financial third biggest player to take the biggest crap last week. And here's literally the first press release. It's supposed to be given a 20 cent per share payout to them. Okay. So this came out March 23rd, came out two weeks ago in Unrecogny. Announced that in recent weeks, due to the turmoil in the financial markets resulting from the global pandemic, company institutors have received an unusually high number of margin calls from financing counterparties and have also experienced higher funding costs in respect to its repurchase agreements. Meaning they're having to pay more as repurchase agreements because they're paying due more due diligence. Okay, alright. At the close of business, the company did not meet its margin calls. This was two weeks ago. Okay. Further on, the company notified its financing counterparts it does not expect to be in a position to fund the anticipated volume of future margin calls under its financing arrangement in the near term as a result of market disruption. The company estimates that as of March 20th, the Company's aggregate obligation various financing arrangements approximately 9.5 billion. 9.5 billion. Guys, there is a lot of stuff that's going to be hitting the market. A lot of stuff. It's going to take a while to shake out. You should be taking. You can be making hay now. All right, that's what I'm trying to get at. Be making hay. Okay. Now as I went through, that was a press release and I pulled up their quarterly report and I pulled up their executive summary. You can see literally tells you that's Q4 review on it. So they said they're excited. In the fourth quarter of 2019, our whole loan portfolio growth and performance continue to drive our financial results, poor earnings, basic results that for the fourth quarter 2019, MFA acquired just 1.7 billion of assets, including 1.5 billion of whole loans. They bought one big portfolio of 1.5 billion, another 200 million. Our whole loan investment portfolio increased by more than 2.9 billion in 2019 as our strategy of sourcing From Select Origination Partners continues to generate results. Overall portfolio growth exceeded 1 billion for the year 2019. Whoever they're buying from, they just stopped buying. They just stopped buying. If we flip that a little bit further, further on for the core investment bank, two is our highest of the year. Talk about with the new investment for the year with 5.3 billion, including 4.3 billion a residential whole loan, they bought portfolios. Okay, now the thing is that number one, I was like, what's that number one? And I basically clicked, I looked it further down in the fine print. Number one is they purchased performing loans are compromised of non QM loans, fix and flip loans, single family rental loans, and seasoned performing loans. So it's a mixed bag. And I don't necessarily would say performing loans would be following the non QM or the fix and flip loans or even single family. They're included along with purchased credit impaired loans. They want to say stuff, Ron. Credit impaired loans and residential whole loans held at carrying value on our consolidated balance sheet. Right there. Billions. And they can't make the margin calls. Now this is the big short part due. Okay, the big short part due. So what does that mean for us? Before I dive into that, anybody have any questions, any comments about that stuff? You can literally just google those institutions names and it'll pop to the website and click on their Investor profiles or Q4 earnings report. So much great stuff in all 17 of those companies. That's why I was like, I spent all day working on this as I was like, I can't go through every company. It'd take forever. It's up to you guys to go through that and find opportunities for you guys. Okay, I've got a couple comments here from somebody. Margin call mean? What does it margin call means? So, okay, we'll give you an example. So let's say you lend me 100 grand, all right? On an asset, that's 100 grand. Well, if the value of that asset falls below 100 grand, I have to do one thing. I either have to go out and pledge assets for that difference or I've got to pay you cash. So literally, margin call says, okay, the asset is only worth 80 grand. Now you've got to bring 20 grand to the table. Most of these companies don't have that extra percentage to bring to the table. They're not going to do it because it's free fall and these companies are valuing these assets all the time. Well, most of the time it's not a big deal in an increasing market. Okay, we're not going to have a margin. But when things start hitting, start ticking, start delaying, start going into faults, that value drops on an immediate basis, especially the commercial backed securities. Because a lot of these institutions are non bank institutions. They're not like your Chase. They're not buying Fannie Mae backed securities. They're buying traditional originated from some other institution. So a margin call is like, oh hey, the asset's not worth what you lent me. I got to come to the table 20% or I got to move other assets into that place. Happens all the time. You're not going to be able to buy one offs on those. Well, how would you find. Here's the thing that I'm trying to get at the day of the one off here you're going to wait until 12 months before you probably find one offs. But that's what I'm trying to get at here. Everybody if you can take and what you now you've got a