The 7 Worst States To Buy Real Estate In The Next Five Years
26 Jun 2024 · 16 min
Scott Carson identifies seven U.S. states to avoid for real estate investment over the next five years, analyzing foreclosure processes, crime rates, affordability, and market conditions. He breaks down why each state presents challenges for investors and what to watch for instead.
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This is the no Closer show where you get the latest developments in distressed note investing and learn the secrets of how you can control millions of dollars worth of property For Panties on the dollar. Get educated and entertained by someone who has closed thousands of deals and lives to support you in achieving the same. Now here's your host CEO of We Close Nodes, Scott Carson.
Hey Real estate investors, this is Scott Carson. I'm known across the country as the Note Guy and I've been an active note investor focused primarily on the niche of non performing notes, distressed mortgage notes on residential commercial properties for almost 20 years now. My company is we close notes.com and I know there's a lot of different things when it comes to the note world. Are you buying performing notes? Are you buying owner finance notes? Are you buying institutional debt? Like I would focus on Are you buying first seconds contract for each There's a lot of questions and it can be very confusing about what you can or cannot do. So one of the great things that we've hosted for the last couple of years that we do on just about a regular monthly basis is we host our one day class called Note Weekend. If you go to noteweekend.com you can register for our free three and a half hour class. We'll talk to you and share with you how you find fun and flip non performing notes. And yes, you can buy non performing notes from banks, hedge funds and a variety of different hard money lenders out there for your own portfolio. No, you don't have to have millions of dollars to dive into the non performing note game. We've got students that have bought plenty of deals with 2530 grand getting their ball rolling using their self directed IRA who are tired of dealing with toilets, tennis trash desks, tired of battling contractors and GCs to get properties rehabbed. We all know the market is changing and while it may not be like 2008, 9 and 10 again, it we do see a lot of distressed debt out there on both the residential and the commercial side. So if you're thinking about diving into the note game, becoming a note investor, a lean lord as you'd like to say, versus the landlord. Or you just want to figure out what it is about the sexy side of real estate in the note space. Well, check it out. Noteweekend.com doesn't cost you anything. 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Love to have you be part of our note family but get signed up today@noteweekend.com thanks and have a great day. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening everybody. Hey welcome this episode of the Note Closure Show. As always, Scott Carson Jacked up to be with the day. Today's episode comes out from a bankingrate.com or a Yahoo Finance article. I think they shared bankingrates.com based on what I read. But talking about the seven worst states to invest in the next five years according to riddles. I mean this is realtors literally coming out saying don't buy in these seven states. These are the worst because of a myriad of issues. Now you know me, I like to give up more than I get. So while we are talking about the top seven, I'm also going to share my top ten so might give you three extra states to avoid. So when you get those list of nos or you're thinking about buying in a specific state, you might want to check out this list and cross those states off your list like I do when I get in a list of real estate or notes or reos from the different banks and hedge funds that we get from a regular basis. So let's get rock and roll. Number one is probably not going to be surprised. It is going to be the California State of Communist. I mean the communist state of California obviously go me wrong. California is a beautiful place. I enjoy visiting there. I love San Diego. Almost moved to Southern California years ago but I'm glad I didn't because when you look at what's taking place in the lawlessness of San Francisco, the amount of drugs and homelessness and crime that's running rampant in there and in la, you really hope San Diego doesn't turn into that. But this is unfortunate. With so much of the haves versus the have nots in the Bear state, it makes it difficult. Plus it's also harder to foreclose there. The government is doing some stupid stuff. If you've got property and trying to sell it, the fact that they're going to go after you if you have real estate else or LLC outside the state, they're trying to do a 10 year clawback. Even if you move, it is just not a good place to buy real estate. And for what you can buy one property there, you can often buy a lot more in other places. So California don't buy there. And I would highly recommend that if you do own there like some of my friends do and you have a ton of equity, it might be time to get the hell out of Dodge, all right, and look for someplace else. You have a lot of people moving from California to Las Vegas