Bitcoin: About To Break Out... Don't Miss This Entry

What's up guys? Welcome back to another video. Once more we have managed to do it again, capturing the move for yesterday with an easy four hour trade opportunity based on what I marked out for you guys yesterday. And look at where price stopped at exactly at the February gap that we marked out. And so trade for today might just be if you're going short, you know it's going to look something like this four hour trade, even if your risk or even if your entry is like wider, still going to be a easy 2R opportunity. That is towards the downside on the one hourly chart. And guys, this is what makes this system so worth using. It's just high precision. You mark out some scenarios and boom, like it just plays out. And so far this puts us on 55 wins out of 65, sorry, 67 calls since February on publicly called trades on YouTube. So this is just for the ones that are new to this channel. You should be in the right place because I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. We are currently sitting at about an 80% win rate on all of the calls. So in this video I'm going to try to do the same, maintain the streak and to give you guys the playbook on what to do today. First of all, we have to start off with these relative equal highs. Yesterday we talked about how these highs would be swept and boom, today we are getting it. And secondly, we also talked about how we are currently in a range and this remains to be the range lows. So currently the scenario that we talked about yesterday, sweeping out the range highs before potentially reversing down to the range lows, seems like is playing out. And just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about here, currently as of the time that I'm recording this, which is what, like 5:00am New York, we have just confirmed a change in state of delivery on the one hourly chart. So let me just put this as CISD so that we don't lose track of this. We are getting CISD after sweeping out the highs that we were anticipating to be swept yesterday. And currently we have identified that we are in a range range high, range low. And if things stay the way they are, it's looking like we are going to head back down to $102,000 because there are relative equal lows here which tends to get swept just like how these relative equal highs got swept. But just to not confuse you right off the get go, let's kick things off on the weekly chart. Weekly chart, we are still looking bullish last week's candle closed bullish. And so this week's buy should be towards the upside. Ideally, want to see a fill of that weekly F gap before we continue moving on to the upside. But that may or may not happen. Either way, we are prepared for any scenario. If price just continues to go straight up from here, then we of course, momentum trade. But for reasons mentioned just now, the fact that we are in range at the moment means that there is a likelihood that we are in fact not going to just pump straight up. But let's take a look on the weekly, sorry, the daily chart to see if that scenario is indeed, you know, something that can happen to kick things off. We have this bullish order block over here on the daily chart. And for prices to continue higher, you do not want to see price break below this order block. And you can sweep below it, just like what you did with this candle does not invalidate the order block at all. But ideally, you do not want to be closing below this. Now, even if it does close below, though, the fact that we have done our higher time frame analysis is also the importance of why we want to do, you know, we want to start things off in the higher time frame so that we are never getting lost in the lower time frame noise. A lot of people will look at this like, let's say if price goes below here, this would be, you know, change of character. This is a market structure break. This is bos, this is cisd, this is whatever. All of this is happening. Yeah, sure, but happening into where? Well, in this case, you have relative equal lows heading into the fever gap. And so this wouldn't be, you know, we wouldn't be caught off guard just purely by the fact that we have done our higher time frame analysis. And this is why it's so important to start high and then go low. So currently, like, this seems to be the block that needs to be, you know, support for price to, you know, go higher or potentially. The fact that yesterday's candle closed Bullish means that this is now also an order block. Right? This is a validated order block, which means if price actually just shoots out from here, this is also a likely scenario. So currently we have scenario one, scenario two, and then scenario three. Now let's zoom into the lower time frames to make more sense of this so that we know exactly which one is more likely to happen. So going off on the 1 hourly chart at the moment, again, this is a favor filled just like yesterday and price eventually reversed during the New York PM session. One of the things that I do want to kind of explain is that whatever setups that I'm giving you is mostly going to be predicated on the New York AM session. Being Asian and currently living in Asia, I don't really have the luxury of trading New York PM session. So it can be really tough for me to anticipate what is going to happen on the New York PM session. Just understand that a lot of these trades are going to be coming from the New York AM session. So in terms of yesterday's accuracy and based on what I've called the new AM session indeed played out in the in the way that we were anticipating. I currently we have a change in state of delivery to the bearish side at the moment. But we're going to have hop onto the five minute just to make a little bit more sense of this. And this is when we start to get a bit more clarity because prior to the London session, or rather during the London session, price has swept above the Asia highs and is currently breaking lower. So this is looking like another AM potentially distribution type of setup. Which means the setup for today could potentially be just like yesterday where we had Asia accumulation. London breaks lower right? But this was a breakout. But ultimately New York was continuation. It's also the reason why I drew out this block right here and told you guys to look for price to return back into this block sometime close to the New York kill zone. In this case, we returned back to it about an hour before the New York kill zone and ultimately you started breaking lower and that's how we ended up with this four our trade. And by the way, if you guys manage to make money from the calls that I've made in this