Tim Hubbard breaks down AirDNA data showing STR supply growth slowing to 4.7% nationally in 2025, but specific markets are exploding: Phoenix more than doubled its listings, Destin jumped 31%, and Gulf Shores grew 36%. More supply without demand to match means falling prices and returns.
Questions this video answers
4.7% (nationwide expected for 2025).
Around 3,700 → 5,400 (31% increase).
About 6,100 → 15,200 (more than double).
Around 635 → 1,400 (55% increase).
From 9,400 → 14,800 (36% increase); growth now holding steady.
Chapters
In a recent report from airdna, their projections for the rest of the year and going forward are that supply basically tapered off where it was growing at 10, 15, 20% per year over the last few years. It's now just a little under 5% at 4.7% nationwide expected for 2025. Now even though that overall number is positive, it doesn't mean that all markets are actually growing. And so I've got a few of them for you right here. The first one is Destin. So if we go back three years in Dest, in Florida, they had around 3700 short term rental units on the market. Fast forward to today, 5,400. That's a 31% increase. So if you're already in that market, you can expect that you're not going to have more downward pressure on your prices in Phoenix. So really big city, right? If we go back to June 2022, they had 6,100 units roughly. Now they have more than double that, 15,200. Sacramento, another popular market and one where I have properties as well. If we go way back To June of 2022, there's around 635 short term rental units there. Now I have this segmented out to the downtown midtown area where my properties happen to be. Fast forward to today, 1400 properties. That is a 55% increase. We have Gulf Shores, which grew from 9400 to 14,800 as of this year, which is a 36% increase that they are, however, not continuing to grow. So they're sort of holding steady. And then lastly, we have one market that's seen quite possibly the biggest amount of growth over the few years and that is Gatlinburg, Tennessee. And it's gone from 8,700 units to 15,300 just in a few years. That's a 43% increase. Now if we look at the actual supply in this market, they're actually decreasing. So a lot of properties came on the market. What does that do to your overall prices and returns? Unfortunately, that brings it down if demand is not staying equal, and that's what we're seeing in this market.