to Scottsdale, our great state, the Lone Star state. Texas, especially Austin is like California west. Don't California my Texas. A lot of other places that you can move to there and be beneficial for you. Much more affordability, less crime, less drugs and a whole lot better place to call Mikasa. All right, number two probably is not going to surprise you as well. It is the other sunny coast. God's waiting room. Florida. Now Florida has had the skids, roughly. I mean Florida has always been a longer foreclosure process. It is a great place to live, great place to retire. Just ask half the people from New York or New Jersey that move down there. But Florida's had its issues. Now don't be wrong, I like the government what's going on there. But unfortunately with the storms, the flooding, the lack of insurance or how expensive it is for property insurance. With two of the biggest insurance carriers in State farm and farmers pulling out of the state, it makes for a rough issue where you've got to basically self insure. Florida's always had kind of a longer foreclosure process and so it can leave you hanging. Plus it's gotten a lot more expensive there. With health care costs going up, it's no longer an affordable place to be like it used to be 10 years ago. So yes, you've seen some appreciation. But with erosion and flooding taking place along the coastlines, who knows what's going to happen when the ice, you know, ice caps end up melting. We all know that Miami is actually already flooding and it makes for a different time whether you're on the east coast or the west coast of Florida. I love God's waiting room. But I gotta say bye. Bye. The sun said, I'm buying in Florida. Hate to say that, but it is. It's also. It's become so expensive. But there's a big gap also there in the haves and have nots. You know, a lot of other places you can move to that would be more affordable than Florida. All right, number three, Illinois. You know me, I hate Cook county, or as I call it, Crook County. Illinois's also got his issues. Lost a lot of business. It's a longer foreclosure process. It's not very tenant lender, property owner friendly, high property taxes. It's just not a great place to really get rocking and rolling. And it's had difficulties ever. It just. It makes it for a very difficult time. Oh, hang on here. My slides are going a little crazy here. All right. So yeah, it's been a rougher time in Illinois. Just not a fan there. Long foreclosure, obviously, Chicago has been dealt with crime in quite a bit of time, but it's also a lot of bureaucracy, a lot of red tape is just not a great place. I've got a friend who's trying to build some duplexes or fourplexes a lot, and things just keep dragging out the red tape, the red tape, the red tape. Just not real estate friendly. The next day. Number 4A, the Big Easy, baby. I know it's a great place to live, great food, great entertainment. That's about it. All right. The judicial process of Louisiana is more like the French aspect of courts versus the English courts. Louisiana has been hit very hard. Bad infrastructure. There is also a lot of poverty there. There's limited jobs growth there as well. To be wrong, who doesn't love going out in the night and then walking down the next night down Broadway street and smelling it like piss? I mean, it's a beautiful place. Don't be wrong. The food is great. It's fun to visit. I just would not want to own there. This place has been hit hard since COVID which was like a huge part of the worst foreclosure process foreclosure area. And it's still struggling. Louisiana still leads this nation in foreclosure. So not a great place to buy, not a great place to live. I mean, I guess you would visit like you would with Florida or California. I'm not going to visit Illinois unless I'm going to Wrigley Field, basically. All right, moving on. New Jersey. Hey, New Jersey is more is known for more than just a great smell of Fresh air. I take that back. Or Tony Soprano. New Jersey's also had rough. High property taxes, high cost of living. Medical care in New Jersey is expensive. Insurance is also expensive there. It's also got a second longest foreclosure process in the states behind its neighbor across the park, New New York. It's also got a very big disparity between the has and the have nots. There's a lot of areas that I would not buy in. You will not catch me alive in. I mean that seriously. So there are other places they can go to faster foreclose, more investor friendly, more job friendly, without all the headaches. Moving on after New Jersey. It's its cousin across the toll bridge. L. Big Apple. All right. New York itself is a state does have this high property taxes, high cost of living. Just not a great place. The longest foreclosure process. Horrible to evict here. You know, I knew there's been issues in New York when I started getting lists of apartments from hedge funds and sellers before COVID that they wanted to get rid of the stuff at 60, 70% of the dollars. Now you can't give that stuff away. Yes, people live there. Yes, people buy there. Yes. It's different in different parts of the state. New York is a lot more expensive than say like Niagara Falls or Buffalo. I get it. But it's just not a great place to live the next five years. And it was kind of proven