Stacy L ChinFounder, KeepYourEquity · I get the government to write you checks

SBIR/STTR “Success Rates” Are Misleading

8 May 2026 · 1 min

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In this monologue, Stacy L. Chin warns that reported success rates for SBIR/STTR programs are often engineered to look better than they truly are. She explains that while the numbers may not be outright false, firms manipulate them through three common tactics: (1) aggressive pre‑client filtering—using long questionnaires, screening calls, and internal scoring to only accept companies that already appear fundable, which inflates the success metric; (2) selective inclusion—excluding projects that fail to progress or meet certain conditions from the reported data, thereby shrinking the denominator; and (3) outright misrepresentation—stretching or lying about the figures. Chin urges listeners to scrutinize how success rates are calculated, what is counted, and what is omitted, emphasizing that understanding the construction of the percentage is essential for making informed decisions.

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The most success rates in this industry are engineered to sell you, not inform you. They're not false, but they're often built in a way that makes them look far better than reality. And if you don't understand how they're calculated, you're making decisions on incomplete data. Typically, there are 3 ways firms can arrive at these numbers. First, they filter aggressively before you become a client. Long questionnaires, screening calls, internal scoring, all designed to only take on companies that already look fundable, and that alone will boost their numbers. Second, they control what counts. If a project doesn't move forward or doesn't meet certain conditions, it may quietly get excluded from their reported data. So the success rate you often see is often based on a much smaller curated pool. And third, some firms simply just stretch the truth or misrepresent the numbers. Bottom line, they're just flat out lying to you. So when you hear a success rate, don't just take it at face value. Ask how it's calculated, what gets included, and what gets left out. Focus on how that percentage is built because that's where the truth actually is.