six month timeframe to be up and running by the fourth quarter. You got 90 days to see what happens that shakes out to get start going together. There's billions of assets out there that aren't going to be qualified for bailouts or something that come in. They're going to be sitting there. You've just got to do the work. Okay, so Christie asked the question here. So do these companies hold these loans and how do we reach out to them and see if they want to sell? Yeah, they're not going to sell one off. Most of them are going to be selling large tranches. We're talking millions if not hundreds of millions of dollars probably outside of your budget. But what you have to do is start tracking these players, start tracking where they're at, see who they purchase the loan, see who they got. So earlier on in the year we did a webinar talking about the fourth quarter or the first quarter I can't remember about, hey, how to track assignments of mortgages in different counties and seeing who's going up. So you better bet your ass I'm going back into a couple of counties that we pull and double checking and looking for those institutions or the firms that manage their portfolios for them. Okay, so what does that mean for us? Yes, it's going to get bloody if the government doesn't step in. And a lot of people are right now just like, listen, just give me 30 days. Be kind everybody, don't be an a hole. Give everybody 30 days to figure this out or 60 days to figure this out. Okay? That's why you saw the banks immediately like, oh, we're just going to go to forbearance agreements for 90 days. And someone will automatically go, hey, within 90 days, if we're still in a crappy place, we're going to extend it 180 days. And then what do you have then? Well, you've got. Hopefully people are back to work in some of these agreements. The banks want the borrowers. Okay, now that we've delayed six months for now, you're bringing six months to the table. Well, a lot of them sure as hell don't have that. They don't have three months of payment. They don't have six months of payment. Most people don't have that. What, three. What you can do, everybody here is go to your favorite counties, pull up in your favorite states and cities that you should be looking at, looking at that stuff. Okay, Recommend starting a vulture fund. I don't call it a vulture fund. I'd start talking to your investors, start talking to people, Start reaching out, find out what's going on. Who are they going to sell to? Pay very close attention. Now, it doesn't make sense to start a fund if we don't know what's going to go on. Here's the thing. I don't believe that they're going to get bailed out completely. I think what's going to happen is they're going to incentivize some of these bigger banks and some of these other funds to come in and hopefully buy. That's why in that article, the secondary market was begging for the Fed and others to go in and buy car loans and auto loans and house loans. Go in and buy them up, insure them real fast. Well, it's not going to happen at all. So commercial loans, we all know this, is that they don't have the same type of lending agreements. Okay? There's some people going to get evicted out of the business. When you look at the big firms like we talked about, they may have talked about this before. Subway for 20,000 locations, not paying their rent. Mattress Firm, over 2,000 locations, not paying their rent. I guarantee all the Macy's, the JC Penneys, all those guys aren't going to be paying their rent because they can't afford to after a period of time. And God forbid, your tourist areas too. I know that I've got friends that work for Disney and they're like, oh, yeah, we're going to pay for the end of the month, put you on furloughs. What happens? This goes longer than expected. Are they going to file bankruptcy for protection? You have to look at it. Movies are down, tourism is down, the parks are down. What's going to happen? So that makes up, God forbid, Mickey's got to hand it out. We all know residential loans, especially those that have been newly originated in the last six months and people don't have the money. Most people can barely get into a house and they have less one month rent. 10% of the market was already roughly close to being a month behind on their mortgage. That number is going to skyrocket, especially if we see unemployment rates rise to 10, 15, 15, 20, 32%. You have to start doing your research now, looking in your markets, looking in your top states. It would be a commercial apocalypse. But the same thing here is we've had the commercial apocalypse happen before you. The RTC days, you had commercial loans that were a big default. I mean, when I first got into the Note business in 2008, where I was, that's all I was focusing. I was buying primarily commercial loans. I didn't buy big 5 million and 10 million, but there's a lot of that smaller crumbs, smaller assets that the banks got off their books. Sub million. Hey, there's some great assets I picked up for less than a million bucks or especially below 5 million. All right, think about what some of these companies and go and look at the 16, 17, 18 firms out there. That represents a huge chunk of the market. That still doesn't mean there are still a tremendous amount of other smaller players out there. What's going to happen in the oil industry? Companies are already starting to file bankruptcy in the oil industry. Smaller