as everybody left, especially New York City to head to the country, to head to other states where it was a little bit easier friendly during COVID Well, they haven't gone back. And when you look at office space plummeting, one just sold, had a value of $500 million, $510 million just sold basically for 130 million. That gives you a bit of an eye, a bit of an insight into apocalypse is taking place in commercial real estate in New York. It's going to be hit hard. Next after that is the coal miners daughter. West Virginia. There's a lot of less, not a lot of industry there. Yes, it's a great place to visit. It's beautiful. But there's a very poor state with coal mines and things like that kind of falling away. There's not a lot of infrastructure that's gone into it. It's only really got two big cities anyway for it. It's just a rough area. Big poor, big poverty. A lot of drug use there as well. So you've got crime. Just a lot of things for people to do. Yes, you can. It's still affordable. Doesn't mean somebody could buy your house if you're ever trying to sell. I think there's other places to go to now. That's the top seven. Let's take it into my eight, nine and ten. That might not surprise you. Number eight, Oregon. Yes, Portland, specifically Austin's sister city, Oregon. You could not pay me to buy a real estate there. Yes, price has gone up, but the communist state and their politics in Oregon is just as bad as its cousin to the south in California. All right, with the cost going up and affordability going down, rents going through the roof, it's very hard to be a property owner there with evictions and the crime rates and what the city wants to do. If to avoid crime, they're literally allowing people basically to commit crime without charging with anything, just like they're doing in California. Anything under a thousand bucks. So I've known a lot of people get the heck out of Oregon moving other places to be more affordable, better, better, you know, courts, better laws, less judicial bullshit, less woke. I would tell you that right now than Oregon, which is being right up there. Number nine, it's northern neighbor, Washington. Seattle is also with issues. Washington is also between the haves and the have nots. You've got great city, beautiful city. Me wrong. I think Seattle is a wonderful place specifically. But unfortunately Washington state also takes forever to foreclose. There's also a big disparity between the haves and the have nots. And crime is on the rise there in Washington state. That's number nine. Now, number 10 may not come as a surprise. You may have forgotten about it, but it was obviously hit very hard during the pandemic. It's also been hit hard with fires and other things going on. This state has struggled with poverty, homeless, huge homeless rates and huge affordability issues for long periods of time. Just as bad as California takes a long time to foreclose in this state to the west. What am I talking about? I'm talking about the Aloha State, Hawaii. Don't be wrong, it's a beautiful place to live, but it's still yet to recover from the COVID the pandemic, of course, the wildfires that took out the hana and all that stuff. So rough, rough aspect there. But when I visit, I've been visiting there for a while. I remember visiting and sitting with a guy having coffee and he was talking about how he was homeless, living in a tent out in the middle of the median, getting up in the morning to go to his storage locker to change clothes or get his computer and go to the, you know, go to his gym to shower because he could not afford a home there. And if you think things are going to even more affordable there, you're wrong. It's going to get even worse. So just because you can buy, and maybe you do want to buy, that's fine. But you better expect to hold that thing for a long, long, long time. So that's my top 10. Let's do a quick recap of this again. These are the states you want to avoid buying it for the next five years. It's just not me saying this, is Realtors saying this as well. And a lot of real estate investors as well. California, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington state and Hawaii. All right, so those would be states. If you're thinking about moving there, just think to visit. Much more affordable to visit and then get the heck out of there and go back home where things are much more normal for you. As always, guys, make sure you like share and subscribe. I have to give a big thank you for you guys that are listening not only to the podcast which continue to make us the number one podcast for note investors, but just recently last 30 days we've had a couple big milestones with our number one YouTube channel. We exceed surpassed the 8, 000 subscriber mark. Thank you. Continues to make us the number one YouTube channel for note investors and then over 400, 000 views on the channel. It's hard to believe that way heads and tails above anybody else. But it's also funny to believe that this is the second YouTube channel that I had to create over the last six or seven years. So thank you so much for listening. Thank you for subscribing like subscribe share, make sure you follow us and we look forward to seeing you guys at the top. Bye Sam.
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