Sean Everett explains how AI is creating a new, fastest layer of change on top of existing pace layers. Software writing software accelerates iteration and creates defensibility gaps, while model drift threatens long-running tasks. He argues you need to upskill now and pair humans with machines to stay competitive.
Chapters
Welcome back to The Emergence, everyone. Another beautiful sunrise here in South Kakalaki. Got our coffee ready to go for the day. Topic of conversation, pace layering. Our strategy friends and system dynamic friends will understand this term, but for us mere mortals, We should probably describe it because there is a shift underway, which is, I wouldn't say disrupting, but adding a new layer to a traditionally thought pace layering system. So let's define what pace layering actually is. There's a classic example in the house example we're going to use, like everyone overuses this example, but nevertheless. So a house, you build a house with concrete, with wood, timber walls, etc., right? So the inside of that house is based on frames and timber, right? So it's very rare that 10, 15, 20, 100 years in the future that you go back into the house and rip a piece of it out and change that. So that pace layer is really slow. Now, what happens when you get the frame up? Well, you start adding sheetrock or drywall, whatever you want to call it. So let's say you added some drywall to it and the plumbing and the electrical system. Again, very slow-paced layering, right? Because at least for the electrical system, they had, um, other stuff in the past before we had, uh— It was like, it was called knob and tube. And this was before we had sort of the new electrical wiring with insulation around it. It basically resisted fire better, and so it was safer. So that pace layering took like 50 years, right? And then insulation. Insulation now is pretty modern, but in the past they used asbestos, so they had to go in and change that out because it wasn't safe for humans, for the users. Um, so it's a slower pace layer, but they didn't rip down the timber frames, right? So while it's a slow-paced layer, it wasn't slower than the frame and the wood itself. So then on top of that, you have things like paint and wallpaper, right? And then, and then inside that, furniture. And then inside that, people wearing clothes. So at each layer, as it gets built up, the pace of change is more and more rapid, more frequent. The wood doesn't change very much. The wiring and the insulation changes a little more frequently. Then, the wallpaper and the paint changes more frequently. Then, the furniture changes more frequently. Then, the individuals in it are changing a lot. They're moving in and out of spaces all of the time, and patterns of events recur in spaces. The Timeless Way of Building book, look that up if you're interested in going deeper there. It's a great one. A lot of tech heads are into that stuff. So, the pace layer, it's changing a lot. And historically, the most rapid pace layer has been considered fashion because trends and fashion and aesthetics typically move in like 5, 10-year cycles. Like the '60s has a certain aesthetic, the '70s, '80s, '90s, early 2000s. But now, because we're planetary interconnected species, Yeah. and TikTok and social media have come on, we've seen these trends start to pick up. So, the pace layer, because of new emergent technologies, has only increased at that highest level, the most rapid vibration pace of change. And so, you see trends here today, gone today. And so, it's no longer like decade, it's like minute by minute, hour by hour. And what you find in that situation is that People end up just eventually going towards the thing they're attracted to. Like, oh, are skinny jeans back in? They're like, hell no, never again. Or like loose-fitting relaxed clothing, is that back in? Has been for a while. And so you see stuff going to like retro tech with wired headphones and old iPods coming back out versus the like streaming services, right? So this move toward analog. And now What we're seeing is the fastest pace layer that we've experienced as a global species, aside from, let's say, virus spreading like COVID, right? That pace layer changed really rapidly. Within a few months, it was like total global lockdown. So that's pretty crazy. AI, though, is a structural foundation for the society and the businesses and the products and services that we build. That pace layer is happening rapidly, more rapidly, but it's still fundamentally limited by the humans who are manually creating these things from scratch. And because they're manually creating these things from scratch, like, humans have to sleep. We have to eat. We have to take care of ourselves and our family and our environment. We've got to clean. We've got to use the restroom, right? All of these things, we've gotta be on calls and talk to other people. We gotta message our friends. We gotta scroll, scroll socials. So we are not operating at lightning speed, the speed of light. However, the minute that