players at the end of the year. Was it Rick Perry that says something. You wouldn't be surprised if we emerge from this in 12 months and there's really five or six big players out there. Some opportunities to scoop up some assets. But more importantly, start doing your research now. Don't sit around and just binge Netflix all day long. Don't sit around and not put a list together. Okay, We've talked about how often ask this on different webinars and different coaching calls and podcasts. How often are you emailing to your asset managers? Have you built those relationships? I'm so glad we have stuff that's automated now. I'm not going to send it out this month because it doesn't do any good to send out this month. They're still waiting and seeing. But next month, if this thing continues through May, they were already extending the stay at home. It was April 30th. Now it's in the middle of May. If it gets through Memorial Day weekend, yes, it will be a catastrophe. Stan says. Hello, I'm Stan. These are the slides that explain your points. Because you talk so fast, you are hard, Stan. I apologize, bud. You can always go listen to me at half speed if you need to in the podcast, therefore, just that I see things and we talk about that in Asia. The world crisis equals opportunity. That's exactly right. Whoever's anonymous on there, there's opportunity here. And the part of what I'm trying to get at here is not to scare you, but literally shake you awake and try to flip you, smack you upside the head, say, hey, here's some opportunity on the other side. In 2008, remember we started this off again. If you could go back, would you buy more in the past? Okay, so start connecting with asset managers, especially start May 1st. Pull a list. If you have not done that before, been through our virtual workshop, you may want to do so. We have a one day class coming up here in 25th that you may want to check out. But here's the biggest issues is the smaller companies, the landlords are going to be hit the hardest. All right, the whole mess with the whole paycheck thing that's going on right now, the SBA and Bank of America requiring a credit card or a loan for them to approve your application, those are stalling tactics so that they can work with the people that they already have a portfolio with. All right? It's a basic thing. Those two things are more valued at banks than just a checking account. Checking account, savings account. They don't give a rat's ass at banks about that. But if you're a lender, you've got credit, a line of credit with them. That's why bank of Mayors is stalling it. Yes, it's a pretty shitty move compared to like Wells Fargo and Chaser. A lot of people come in and apply for these SBA loans while I have in that relationship. But you gotta be careful about that. All right, you want to look at assets purchased in 2018, 2019, primarily be the ones that are hit the most because the market increased quite a bit. Look in the counties, start doing searches on the county clerk for assignment of mortgages assignments, looking for assets that have closed in the last two years. I think this is why Greg Mardone's bit, because he bought multifamily assets way above value, almost the peak of value. Yeah, that works as long as your market keeps going up. But I guarantee market is not going to the value of those assets, especially if all the landlords stop paying now, he's going to come out at fine. None of those assets are going to probably, I guarantee, be personally accountable for just move on. But the point I'm trying to get at is look at those assets of close looking at all that stuff, taking note who owns it, who's the bank on that stuff right now and stay very close because there'll be some opportunities. And it's not just on finding assets. You guys need to be marketing. Hopefully you've done the time and do what I've said so you can sit back and wait and see. Or is it going to be back to the future? And I believe it's back to the future. As I was putting this presentation together two hours ago, Jamie Dimon came out. You don't know who Jamie Dimon is? He's the CEO of Chase. Biggest or second biggest between him and Citibank. They're going back and forth. He used to be at Citibank back in the day. But anyway, he expects a bad recession in financial strength close to 2008. Now they say that Chase is set up fine. They're going to continue to lend to their small business owners because they've got a war chest. Okay, all right. But he believes that the GPD will be down at least 35% and you'll see unemployment peaking right around Christmas. Ho, ho, ho, here's your pink slip. I know it's barely the second quarter, but you got to plan now. You'll be planting your seeds to harvest later on. What would you be doing? Okay. And I'm going to get to something else too. Over the last couple of years, I've heard plenty of people complain about Goldman Sachs buying all these residential mortgages up from Fannie and Freddie and all those stuff. Well, and they were overpaying, all right. They were overpaying because they were getting that dollar for dollar discount against their fine they got from the sec. How are they going to come out? I guarantee a lot of those individuals that the companies that have bought mortgages and those portfolios from Fannie and Freddie and all them or the FDIC were sweating at their books, the boots looking, hey, what do we pay for and what can we dump? Can