Stacy L ChinFounder, KeepYourEquity · I get the government to write you checks

The Truth About SBIR “Success Rates” (Most Are Misleading)

11 May 2026 · 1 min

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In this brief commentary, Stacy L. Chin warns founders that advertised high grant‑writing success rates (e.g., 60‑70%) are often misleading marketing tools. She explains that the actual funding rates for many SBIR and federal R&D programs hover around 10%, and that proposal writing is only a small component of a much larger decision‑making system. Funding outcomes depend on program priorities, budget constraints, portfolio balance, the fit of the innovation with agency goals, and unseen behind‑the‑scenes dynamics. Consequently, while strong writing helps, founders should prioritize partners who can provide strategic guidance on positioning, fit, and timing rather than relying on quoted success‑rate metrics.

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High success rates in grant writing is probably one of the most misleading signals founders rely on, and they're used as a marketing tactic far more often than they should be. Of course, every founder wants to get funded, so when a firm claims a 60 or 70% success rate, it sounds compelling. But here's the reality. The average funding rate for many SBIRs and federal R&D programs is often around 10%, and the writing of the proposal is only one small piece of a larger system. Funding decisions are influenced by program priorities, budget allocations, portfolio balance, and how well your innovation fits what the agency is trying to achieve at the moment. And there are also dynamics happening behind the scenes. That are not visible to most applicants. So while a strong writer matters, success rates alone are not a reliable way to evaluate who you should work with. What matters more is someone who can guide you strategically through the positioning, fit, and timing within the broader landscape.