videos, do drop it down in the comment section below. Like me, speaking to the camera means that I don't get the luxury of knowing if you know what I'm sharing is helpful and you guys comments and trust me, I read every single one of the comments. Thank you so much for your support in the recent couple of weeks since we have basically doubled our views across, you know, all of the videos, just know that I am reading the comments. I may not have time to reply to it, but your comments truly help keep me motivated. If I have made a difference, just let me know down in the comment section below. Otherwise today is again accumulation, manipulation and distribution. The thing that you want to be looking for in this case put a short setup is actually going to go into the one hour chart just to see if we have anything that we missed and boom. Indeed, it was a good move for me to go onto the one hourly chart because this is a fair 30 gap. Now that narrows down our levels much more. So essentially what you want to look for is for price to return back into this fairly gap sometime in between, you know, 6 to 7, maybe 8am New York and then for price to actually show a willingness to continue downwards. And that's the key word right here. The willingness to continue downwards is exactly the thing that will confirm if a short scenario is going to play out or if a long scenario is going to play out. But I'm going to discuss the long scenario in just a bit. But for now the short scenario is currently Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York retrace and then distribution. And the thing that you want to look for is order flow to confirm this. So what is order flow? Essentially this is a bearish order block, right? The fact that price is retracing into this bearish order block is being, you know, it's kind of respecting the bearish order block means that currently we are in bearish order flow. On the flip side of things, when you are in bullish order flow, price tends to make, you know, higher highs, higher lows. But most importantly the order blocks tend to get respected, right? Bullish order block, price breaks out, retraces back into the bullish order block and starts breaking higher. So that would signify bullish order flow. And it also like what it really tells you is that price is willing. There is a willingness for price to go to the upside and that's what you want to look for. So in terms of the date retrace back into this area, willingness to go lower, that will be your setup and the target for today. If we were to go onto the one hourly chart, so look for previous sing lows, it'll be right there, the first target at 105887. But there is maybe potential for price to return all the way back to 104. Although given the fact that we have no news today, just give you an idea. If we take a look at Forex factory today, we have no news. The news for today is already over in the sense that that's the great British pound news and it was already over like three hours ago. So news will actually hit tomorrow, 9:45am and the reason why I bring up news is that at any given moment you always have three variables that you are looking at when you're trading. And the first one is the direction of price. Is it going to go higher or is it going to go Lower. The second is how far up it's going to go, how low is it going to fall. And the third is timing. And the benefit of having news is that you pretty much remove the third variable, knowing that around 9:45am you're going to see volatility come into the market. You know for a fact that know price was very likely to move. Move, that's the keyword at 9:45am so your job is to just narrow down the first two variables and that makes your job as a trader a lot easier. Today we do not have news, so I cannot tell if today is going to be a very volatile day or not. But what I can give you is the direction. Now, as for how far the price is going to go, we can make some predictions, right? This is one of them. Secondly, you have this photo gap over here. Although ideally you don't want to be looking at PD arrays to set targets. Yeah. So this level right here would be the previous daily low, which, by the way, we completely nailed the previous daily low. Like, we called for Price to come here, Price came here and boom, that was the low of the day. Boom. Reversal. Although I did not, you know, call the reversal. Don't get me wrong, it's the New York PM session. I've already explained why I don't discuss the New York PM session. So, yeah, that's the low of the day. So today targets could be this one, could be this one, and it could be this one. Right. Three levels that you look at. As for which one's going to get hit, I have no idea. But we prepare for whatever scenario happens. And now that you guys have the playbook for today, I think there are just two more, you know, minor scenarios that we need to talk about. First of all, this is the scenario that I think is more likely to happen or like most likely to happen. But it's also good to prepare for other scenarios. I always say this, and I will repeat it until the day I die. The job of a trader is not to predict what the market's going to do next. It's more of like preparing scenarios beforehand and the conditions that would, you know, allow these scenarios to be validated. And then let's say, okay, when these conditions are met, okay, this is looking like scenario B because you already planned for the scenario beforehand, you know exactly what to do for it. For example, this is scenario A, right. Like, based on a higher time frame, it's looking bearish. And so if Price retraces into this level around the New York session, then we take a trade short, pretty simple targeting here and here, for example, that's scenario B. And then you have, you know, now let's talk about scenario A, which is maybe Price will not retrace back into this fav gap, but maybe it can just start breaking lower from this order block right away. And if this happens, then we just momentum trade all the way lower during the New York session. Again, I think this is less likely to happen compared to coming back into the fairly gap because you have relatively equal lows here on the five minute sweep this out. Boom. That makes a lot of sense. And then you have your third scenario, which is the bullish side of things. Remember, if we take a look at the daily chart, we are technically in bullish order flow in the sense that Price has been respecting bullish order blocks since a few weeks ago or a couple months ago, right? That's your bullish order block. Price breaks up, retraces, boom, right, heads up. And this is your bullish order block. Price shoots up, comes