we get rid of this for we still come out ahead or at even. Okay, look at your apartment investors. We just talked about this a minute ago. If their big goal, like many apartment was that, hey, buy an asset, regentrify it, boost the rents, well, that just went out the window. Hey, let's boost the rents and we'll get it regentrified in two, three years and cash out. Sorry. Ding, ding, ding. That the music's over with that. So storage investors, I think they're gonna be good because we saw a boom in 2008 where people moved out, got evicted, and they had to put their stuff somewhere. Same thing. Self storage, I think, is a smart play. There's still going to be a lot of stuff that's undervalued in there too, because they can't pay their mortgage. Not paying their mortgage. They're sure as he's not going to pay their self storage facility. Airbnb, your short term rental vacation owners are going to be hit hard as well. So if you know anybody that's in that neck of the woods, hopefully they've got their booking still going good. But more likely if they have cancellations, they're going to have to refund that. So I see a lot of people. I've talked to some friends in Nashville, one of the hottest markets in the country. You know, they're like, we're converting to long term rentals immediately. All right. Oh, hey, we've got a condo project coming on the table. 60 condos, eh? We're not going to turn it into a condo sale. We're going to turn into an apartment complex for the time being, until we get through this for 12 to 24 months. Hotel, motels, huge hotels, motels. We saw so many of them in 2008, 2009. Why? Because when people don't travel, they don't stay. And so I think we're going to see a wave of hotel and motels as people can't afford to pay their mortgage on that. Okay, commercial office building, I think it's going to be. Obviously it's going to be the word center of the crater is people not going back to work, people working from home, strip malls, things like that. Those are the opportunities. So start looking in your neighborhood, start looking around you. Maybe go out to the outskirts of where you're at. If you can drive safely without being arrested or anything like that, look what's available. This is not just talking in your backyard. We're talking every place. Start looking. You see a company on your assignment, see where they're at, go to their website, see where they're lending, see if they publicize their portfolio. Because you may be able to pick up multiple assets with one contact versus just one. I don't know about you guys, but Stanley Kubrick's Full Metal Jacket movie said it best. All right. Said it. Joker. It's a big shit sandwich out there and we're all going to have to take a bite out of it. All right? And that's what it is. Right now. It is kind of a shit show. Pardon my French. The market's reeling all upwards. Now what happens? We get a huge bailout. Okay, great. I just don't think it's going to be big enough to stop it. I think it's going to be. The government right now is sticking their fingers in the dike like a little Dutch boy. Springlink. Spring link here. And as things move across the country and things going for me, I wish I had a crystal ball. I should have brought on a psychic. I had a psychic friend. I should have brought her on because what she thinks is probably just as close to what I think and may be different than what you think. Some markets may not be hit hard, all right, I know Alabama may not be hit hard. Roll tide, right? But New York, Florida, Arizona, wherever you're at, be safe. Ms. Cleo knows exactly. Get her on the phone there, I think. Californiapsychics.com, jeffrey Wolfe. Californiapsychics dot com all right, any questions, comments, concerns from any of you guys out there? She hasn't even cleared her throat yet. That's funny. That's definitely funny. So, guys, it's in a bit of an uproar, but I did not want to not do a call tonight. Start prepping. Here's the thing. You can't figure out what to do. You're like, this sounds like an opportunity. Where do I go? Well, you need to learn first and foremost. We do have an upcoming event April 25th. It's our one day note weekend class. It's all day Saturday, kind of the Cliff Notes version gives you a good start for you. 9am to about 4 or 5pm Central Standard Time is 19 bucks. April 25th is the one we're doing here. You get the replays with it. Can't make it. You can go to noteweekend.com and get signed up for it. That's noteweekend.com comes with an 18 page manual. We're turning that into an ebook as well, which will be giving that out to everybody as well. But it's got links to videos. This is me teaching the entire day on Saturday from basically 9:00am to 4 or 5:00 clock in the afternoon with a little bit of break here and there. But that might be something if you need to get your feet wet. And want to figure out opportunities. I would recommend you take that. 19 bucks is worth the one day for you. Okay. And then when we have our bigger class in May, we're finalizing dates for that. Depending on what happens, you can attend that and that 20 bucks or 19 bucks and go towards the cost of that too for you. But I know there's probably some questions here from people. What is the link? Noteweekend.com is the link for you, Lily, as it spells noteweekend.com IS the link. 19 bucks, guys. It's well worth it for you. Thanks. This helps a lot. It does. Especially in your bigger markets that