AI begins to create more AI, and we're on that precipice where software is writing software, and then these learning loops are starting to occur where it's capturing more data and evidence on what's working, not working, And then reorienting and writing, and then doing that over and over again. As long as it has electricity and computation, it can continue to go. And what we found, at least where we sit in February 2026, is that these things go off track. They call it model drift, is the technical answer to that, on long-running tasks that you do. So, imagine just someone like myself who's going on a diet tribe and they just lose the point of the whole thing and then they're just off on a tangent and we've lost them forever. We got to bring them back and stay on track, stay focused. So, pace layering, what we're now experiencing is a new outer layer. So, at the core, something that moves very, very, very, very slowly. And the outer layer is something that moves very, very, very rapidly. It's a new layer that's developing on the outside of our planet. And the question becomes, what happens as a result of that new, faster-paced layer? What emerges? What new capabilities are possible? What new things do we need to figure out? What new economic systems? What new life experiences? And make no mistake, it's here and it's not stopping. It's only accelerating. On a linear scale, you see the curve, it went like this and it shot straight up. To our conversation previously about scaling sheer rock face and like putting enough pressure such that it moves that growth curve up, we've experienced it. On a log scale, it looks like this, but on a linear scale, it's a complete— it just hitched. In the last year. And that's capability, that's long-running reasoning, that's learning loops, that's capital investment. And there is becoming— there's this old rule in growth and product for those sophisticated folks that have been doing this for decades. Everyone's asking about moats and defensibility and like, where can I put my money, time, energy such that I'm continuing to win in the market and I don't get displaced, don't become obsolete, don't become a commodity. Well, that pace of change, that pace of learning, if you're on this loop and you're just learning that, but someone else, another company, entity, person is growing at a higher rate, then that gap is only increasing over time. That gap is defensibility. In previous conversations throughout the world, What's been understood is that, that learning by an individual, the investment you put in yourself, the money you spend on your education, on your experiences, on trying and failing, that gives you a step ahead because now you know where the potholes are. You can sidestep issues before they come. Every time you do it over and over again, you get better. And back to this old Metaphor, story, whatever you want to call it. A class where the teacher gave 2 teams an objective. One, make the perfect piece of pottery. The other one, make as much pottery as you possibly can, and gave them a set amount of time. The one whose pottery was aesthetically more pleasing, stronger, stood the test of time, was more differentiated, what people wanted more, was the iteration loops, not the one that tried to get it perfect on the first shot. And what's happening at this pace layer? More iteration loops. So it's getting better, faster, stronger, cheaper, and it's also building a bigger gap from the folks, companies, tools, technologies that aren't keeping pace. So there's 2 things that you need to do. One, first of all, you need to get someone in your corner that understands emerging tech. And has been in it a lifetime. 2, you need to get in this game now, and you need to become that person now. It's not too late, but the game is starting to move on without you. And the longer you wait, every second that ticks by, that gap is getting larger and larger and larger and larger and larger. And at some point, you will not be able to catch up. It will be too far gone. No matter how hard you sprint, it's gone. So I'm being direct here because it's very important that you hear this message. You need to get in the game and you need to start playing unique, different, better, faster, stronger, unique, different, durable relationships. You've got to start thinking like a human and a machine. Both together are stronger than one individually. That's the message for today. The pace layer is here. Enjoy your coffee. Witness the emergence. We are here to help. We're here to build things that help. We're not here to destroy. You can feel confident and safe in that. So we're going to keep fighting the good fight. We're out here and, um, nature's got our back. So when in doubt, look to nature. It's the most longest-lasting, strongest, best thing that's ever been created. And, uh, I don't see it going away regardless of what our little human species likes to say in the meantime. So you can't destroy nature. We all exist inside of it. Um, yeah, that's it. Love y'all. Have a great day. Peace.