down, heads up. So currently we are in bullish order flow, which means that with this break above this order block right now, the higher likelihood outcome would actually be for Price to find support here to continue pumping. And so we need to prepare for that contingency. Also on the weekly chart, we are still in bullish order flow and last week's kind of closed bullish. So we have reasons to be bullish. And so let's take a look at what would need to happen in order for us to, you know, just start taking trades towards the long direction. And currently Price is in this, this one hourly bullish order block at the moment, which means that you could very well just sweep out this low and start finding support and just start reversing. And to confirm that, we will need to go onto the five minute chart. What we want to see specifically happen is if this level gets taken out, it will also coincide with the Asian low getting taken out. We want to see a change in state of delivery, essentially. We want to see bullish order blocks and bullish PD start to get respected. And then we would ideally take a little bit of profit at this five day gap here, because we know that there is reason for us to be bearish at this fair gap right here. But most importantly, you want to see Price close above this favorite gap, right? Especially on the one hourly chart. Specifically on the one hourly chart. See how I'm, you know, coming up with these conditions for in this scenario that's about to happen now, you want to ideally take a Little bit of profit at the start of this fair bit gap. Because again, we have reasons to believe that price is going to hit lower, right? This is a range high sweep and price is showing changes that are delivering. Now we also have reasons to be bullish, which is what makes range trading so tough. It's that there is always a reason for price to go up or down, which is why a lot of people tend to get, you know, screwed up in ranges. And the key to like successfully playing ranges is number one, understanding that you are in a range so that you can prepare for it. For example, in a trending condition you might set your profit target really far away. And that's the right thing to do when you're in trending conditions. But when you're in range you can anticipate that, you know, things could change at any moment. And so we take our profits quicker, we place our stop loss a bit tighter and we play the smaller moves rather than try to catch a big, big home run winner in this case. This is one of those examples where we have reasons to believe that price could potentially sweep this low pump and then potentially even go lower. Right? We have reasons to believe that price could sweep this come up. But then we also have reason to believe that this could be potential rejection. We take some profit here and if price decides to go higher, we can always add to our position, right? Take another position. Once this fair value gap is closed above price comes back down, turn it into support and then we can start maybe adding another position to it and then taking profit at the high or even at the expansion, you know, close to the previous all time high. So this is how we kind of navigate ranging conditions as a trader to ensure that yeah, we're still making money and we're not getting chopped up. Just to break down the two most likely scenarios that I think is going to happen. One is sometime during the New York session you're going to sweep this low and if you start showing bullish changes to delivery, you can start taking a trade here, take some profit here, but then, and then be cautious. If price ends up being bullish and breaks above the fevity gap, then boom, you can add to another trade here and to take profit at the previous day high or even add expansions. Secondly is currently based on what price action is telling me or like based on current price action. It's more, it's more likely scenario is that you will retrace back into this fav gap sometime during the New York AM kill zone and you're going to Start heading lower. Target's going to be right here as well as right here as the previous daily low. You could also stop at this level right here, which I'm going to draw out at $105,000. And, yeah, that's pretty much it. Sorry for. I do apologize for the little convoluted, you know, explanation or the long explanation. I know a lot of you do appreciate this. Some of you who have really short attention spans don't really appreciate this. And that's fine. It's not the people that I'm trying to, you know, help. Ultimately, you guys who are watching this channel, I think appreciate the fact that I share a lot of these lessons and I share why I think the way that I do, why I'm making certain decisions. Hopefully this will help you guys make better decisions too. Otherwise, yeah, pretty straightforward. We're still within a range. Currently, we're at a range high and deviating above the high. So we have reasons to believe that it's very likely to go downwards. But taking a look at the, you know, daily time frame and the weekly time frame, we are in a strong bullish trend. So this makes it a little bit complicated, which is why I'm going to suggest caution in the sense that, you know, we take our profits a little bit sooner today and wait for more trending conditions to show itself. And by that point, I'm going to be just straight up like, okay, guys, we're going to set our TP here. Sorry, we're going to set our entry here and we're going to take profit all the way up there. That's where when training market conditions come back into play currently, again, just want to show you how much we've been chopping around and for now we're going to play it safe. If you get a clear break above the range high, by the way, if today closes bullish, if that bullish scenario that I told told you about actually plays out, then that would be the go signal for us to, you know, start, you know, just trend trading. But until that happens, going to play it cautious. And so hope you guys understand the long explanation in the video today. But otherwise, if there are any of you out there who would like to work with me one on one to go full time into trading. Yes, I work with you one on one. I'm on the calls with you, undoing everything with you and holding you. Then feel free to click the first link in the description box below and check out Bootcamp. But that is not going to be relevant for a lot of people. But if that is something that you're not interested in, then that's perfectly fine as well. I just mention it in case it may be relevant for some of you watching this video, but otherwise, I'll see you in the next one. Cheers.