are being hit. You got to look at your foreclosures. Here's the thing too that people aren't talking about. When you have a six month forbearance agreement or people get delayed and then it's another six months, then you look at the states like six months from now, okay. When we have foreclosures start to decrease here in Texas. Well, six months from now may just be the kickoff in Florida. That that's got a 9 to 12 month foreclosure time frame. So that's going to affect the markets in a variety of reasons too. On the foreclosure wave. It doesn't all happen the same way. Okay. But I'll tell you this, most of the banks are going to give people six months on the residential side, commercial side. Who knows what's going to happen? Okay. Who knows what's going to happen with that? Six months, 12 months. It's going to be interesting here. Okay. Nathan wants to sign me up. Go to noteweekend.com and get signed up and you'll have a get a zoom link sent to you and you'll be good to go there, Nathan. And it's going through, I'll go through a lot of things. You can actually see the schedule on noteweekend.com at the schedule as you scroll down for all of you there to take a look at it. Okay. Can you be a little transparent on your holds people? Okay. I don't get what you're talking about. Well, I have a replay of this. Yes, there's a replay. We always hit replay if you're on here tonight, if you registered for it. We'll get the email out to all of you tonight for everybody. So yep, somebody wanted me to put the link up there again. Okay, just go to noteweekend.com that's the website, noteweekend.com we will have one in May, weekend after Immortal. So I Think we're gonna do our first three day class of the year. I'm glad I waited. Probably the middle of May, probably first or second weekend. Not the first be the second weekend of May is probably the three day class that we're looking at. That'd be a Friday, Saturday, Sunday event. Then you go to we close notes and sign up for that or just drop me an email@scotteeclosenotes.com I guess you don't need to sign up for that, but you might as well go through the cliff notes, the note weekend first and then go from there. Okay. Government forbearances doesn't apply to CFDs. No, they don't apply to contract for deeds. Now if you can get some sort of rental agreement, all depends on probably on how the state comes out of it. Treat it as a rental or treat as a regular note like you have a CFD in Florida and you got to foreclose, you may be able to justify that as a mortgage bailout. Whereas if it's an eviction thing like in Indiana where you're going to evict in 14 days or other states, Michigan where you're going to evict it, it may be more rental agreement. So it's going to play out by state, by state basis on where it's at. Okay. Do I feel safe on your personal stuff? So here's the thing. If you've done the things that you need to do like calling your mortgage bank, calling your credit cards, calling your car companies, student loans, call that stuff there. If you've got money in the bank to save or if you got money in your retirement accounts to save. Hey, guess need to take some money out of your retirement account. You may need to do that. Okay. I don't think we're going to be in too bad a shape personally here. I think we're going to have to tighten our belt like anybody else does. Yeah, I think our personal stuff value there, we bought the stuff at a big discount when we bought stuff. I haven't bought much stuff in the last 12 months because we were working through our portfolio. So I'm not so much worried about the value depreciating some of those. Yeah, values can drop on some of those. But we bought it at roughly $0.30 of as is value and well below 40% of what was owed. So we've got some things. Yeah, deals are taking longer to close. I've had several deals that almost was get closed last week. Then I got pushed to next week. One that was supposed to close in the first of the month. Got pushed to the end of the month now. So that's what you have to keep in mind. There's gonna be some delays depending on where that closing's taking place, what's going on that market. Just be flexible, okay? Just try to remain calm. Don't drink too much. Don't get too stressed out. Laugh a little bit. Go for a walk. If you guys step outside and yell, do so. Okay, questions here. You need a vent? Feel free. You can call me and vent. You can schedule time with Scott. Talkwithscottcarson.com let's talkwithscottcarson.com Take a break from my schedule, everybody. Okay, Any other questions, comments, concerns? I mean, the thing is, if you're in the origination side of the business, I'm sure I've seen this happen across the board, that I've gotten letter after letter and email for email from lenders who have stopped with their origination. They've ceased origination for 30 to 60 days. So let's figure this out. I've seen assets that were supposed to close where we're going to get traditional lending, and they'd be like, oh, we got to wait and reevaluate this. We got to wait and see what happens at the end of the month. All right? So the biggest thing I can tell you here is don't wait around for that. Go out and do other things that you need to do. Okay? Go out and do what you need to do. And the question somebody asked here, K.J. sweet. It's on the 25th. Is our note weekend class. The 25th. That's a Saturday of this month. So it should be the 25th, I believe. Hang on here, let me pull this up just to make sure. It's a Saturday. The replay on a Sunday. Yeah, Saturday 25th. Okay, now if you've already taken one of the note weekend classes in January or February or March, don't worry about it. I think it's just February and March. Don't worry. You can repeat this one coming for free. It's included. Doesn't cost anything extra to repeat on that as well, too. Okay, couple questions, couple comments here. I appreciate. I don't know who Anonymous is, guys. We have our ups and downs. Like anything else, I've got some assets. I know I'm gonna take it and that's okay. I just gotta realize I keep rolling on. Show up one day at a time. One day at a time. Okay, let's see here. Scott says, have you looked into the Next stimulus focused on infrastructure and small business. How do you think that could affect CRE if another 2 trillion still not enough. Yeah, Scott, look, I don't get into the pre beforehand. We did a call with my buddy Jason Bird last Wednesday night talking about the PPP plan and the disaster emergency grant that you all should go do. Self employed or your own businesses go in and file for that $10,000 disaster emergency grant takes about five minutes to do, 10 minutes to do. If you got to pull your numbers real fast for you. But check into that. Look, if the current, if the next stimulus doesn't include rental property or some sort of agreement for commercial, it's going to get a whole lot worse. Okay, when is the next note Camp Nathan asked. You know what, I don't know yet. I'm waiting to see. It's probably going to be June, July probably June for sure. We have been looking at the calendar but who knows? It's too early to tell. I will tell you this, it will be online. I just want to know who I need to have in there because we want to keep it up to date. So I'm not really planning. I have a couple dates outlined for it just loosely on the calendar. I don't have to worry about a hotel or anything. But we'll be doing it probably June. I won't do it in May, we'll probably do it in June and stuff like that. Okay, if no one is buying notes now, how's the best way to see how things come out? And the other when things get back open. So if nobody's buying notes right now, see how things come out. Just reach out, talk to people. Hey, what are you selling? What are you buying? What are you selling? What's selling for? Okay, what do you have on your books? Okay, there may be a deal. Look, and that's the thing too, Julianne, you are very creative. You got your bank to finance your purchase. That might be what you need to do in some cases on some of these smaller players, some of these smaller institutions. Listen, I'll take this off your hands but I'm need you to finance me. That's a very powerful statement. Okay? Oh, I can take it. From non performing to now performing like a newly originated one. That's a very valuable thing. Yeah, the bank takes a little bit of haircut but doesn't take a huge loss. Especially if you can work with the borrowers or the property owners to turn the properties over to you and take it on. So that's the strategy. I think we're going to see and I talked about this like two weeks ago. We're going to see a lot of subject to deals, see a lot of wraparound mortgages I think happen as people can't actually sell but they're still motivated to sell and still people love assets. People always need a roof over their head. Okay guys and gals, that's all I've got for you tonight. Unless there's any other questions out there. Once again, noteweekend.com is our one day class. Saturday, April 25th. The replays are included so if you can't make it, don't worry, you can watch the replays on that following Sunday or Monday. And like I said, it's only 19 bucks. Just me teaching all day. Would love to have you be a part of it. Trust me, we're going some new things. Who knows what's going to happen in the next three weeks. I mean that's the thing. We are T minus what, 18 days out from there's going to be a lot of things happening in the next three weeks. So get signed up for it and hopefully be rocking and rolling for you guys. But be safe. Everybody out there, stay diligent. You don't have to leave your house. Don't leave your house unless you got to do some things. But just be safe. That's all I can say. If you need anything, please don't hesitate to reach out. We'll do the best we can. Either put you in the right spot or put somebody in touch with you. If you just need an event, please don't hesitate. Drop me a message. It's good to talk to people. Okay. It's good to connect and I think I need this as much tonight as maybe some of you guys did. At least getting out and sharing what's going on and be able to vent and see what's going on. So once again, thank you to all of you for joining us here on Note Night in America. And we'll see you off the top. Everybody go take some action. Put some marketing in place, okay? Start making some lists. Start working on your website, Start putting your mailchimp together. Start putting your email templates together. Don't wait around until a month from now. Those things that I'm talking about are so valuable every day. I get on LinkedIn every day again. Today. I harvested another 1500 special asset managers today on Lead Fuse. Okay? Trust me, those things are coming handy as you get closer and we figure out what the heck is going on here. So be safe and we'll see you at the top, everybody. Bye.